- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-07): news pull since the 2026-06-18 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire proved repeatedly reversible (remote MoU June 17 + 60-day Burgenstock roadmap June 21, then a Kiku-tanker strike -> US strikes on 5 Iranian sites -> Iranian retaliation on US bases in Kuwait/Bahrain June 27-28 -> fresh Saudi/Qatari tanker strikes July 7 -> Trump 'finish the job'), even as verified relief landed (OFAC General License X, a 60-day Iranian-oil-export waiver ~$8-9B) and Hormuz volumes recovered to ~90% of pre-war baseline. Iran's $24B/$12B frozen-asset claim stays Mehr/parliamentary-sourced and US-denied -> excluded. Secondary: Russia's refinery/fuel crisis + deficit blowout (160% of the annual target, exile-press sourced); Ukraine's EU-accession progress + NATO 140bn-euro pledge vs the deadliest Kyiv strikes of the year; Venezuela's twin quake + constitutional-legality shock; certified-but-contested elections in Peru (Fujimori) and Colombia (de la Espriella); Bolivia's blockade crisis easing under a state of emergency; US inflation topping 4% and SCOTUS striking the birthright-citizenship order while domestic-terrorism sentences and ICE-detention deaths mount; China's rare-earth coercion + HK Article 23 expansion; India's near-final US trade deal vs a press-freedom slide; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk watch. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-03): news pull since the 2026-05-28 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; Iran's Hormuz-closure claims sourced to Tasnim are treated as regime intent, not verified action). A few late-May items not captured in the prior pass are flagged in-note. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV/EFF, World Bank, OECD, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem) + Argentine official (INDEC, BCRA) + Argentine/Spanish-language press.

- POSITIVE-SKEW, high-variance reform-turnaround case: scored the Milei trajectory (fiscal surplus, disinflation, capital-control lifting) against a deep crisis baseline - genuine asymmetric upside with a real crisis tail.

- INDEC credibility was restored after the 2007-2015 manipulation era. Source-lean: economic sources skew pro-Milei/market; press-freedom/rights sources skew critical - roughly bias-cancelling; Spanish-language press under-read.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A dramatic reform turnaround (fiscal surplus, collapsing inflation, lifted capital controls) on a fragile track record and resource upside. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +4.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 78% │ +3.0 │ +2.50 │ +2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 78% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +4.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - De-risking continued: the JP Morgan country-risk spread fell to ~403bp on July 10 (an 8-year low, -29% in 2026) after Economy Minister Caputo's 2026-27 financing program, and Argentina cleanly paid a $4.2B bondholder maturity from Treasury deposits, with a new dollar bond (Bonar 2029) slated July 15 (Perfil, Infobae, Ambito - independent). Near 5 -> 6; long held 2; confidence held; positive skew retained.

Monetary Independence - Improved near +2 -> +3: gross reserves reached ~$49.6B on Aug 11, the highest in nearly seven years, after ~$13.5B of 2026 BCRA purchases toward an explicit accumulation target (BCRA-published, market-crosscheckable; an $850M+ IMF payment dented it to $48.8B Aug 7), with Moody's upgrading the sovereign (~late July, exact date imprecise - flagged) and Georgieva publicly endorsing the program (subject-praising-own-program, mild flag). Inflation reads are muddled ACROSS VINTAGES (a ~33% y/y print vs forward forecasts of 16-30% from IMF/JPM/BBVA/OECD) - booked as contested, not as a clean datum. Long held +2.

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Net international reserves hit a 7-year high (~+$4.8bn since end-2025) and the IMF released a ~$1bn tranche on its 2nd review; external-liquidity / debt-service capacity strengthened (IMF, Bloomberg, PIIE). 0 -> 1. (IMF review ~May 21, just before the prior pass and not previously captured.)

Inflation - Worsened near +3 -> +2: the peso closed August above the AR$1,500 threshold for a full week for the first time, with the government appearing to loosen its intervention strategy amid low FX liquidity and seasonal export decline (Buenos Aires Herald, Aug 28, dated and independent). A single independent chain supports a one-step move on a market-observable price, not more. Long held +2.

Banking Stability - Small (private credit ~10% GDP), dollarization-prone but de-dollarizing, well-capitalised; thin and shock-sensitive. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Vaca Muerta shale (record output), agri-commodities, and world #3 lithium exports - real export upside as trade opens; commodity concentration the caveat. (S&P Global; US ITA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.01 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +2.63 │ 75% │

│ long │ +2.25 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Restored statistical credibility and a leaner state, against a historically weak judiciary and press-freedom backsliding. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ +0.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -1.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Historically weak/politicized; heavy decree (DNU) use raises separation-of-powers concerns; improving-but-questionable. (WJP 2025; V-Dem)

Statistical Integrity - INDEC credibility RESTORED post-2015; data now IMF-cited and trusted. (INDEC; IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Slashed under austerity (mass dismissals, ministries cut); near-term capacity loss, possible long-term leaner efficiency. (OECD)

Press Freedom - HELD at -3. A widely-syndicated claim that Milei's government is escalating a 'war on journalists' via a new punitive law could NOT be date-pinned to the window and the originating article body was unretrievable. The peso figure in the same headline is separately confirmed and is booked; the press-law claim is not. Carried forward for verification.

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.55 │ 70% │

│ mid │ +0.92 │ 70% │

│ long │ +1.30 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Volatile reform politics and a poverty spike now easing, with an open, welcoming residency regime. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -1.0 │ 0.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - An Oct-2025 midterm landslide secured a veto/decree-blocking third but no majority - dependent on fragile blocs; recurring austerity strikes. (Americas Quarterly)

Civil Liberties - A functioning democracy with free elections and intact rights; protest-policing and press hostility are drags. (V-Dem; Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - Open, lawful, durable (rentista/ancestry routes, Spanish-speaking, citizenship after just 2y, dual allowed); a 2025 decree cut temp-resident access to public services. (DNM)

Social Cohesion - Poverty spiked then fell sharply (to ~28% by H2 2025); high polarization and economic stress persist but the trajectory is easing. (INDEC; UCA)

Demographics - A relatively favorable age structure and moderate fertility; brain-drain emigration the watch-item. (UN)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.65 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +1.80 │ 75% │

│ long │ +1.95 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A pro-US tilt and no external conflict, with capital controls largely lifted. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 90% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A strong pro-US/Israel tilt (a US swap line, a shift away from BRICS/China), pragmatic; durability tied to Milei's tenure. (CFR)

Conflict Involvement - No external conflict; only a dormant Falklands/Malvinas claim. (background)

Sanctions Capital Controls - The 'cepo' capital controls were largely LIFTED in 2025 (free FX, a floating band); not sanctioned, with reversal risk if reserves stress. (MercoPress; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.45 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +4.45 │ 75% │

│ long │ +4.45 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Decent healthcare and moderate crime, against decaying infrastructure and drought exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +0.50 │ 0.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Southern-cone temperate, moderate readiness - Pampas drought plus Andean melt offset the latitude upside. (WB CCDR)

Healthcare - Mixed public/private, decent access and outcomes; austerity strains public provision. (PAHO)

Infrastructure - Decaying and chronically underinvested; Vaca Muerta pipelines a bright spot. (OECD; S&P)

Crime Safety - Moderate (national homicide ~4.3/100k); Rosario narco-violence elevated but down to a 17-yr low, durability questioned. (InSight Crime)

Disaster Insurance - Low insurance penetration; low seismic/hurricane exposure limits the tail. (hazard context)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.27 │ 72% │

│ mid │ +0.17 │ 72% │

│ long │ +0.07 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +1.63 │ 73% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +2.18 │ 73% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +2.69 │ 74% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +1.43 │ +1.53 │ +1.63 │

│ Assets │ +2.24 │ +2.18 │ +2.12 │

│ Currency │ +2.69 │ +2.54 │ +2.39 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘