- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV 2025, World Bank, EC, RSF, TI, V-Dem, Freedom House) + regional independent press (Balkan Insight, OSW) + INSTAT.

- A NATO member and EU-accession-negotiating Balkan state riding a tourism boom, with entrenched corruption and steep depopulation the structural drags.

- Standout features: tourism-led growth, falling debt, low inflation, and a NATO/EU anchor, against corruption/organized-crime infiltration, captured-leaning media, seismic risk, and depopulation. Source-lean: MODERATE-HIGH EU-accession framing.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

Tourism-led growth, falling debt, and low inflation, with tourism concentration the caveat. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt ~54% GDP and falling, with disciplined deficits and tourism-boosted growth. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - A credible-ish central bank that pulled inflation below target, in a small managed-float economy. (IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The lek is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Below target and eased - a clear strength. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Banking Stability - Sound, well-capitalised, and foreign-owned. (IMF/World Bank)

Trade Actions Capacity - A tourism boom plus agriculture, hydropower, and remittances - no resource curse, but tourism over-concentration and overheating risk. (IMF; bne IntelliNews)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.33 │ 72% │

│ mid │ +3.33 │ 72% │

│ long │ +3.33 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

EU-driven justice reform from a corruption- and crime-infiltrated base. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - EU accession clusters opened and justice-vetting complete (with elite convictions), against entrenched corruption and organized-crime infiltration. (EC 2025; TI)

Statistical Integrity - INSTAT is usable and EU-engaged. (INSTAT; Eurostat)

Civil Service Capacity - Improving via EU reforms but clientelist. (EC; OSCE)

Press Freedom - Media concentrated in a few politically-connected firms, with opaque state-ad funding and intimidation. (RSF 2025; Balkan Insight)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.15 │ 68% │

│ mid │ -0.15 │ 68% │

│ long │ -0.15 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Stable one-party-dominant governance with EU momentum, against depopulation and a drug-economy undercurrent. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 85% │ -3.0 │ -5.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A governing party on a fourth term with EU-2030 momentum, offset by one-party dominance and low turnout. (OSW; Al Jazeera)

Civil Liberties - Rated 'partly free,' with formal freedoms pressured. (Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - An EU-candidate with lawful routes, hosting an Italy-migration-deal processing centre. (HRW)

Social Cohesion - Relatively cohesive, eroded by a drug/organized-crime economy and mass emigration. (TI; OSW)

Demographics - A steep decline (down ~1.2%/yr), with severe youth and medic brain-drain. (INSTAT; UNFPA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.78 │ 69% │

│ mid │ +1.56 │ 69% │

│ long │ +1.34 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A strongly pro-Western NATO/EU-candidate anchor in a stable-ish Balkans. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 75% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A NATO member and EU candidate, strongly pro-US/Western. (EC; NATO)

Conflict Involvement - No active conflict in a stable-ish Balkans. (EC)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Open and EU-aligning, not sanctioned. (IMF; EC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.17 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +5.17 │ 74% │

│ long │ +5.17 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Improving infrastructure, against seismic risk and an organized-crime undercurrent. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Mediterranean heat/drought/wildfire, mid-tier vulnerability and low readiness; an EEA Southern-Europe water-stress hotspot worsening by 2050. (ND-GAIN; EEA)

Healthcare - Weak-to-moderate, strained by doctor and nurse emigration. (UNFPA; World Bank)

Infrastructure - Improving (EU/World-Bank-financed) from a historically poor base. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - Tourist-safe but with a persistent organized-crime/drug undercurrent. (TI; RSF)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration against major seismic exposure. (World Bank DRFI)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.29 │ 67% │

│ mid │ -2.50 │ 67% │

│ long │ -2.71 │ 67% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.75 │ 69% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +2.05 │ 70% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +2.87 │ 71% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +0.95 │ +0.85 │ +0.75 │

│ Assets │ +2.09 │ +2.05 │ +2.01 │

│ Currency │ +2.87 │ +2.86 │ +2.85 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘