Micron Document

The outlier map: who's where, and the surprises in between

Analysis - 2026-05-29 - by The Mild Take

outliers, overview, rankings


Abstract

With all 193 UN members assessed, the shape of the board is clear enough to read
at a glance. The top is small, rich, and institutionally boring. The bottom
is conflict and state collapse. The interesting story is in the residuals,
the countries that rank far from where a reader's priors would put them. This is
the map, decision by decision, with the surprises called out.

The top: stability compounds

For living, the top ten are Norway (6.67), Switzerland (6.60), Luxembourg
(6.42), Iceland (5.54), Liechtenstein (5.38), Denmark (5.12), Austria (5.10),
Slovenia (4.83), Finland (4.64), Estonia (4.51). On assets and currency
the same cluster reshuffles. Switzerland takes the top of both, with Singapore
breaking in at #4/#3. The pattern: small open economies with deep institutions,
independent central banks, and no large adversaries on the border. None of them
score top marks on any single dramatic factor; they win by having no weak
category. A confidence-weighted average rewards the absence of holes more than
the presence of peaks.

The floor: the read is unanimous

The bottom ten for living are Sudan (-8.99), Haiti (-8.46), North Korea (-7.94),
Yemen (-7.64), Myanmar (-7.60), Afghanistan (-7.39), South Sudan (-6.95),
Eritrea (-6.54), Cuba (-6.38), and Iran (-6.32). None of this is controversial. Active war,
state collapse, or totalitarian closure drag every category down at once. Where a
state runs only captured or state media, that institution is excluded rather
than scored as neutral, which is why closed regimes don't accidentally float up
on thin data; they are flagged low-confidence and low-score.

The surprises (this is the point of the exercise)

Uruguay (#17, living 3.74) leads the Americas, above Canada (#37), Chile
(#31), and Costa Rica (#34). Quiet institutions, low corruption, stable
democracy, no adversaries. The Americas' best living read is not the obvious
G7 name.
Mauritius (#22) and Botswana (#25) lead Africa, ahead of South Africa
(#69). Decades of stable, lawful governance outscore raw size.
Singapore (#15) tops Asia for assets and currency despite a thin civil-
liberties score. Its economic and institutional reliability carry it for the
money decisions specifically.
The United States (#173) is the marquee outlier and has its own piece: a rich democracy scoring in the
bottom decile because the framework prices institutional trajectory, not
prosperity.
China (#159) ranks above the US on living, and below it near-term on
assets/currency, because the dollar cushion is still real. They land in the
same neighborhood by opposite routes.

Discussion

The top and bottom validate the framework (they match consensus); the middle is
where it earns its keep. If your mental ranking of "good places" puts the large,
famous, rich democracies on top and small countries you rarely think about in the
middle, the board will feel wrong in exactly the places the methodology is
designed to surprise you: it is scoring observable stability and direction,
not GDP, soft power, or reputation.

Limitations

Mid-table scores (roughly -1 to +1) are the least robust. They often reflect one
or two swing factors and modest confidence, so small data revisions move ranks by
double digits there. Treat the clusters (top cluster, recovery-skew cluster,
floor) as the durable signal and the exact ordinal rank within the middle as
noisy.

What would change this

The top cluster is stable barring a security shock to a neutral small state; the
floor changes only when a war ends or a regime opens. The middle is where the
next year's movement will be. Watch the positive-skew recovery cases and any
institutional slippage among today's mid-table democracies.

Open the grid (https://themildtake.com/ratings/) and sort by each decision to see the reshuffle.