- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV, World Bank, EBRD, V-Dem, RSF, TI, Freedom House) + Armenian independent press (CivilNet, EVN Report, Hetq) + regional (Eurasianet, OC Media).

- A reforming post-2018 democracy under acute geopolitical threat after the 2023 loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, pivoting from Russia toward the West while still Russia-energy-dependent.

- Standout drags: an unresolved/coerced peace and blockade, social-cohesion trauma, and a risky Russia-to-West realignment; a free-ish press, prudent macro, and absorbed refugees/Russians offset. Source-lean: MODERATE Anglophone.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

Prudent macro and a credible central bank, with the Russian-inflow boom normalizing into structural blockade exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Moderate debt (~47% GDP) and a 2025 deficit below budget, with a new IMF arrangement. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - A credible inflation-targeting central bank, managed and with no peg. (CBA; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The dram is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - ~3-4% and near the target band. (CBA; World Bank)

Banking Stability - Sound and well-capitalised, boosted by 2022-23 Russian inflows. (IMF; EBRD)

Trade Actions Capacity - IT/tech and copper, but landlocked and blockaded by two neighbours and Russia-trade-dependent, with the re-export boom now declining. (IMF; Eurasianet)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.30 │ 77% │

│ mid │ +2.30 │ 77% │

│ long │ +2.30 │ 77% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A reforming but weak rule of law, with a free-ish but eroding press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -1.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A post-2018 democracy with an anti-corruption drive, but weak institutions and politicised 2025-26 prosecutions. (V-Dem; Freedom House 2026; CivilNet)

Statistical Integrity - Usable, IMF-relied-upon, and improving. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Reforming and mixed, with brain-drain risk. (World Bank; EBRD)

Press Freedom - A regional bright spot (RSF ~50th) but deteriorating amid polarisation. (RSF 2026; Hetq)

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.60 │ 62% │

│ mid │ +0.90 │ 62% │

│ long │ +1.20 │ 62% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A fragile reforming democracy carrying the Karabakh-loss trauma and refugee strain. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -1.50 │ 0.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 65% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A competitive 2026 election with an unpopular incumbent, 2025 coup-plot arrests, polarised and fragile - net mild-positive on democratic continuity. (Eurasianet; OBC Transeuropa)

Civil Liberties - Free-ish, rated 'partly free'. (Freedom House 2026)

Treatment Non Citizens - Absorbed ~100k Karabakh Armenians and 2022 Russians; diaspora-friendly, lawful routes. (Eurasianet; UNHCR)

Social Cohesion - Karabakh-loss trauma, polarisation, and refugee-integration strain. (OC Media; EVN Report)

Demographics - Small (~3M), ageing, with sustained emigration. (World Bank; UNFPA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.32 │ 68% │

│ mid │ +0.11 │ 68% │

│ long │ +0.54 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A risky Russia-to-West realignment under acute, unresolved conflict exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -2.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Froze CSTO membership and pursues EU accession and US ties - a risky realignment, still Russia-energy/trade-dependent. (Bloomberg; Carnegie)

Conflict Involvement - Defeated in 2023 with a coerced/unresolved peace process, blockaded, and a residual war risk. (European Parliament; ICG)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Open and not sanctioned, but with re-export/circumvention scrutiny. (US State; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.34 │ 68% │

│ mid │ -2.99 │ 68% │

│ long │ -2.64 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Major seismic risk and blockaded, energy-dependent geography, with low crime a strength. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Mid-low vulnerability, moderate readiness - warming, water stress, agricultural exposure in the landlocked South Caucasus. (ND-GAIN; IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - Mixed and improving but uneven, with seismic-vulnerable facilities. (WHO; World Bank)

Infrastructure - Improving but landlocked/blockaded and energy-dependent on Russia and Iran. (IEA; IWPR)

Crime Safety - Low crime - a relative strength. (GTI 2026)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration against high seismic exposure. (GFDRR)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.56 │ 62% │

│ mid │ -0.67 │ 62% │

│ long │ -0.78 │ 62% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.71 │ 66% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.73 │ 69% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +1.08 │ 72% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +0.25 │ +0.48 │ +0.71 │

│ Assets │ +0.58 │ +0.73 │ +0.88 │

│ Currency │ +1.08 │ +1.20 │ +1.33 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘