- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights rebuilt from independent sources (World Bank/UN estimates, V-Dem, RSF, Freedom House, HRW, Amnesty, OHCHR/UNAMA, ACLED) + exile press; Taliban regime claims EXCLUDED on governance/rights/statistics.

- Data limitation: official statistics collapsed after 2021, so economic figures are external estimates and confidence is reduced.

- Standout drags: a Taliban theocracy with gender apartheid, a collapsed aid-dependent economy, a frozen-reserves/sanctions isolation, and a severe climate/health catastrophe. Overall: clearly negative.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A collapsed, aid-dependent, sanctioned economy with frozen reserves. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 75% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 65% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - A post-2021 collapse, aid- and UN-cash-dependent, with ~$9bn reserves frozen abroad and sanctioned. (World Bank estimates)

Monetary Independence - The central bank is cut off from the global system with reserves frozen - isolated and constrained. (World Bank)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Not held externally. (definitional)

Inflation - The afghani is oddly stable but volatile, with deflation giving way to mild inflation. (World Bank)

Banking Stability - Broken and SWIFT-cut, with the formal sector barely functioning. (World Bank/UN)

Trade Actions Capacity - Subsistence agriculture and unexploited mining, with the opium ban shifting to meth - isolated and aid-dependent. (World Bank/UNODC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.29 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -5.29 │ 60% │

│ long │ -5.29 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A Taliban theocracy with no recognized rule of law, collapsed data, and among the worst press repression. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 70% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘

Rule Of Law - A Taliban theocracy ruling by Sharia edict, with no recognized rule of law. (V-Dem/Freedom House bottom; UNAMA)

Statistical Integrity - Official data collapsed and unusable; estimates come from external bodies. (World Bank)

Civil Service Capacity - Collapsed and gender-purged, with capacity gutted. (UNDP/World Bank)

Press Freedom - Near the RSF bottom, with live political broadcasts banned and journalists detained. (RSF/CPJ; HRW 2026)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces hold executive power directly. In some cases an armed movement governs as the state. There is no civilian principal to control them.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -8.43 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -8.43 │ 60% │

│ long │ -8.43 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Consolidated but unrecognized Taliban control, gender apartheid, and a refugee-producing humanitarian catastrophe. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -4.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 90% │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 70% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘

Political Stability - Consolidated Taliban control with no organized challenger - suppressed stability - but internationally unrecognized, with ISKP attacks and succession risk. (ICG)

Civil Liberties - Gender apartheid - women banned from education beyond grade six, work, and public life - among the world's worst. (HRW; Amnesty; OHCHR; UN Women)

Treatment Non Citizens - Refugee-producing, with millions of forced returns absorbed amid crisis. (UNHCR/IOM)

Social Cohesion - Repressed, with Pashtun-dominated tensions and a humanitarian catastrophe. (OCHA; HRW)

Demographics - Very young and high-fertility, but a human-capital catastrophe from the female-education ban. (UN; HRW)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.20 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -6.65 │ 60% │

│ long │ -7.10 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Isolated and largely unrecognized, with active border conflicts and frozen reserves. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 75% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Largely unrecognized, with pragmatic China/Russia/Gulf engagement - isolated. (ICG)

Conflict Involvement - An ISKP insurgency plus 2025-26 Pakistan/TTP border clashes and an Iran water dispute. (HSToday; Lowy)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Heavily sanctioned, with reserves frozen and capital isolated. (US Treasury; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.85 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -6.85 │ 60% │

│ long │ -6.85 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A severe climate and health catastrophe atop poor war-damaged infrastructure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 80% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - ND-GAIN bottom-decile vulnerability plus near-zero readiness - drought, glacier-fed water decline, flash floods. (ND-GAIN; WB CCDR)

Healthcare - Collapsed and aid-dependent, with among the world's worst maternal/child outcomes. (CARE/UNICEF/WHO)

Infrastructure - Poor, war-damaged, and aid-dependent. (World Bank/OCHA)

Crime Safety - Taliban-imposed order cut some crime, but terrorism and instability persist. (HRW; HSToday)

Disaster Insurance - A negligible market. (general)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.85 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -7.05 │ 60% │

│ long │ -7.25 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -7.30 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -6.62 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -6.20 │ 60% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -6.97 │ -7.14 │ -7.30 │

│ Assets │ -6.56 │ -6.62 │ -6.69 │

│ Currency │ -6.20 │ -6.22 │ -6.24 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘