- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-25): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-14 -> 08-25 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central; WebSearch budget exhausted mid-pass, central verification via self-hosted SearXNG + targeted fetches), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war entered an economic-strangulation phase even as exit diplomacy advanced. The US launched the global secondary-sanctions campaign 'Operation Economic Outcast' (Aug 24, 60+ designations, all-sector scope); Iran's crude exports effectively halted (Kharg Island berths empty since July 31, satellite-verified; China-bound imports ~823k -> ~534k bpd); the rial crossed 2 million per dollar; Iran fired its first ballistic missiles toward the UAE (Aug 18) and the UAE, Iran's second-largest trade partner, cut ALL trade indefinitely (Aug 19). Yet no US strike on Iranian soil was confirmed in-window and Iran-Oman Hormuz-corridor talks reached joint-statement drafting in Tehran (Aug 25). A global long-bond rout (Aug 18) set multi-decade records (UK 50Y 5.392%; JGB 10Y highest since 1996); the US Treasury doubled long-end buybacks (Aug 19), the Fed-independence fight reopened (Cook removal deadline Aug 26), and DXY hit a 3-month low with gold at a 3-month high. US-Canada trade talks collapsed (Aug 21), first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect (Aug 22), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation (eff. Sept 8). Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Russia's Black Sea grain export capacity offline and Russian inflation crossed 10%. DRC Ebola deaths reached 2,642 (PHEIC reaffirmed) while Geneva produced an M23 peace-talks roadmap. Pakistan's KP floods killed 368 in five days and Islamabad defied a Supreme Court order on Imran Khan. Venezuela freed 131 political prisoners. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the Sept-2025 Libya 'Sorman/Zawiya clashes' recirculation, Ghana's pre-window IMF completion run as fresh, Cuba's pre-window Aug 2-3 blackout, and a third clean Thailand-Cambodia verification (ceasefire holds, ASEAN observers verifying). CORRECTION: Serbia's June 27-30 Vucic resignation-pledge arc, missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since 05-28, is booked late as a note. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-07): news pull since the 2026-06-18 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire proved repeatedly reversible (remote MoU June 17 + 60-day Burgenstock roadmap June 21, then a Kiku-tanker strike -> US strikes on 5 Iranian sites -> Iranian retaliation on US bases in Kuwait/Bahrain June 27-28 -> fresh Saudi/Qatari tanker strikes July 7 -> Trump 'finish the job'), even as verified relief landed (OFAC General License X, a 60-day Iranian-oil-export waiver ~$8-9B) and Hormuz volumes recovered to ~90% of pre-war baseline. Iran's $24B/$12B frozen-asset claim stays Mehr/parliamentary-sourced and US-denied -> excluded. Secondary: Russia's refinery/fuel crisis + deficit blowout (160% of the annual target, exile-press sourced); Ukraine's EU-accession progress + NATO 140bn-euro pledge vs the deadliest Kyiv strikes of the year; Venezuela's twin quake + constitutional-legality shock; certified-but-contested elections in Peru (Fujimori) and Colombia (de la Espriella); Bolivia's blockade crisis easing under a state of emergency; US inflation topping 4% and SCOTUS striking the birthright-citizenship order while domestic-terrorism sentences and ICE-detention deaths mount; China's rare-earth coercion + HK Article 23 expansion; India's near-final US trade deal vs a press-freedom slide; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk watch. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-03): news pull since the 2026-05-28 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; Iran's Hormuz-closure claims sourced to Tasnim are treated as regime intent, not verified action). A few late-May items not captured in the prior pass are flagged in-note. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0. STATE-MEDIA EXCLUSION applied: UAE state-aligned outlets (WAM, The National, Khaleej Times, Gulf News) were excluded on governance/rights/politics and rebuilt from independent sources (Freedom House, RSF, HRW, V-Dem, World Justice Project, The Sentry, UN panels); economic data used only where IMF-validated.

- The core tension is world-class capacity, safety, infrastructure, and easy tax-free residency against an authoritarian floor: no political freedom, very low press freedom, and no path to belonging for the ~88% expatriate population.

- Resource/rentier dynamic: oil wealth is partly offset by sovereign funds and diversification, but the long-term economic score is discounted for it.

- Recalibrated 2026-05-29 for the 2026 Iran war (Operation Epic Fury, US+Israel vs Iran from 28 Feb) and the Strait of Hormuz closure: blockade of ~1/5 of world oil+LNG, attacks/threats on Gulf desalination (water security), and the global energy shock. The two-week 8 Apr ceasefire collapsed by late May - the US renewed strikes on Iran ~25-26 May (Trump convened Camp David) and the war resumed, with Hormuz still blockaded. (Reuters; BBC; NYT; CNN; ISW; Al Jazeera; CSIS; Wikipedia)

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

Deep sovereign-wealth buffers, dollar-pegged stability, and a diversified hub economy; an oil-dependent rentier tail on the long horizon. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +4.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 78% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 78% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -3.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Diversified, fund-backed finances absorb the shock better than peers, but Hormuz disruption and war risk dent the near term. (IMF)

Monetary Independence - The dirham is hard-pegged to the US dollar, so there is essentially no independent monetary policy (US rates are imported); the peg is deliberate and delivers convertibility and stability. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Not an issuer, but dirham stability rides the USD peg - a mild positive for holders. (IMF)

Inflation - Worsened +2 -> +1: the Fuel Price Committee raised September petrol and diesel rates effective Sept 1, with diesel up as much as 13% (Emirates247, Time Out Dubai and Abu Dhabi consistent). A double-digit diesel step passes straight into freight and construction costs in an economy already absorbing the Iran trade cutoff.

Banking Stability - Well-capitalised (CAR ~17%), low NPLs, ample liquidity; the IMF judges stability risks contained. (IMF GFSR 2026; CBUAE)

Trade Actions Capacity - Worsened near -6 -> -7: the indefinite suspension of ALL trade, commercial exchange and financial transactions with Iran (Aug 19, MFA; WaPo/Bloomberg corroborate) severs a $28B+ two-way relationship in which the UAE was Iran's second-largest partner and re-export hub, on top of a Hormuz that remains effectively closed to routine traffic (~1% of pre-crisis transits; war-risk cover ~40x with P&I withdrawals). Diversification cushions the level; the direction is a war-driven contraction of the entrepot model. Long held +1.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.08 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +0.82 │ 60% │

│ long │ +1.72 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

High state capacity and functional commercial law, against no judicial independence on political matters and among the world's lowest press freedom. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 72% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 50% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A split: commercial/contract law is functional and modernizing (the DIFC/ADGM English-law courts), but there is no judicial independence on political matters and grave due-process violations in political cases. (WJP 2025; Freedom House 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Economic statistics are IMF-validated and usable; political and rights data are opaque, with no independent civil society. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Civil Service Capacity - Very high state capacity and execution (infrastructure delivery, COP28, an AI/G42 build-out). (IMF; observed)

Press Freedom - No independent media; RSF ranks the UAE very low (~164); censorship and cybercrime laws, surveillance, and journalist persecution. (RSF 2025; HRW)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an instrument of a ruling family. Command appointments follow the succession line. No independent oversight body exists.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.63 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -0.63 │ 59% │

│ long │ -0.63 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Suppressed/managed regime stability and easy entry, against sharply restricted civil liberties and no path to belonging for the expatriate majority. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 60% │ +4.0 │ +2.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 82% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 78% │ +5.0 │ +1.50 │ -2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +4.0 │ +2.50 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Suppressed/managed stability: high near-term regime control via autocracy rather than pluralist resilience; the long-term is discounted for hereditary-rule brittleness and no political release valve. (Freedom House 2025; V-Dem)

Civil Liberties - Rated 'Not Free': banned parties and unions, criminalized dissent, surveillance, and kafala-legacy labour abuses (wage theft, passport confiscation). (Freedom House 2025; HRW)

Treatment Non Citizens - Easy lawful ENTRY - a 10-year Golden Visa, remote-work visas, easy sponsorship, no income tax - but a hard ceiling: expatriates are ~88% of the population with no path to citizenship or political rights, and ordinary residency is tied to employment, creating structural precarity. (Freedom House; HRW; UAE visa rules)

Social Cohesion - Orderly, very low crime, and cosmopolitan, but an expatriate-majority society with no rights and a stratified labour underclass caps it. (Gallup; HRW)

Demographics - A young, expat-driven, favourable working-age structure near-term, discounted long-term for structural dependence on continuously imported labour (no organic citizen base). (UN; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.70 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +0.23 │ 60% │

│ long │ -1.25 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A reliable-but-non-aligned regional power with active conflict exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 66% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 84% │ -9.0 │ -6.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Improved 2 -> 3: at BRICS Delhi Sept 13 Pezeshkian met UAE Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled in what both sides called the first constructive exchange since the war began, agreeing to 'turn the page' (HNGN, Al-Monitor). UAE trade and financial exchanges with Iran remain suspended from August, so this is diplomatic rather than economic normalization. Confidence 0.6 -> 0.66.

Conflict Involvement - Worsened near -8 -> -9: Iranian forces struck US-linked al-Minhad Air Base ON UAE SOIL, hitting radar and troop positions, as part of the same wave that hit Kuwait (ISW Iran Update, Sept 3). The strike was carried out by the Artesh, the regular armed forces, rather than the IRGC, which widens the set of Iranian institutions willing to hit Gulf states directly. This moves the UAE from blockade-exposed and overflown to directly struck. Long held -3. The UAE state-linked daily advisories are used only to confirm the disruption occurred, not as a level.

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open capital account (a positive for holders), but ongoing sanctions-evasion and illicit-finance scrutiny despite removal from the FATF grey list in 2024. (FATF; The Sentry)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.20 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -1.15 │ 60% │

│ long │ -0.10 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

World-class infrastructure, very low crime, and excellent hub healthcare, against extreme heat and water/desalination dependence. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -4.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +5.50 │ +7.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 78% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Extreme wet-bulb heat by mid-century, desal-dependent water, coastal/sea-level, with the highest-readiness Gulf offset near-term. (IPCC AR6; ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Excellent modern private/hub healthcare, of medical-tourism grade. (IMF; OSAC)

Infrastructure - Among the best infrastructure on the board, but heavy desalination dependence under direct Iranian water-infrastructure threats is an acute near-term vulnerability. (CSIS; Circle of Blue)

Crime Safety - A genuine strength: very low crime; surveys show ~95% feel safe at night. (Gallup)

Disaster Insurance - Flood exposure newly realized after the 2024 floods; the insurance market is developing, with high state response capacity. (2024 floods coverage)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.95 │ 59% │

│ mid │ +2.95 │ 59% │

│ long │ +2.95 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.10 │ 59% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.32 │ 60% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -0.42 │ 60% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +0.61 │ +0.36 │ +0.10 │

│ Assets │ -0.06 │ +0.32 │ +0.69 │

│ Currency │ -0.42 │ +0.21 │ +0.83 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘