- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics rebuilt from independent sources (IMF Art IV 2026, World Bank, Freedom House, RSF, HRW, OHCHR, UNHCR, TI); Angolan state media EXCLUDED there, with economics admitted via IMF.

- A near-total oil rentier under a party that has ruled since 1975, with high inflation, heavy China-debt service, and extreme inequality.

- Standout drags: a resource-curse oil model, weak rule of law, high inflation, abusive migrant expulsions, and weak healthcare; a US-courted Lobito Corridor is a mild geopolitical offset.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A near-total oil rentier with heavy China-debt service, a volatile currency, and high inflation. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - A ~4% deficit with debt ~52% rising toward the legal ceiling, heavy China oil-backed debt service, and an IMF-program history. (IMF 2026 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - An oil-managed kwanza with a ~60% 2023 devaluation and limited central-bank autonomy. (IMF; FocusEconomics)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - No global reserve role. (definitional)

Inflation - High (~20%+) and sticky, FX-driven. (IMF; FocusEconomics)

Banking Stability - Dollarized, state-exposed, and fragile, IMF-monitored. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - ~95% of exports from oil with structurally declining output and minimal diversification - a classic resource curse. (IMF 2026 Art IV)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.57 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.57 │ 60% │

│ long │ -4.57 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

MPLA dominance with no judicial independence and a state-dominated press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Party dominance with no judicial independence, a grand-corruption legacy, and only a partial/selective anti-graft drive. (Freedom House; TI)

Statistical Integrity - Weak-ish but actively IMF-engaged and validated. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Patronage-driven, with thin capacity. (World Bank)

Press Freedom - A poor RSF standing, with a 2024 security law allowing media/internet interference and ongoing prosecutions. (RSF; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.56 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -4.56 │ 59% │

│ long │ -4.56 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A half-century of one-party rule, restricted liberties, abusive migrant expulsions, and extreme inequality. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A party in power since 1975, a contested 2022 election, and rising discontent ahead of a 2027 vote - competitive-authoritarian managed stability. (Freedom House)

Civil Liberties - A 2025 anti-'vandalism' law (long terms for protests) and crackdowns. (Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - Not a relocation destination, with recurrent abusive mass expulsions of Congolese migrants. (HRW; OHCHR; UNHCR)

Social Cohesion - Extreme inequality and high poverty despite oil, with a Cabinda separatist undercurrent. (World Bank)

Demographics - Very young and fast-growing - a growth dividend against an acute jobs strain. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.95 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.95 │ 60% │

│ long │ -4.95 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A pragmatic China/US-hedging posture, with low-level Cabinda separatism. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 75% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Non-aligned, China-debt-tied yet US-courted via the Lobito Corridor - pragmatic hedging. (ECFR; AidData)

Conflict Involvement - No active war, with low-level Cabinda separatism and DRC-border exposure. (HRW)

Sanctions Capital Controls - FX controls present; not internationally sanctioned. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.80 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -1.80 │ 60% │

│ long │ -1.80 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Weak healthcare and infrastructure, against drought/flood and high urban crime. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 66% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - High vulnerability/low readiness; recurrent severe southern drought plus coastal flood/erosion. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - Low spend, a high disease burden, and a weak system. (World Bank/WHO)

Infrastructure - Oil-funded pockets (the Lobito rail) but broadly poor, with only ~47% reliable power access. (World Bank; Afrobarometer)

Crime Safety - High urban crime. (independent reporting)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible penetration. (sector data)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.90 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -6.0 │ 60% │

│ long │ -6.10 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -4.77 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -4.33 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -4.17 │ 60% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -4.74 │ -4.76 │ -4.77 │

│ Assets │ -4.32 │ -4.33 │ -4.34 │

│ Currency │ -4.17 │ -4.17 │ -4.17 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘