- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF Art IV, OECD, MONEYVAL, Freedom House, RSF, EU) + international/European press.

- A stable co-principality (the French President and the Bishop of Urgell as co-princes) with an elected parliament; a tourism/retail/banking economy diversifying after banking-secrecy reform, using the euro.

- Standout features: strong institutions, a prudent fiscal rule, top-tier safety, and an EU-Association-Agreement upside (concluded at Council level Dec 2025, pending ratification + a referendum), against rapid aging and a thin tax base.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A prudent, low-debt, diversifying economy with an EU-association upside; euro-using, no monetary autonomy. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - A fiscal rule caps the deficit at 1% of GDP and debt at 40%, with resilient ~2.1% growth and a large current-account surplus. (IMF Art IV 2025/2026)

Monetary Independence - Uses the euro under an EU monetary agreement - no own monetary policy, imports the ECB stance. (EU monetary agreement)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Uses the euro (a reserve currency) but issues none of it. (IMF; EU monetary agreement)

Inflation - Subsiding (~2.6% end-2024), tracking the eurozone despite a tight labour market. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Banking Stability - Banks profitable on high margins/fees; the post-secrecy-reform sector is sound but small and concentrated. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Trade Actions Capacity - A diversifying tourism/retail/banking economy; the EU Association Agreement would deepen single-market access - small but capable, gaining optionality if ratified. (EC; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.31 │ 81% │

│ mid │ +1.31 │ 81% │

│ long │ +1.31 │ 81% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong rule of law and a free press (with the usual microstate data-thinness). (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Strong, stable rule of law - 'Free' (FH 93/100); no dedicated WJP coverage caps confidence. (Freedom House 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Credible official statistics and IMF-engaged, with thin coverage vs Eurostat-grade systems. (IMF Art IV)

Civil Service Capacity - A competent small administration, with the EU-accession workstream straining a thin civil service. (EC; IMF)

Press Freedom - RSF #5 globally (2025) - among the world's freest and independent, though a tiny media market. (RSF 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - No standing armed forces. The factor reduces here to the politicization of the police or gendarmerie. It is scored positive by default. Confidence is held low, as the usual evidence base does not apply.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.03 │ 67% │

│ mid │ +5.03 │ 67% │

│ long │ +5.03 │ 67% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable democracy with protected liberties, against a long-run aging drag. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +1.0 │ -1.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A stable co-principality with an elected parliament and regular free/fair elections. (Freedom House 2025)

Civil Liberties - Generally respected (FH civil liberties 55/60). (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - >50% of residents are foreign; integration is peaceful, but strict naturalization leaves most non-citizens without voting rights. (Freedom House 2025)

Social Cohesion - A cohesive, low-conflict society despite ~100 nationalities, with housing/cost pressure as population nears 90k. (Andorra statistics; FH)

Demographics - Immigration-fed growth now, but fertility ~0.8 and rapid aging make the long term a fiscal/growth drag. (Andorra statistics; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.89 │ 77% │

│ mid │ +4.69 │ 77% │

│ long │ +4.48 │ 77% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A demilitarized, conflict-free state under Franco-Spanish protection, EU-associating. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 65% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Not in NATO/EU, but with deep Franco-Spanish protection and a pending EU Association Agreement. (EC; UN)

Conflict Involvement - No conflict exposure - landlocked and demilitarized. (observed)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open capital account aligned with EU/international norms post-secrecy-reform. (IMF; EC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.62 │ 73% │

│ mid │ +5.62 │ 73% │

│ long │ +5.62 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Among the world's safest, with strong healthcare, against ski-tourism climate sensitivity. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ -0.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 80% │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - A high-Pyrenees state - alpine snowpack/tourism loss but altitude buffers heat; small, wealthy, adaptive. (IPCC AR6 mountains; EEA)

Healthcare - Very high life expectancy (~84+) and a strong universal system, with complex cases referred to Spain/France. (WHO)

Infrastructure - Good for its size, but landlocked, road-dependent, and with no airport/rail of its own. (general)

Crime Safety - Among the safest countries in the world. (national crime stats)

Disaster Insurance - Developed insurance access via Spain/France, with low catastrophe exposure. (general)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.28 │ 65% │

│ mid │ +5.20 │ 65% │

│ long │ +5.11 │ 65% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +4.27 │ 72% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +3.47 │ 74% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +2.75 │ 77% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +4.42 │ +4.34 │ +4.27 │

│ Assets │ +3.50 │ +3.47 │ +3.44 │

│ Currency │ +2.75 │ +2.74 │ +2.73 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘