- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, ECCB, Freedom House, RSF) + international and regional press.

- A stable twin-island tourism democracy on the East Caribbean dollar (XCD, pegged 2.70/USD via the strongly-reserved ECCB union), reliant on a Citizenship-by-Investment 'golden passport' program now under EU/US scrutiny.

- Standout features: a recovered tourism economy and falling debt (~68%), against Paris-Club/domestic arrears, CIP-revenue fragility (an EU visa-suspension risk), Barbuda's lingering Irma vulnerability, and some governance/press-pressure concerns.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A peg-anchored, low-inflation tourism economy with falling debt but persistent arrears and CIP-revenue fragility. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 65% │ 0.0 │ +0.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt down to ~68% of GDP (2025) from 101% (2020) with improving primary surpluses, but significant arrears and high gross financing needs are an active IMF red flag. (IMF 2026 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - An ECCB currency-union member; the XCD is pegged at 2.70/USD - no national policy, but a strong, well-reserved union. (ECCB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The XCD is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and anchored by the ECCB peg; union-wide price stability. (ECCB; IMF)

Banking Stability - Backstopped by the ECCB (97% reserve backing, above the 60% statutory floor); credit-union supervision gaps and historical de-risking are watch-items. (ECCB; IMF 2026)

Trade Actions Capacity - A tiny, highly import-dependent twin-island tourism economy with minimal trade leverage and CIP-revenue concentration. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.21 │ 68% │

│ mid │ +0.31 │ 68% │

│ long │ +0.42 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A free democracy with governance/transparency and CIP-integrity concerns, and uncertain arrears data. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A free, functioning democracy (Freedom House 'Free', 83/100) but governance/transparency and CIP-integrity concerns temper it. (Freedom House; IMF)

Statistical Integrity - The IMF notes domestic arrears are 'uncertain in size', signaling material data-quality gaps. (IMF 2026 Art IV)

Civil Service Capacity - A small administration with arrears management and CIP oversight stretching capacity. (IMF)

Press Freedom - Pluralistic (OECS group ranked ~48/180 by RSF) but criminal-defamation laws and politician-filed libel suits create chilling pressure. (Freedom House; RSF)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.71 │ 53% │

│ mid │ +0.71 │ 53% │

│ long │ +0.71 │ 53% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Stable under PM Browne, with some concentration-of-power criticism and Barbuda-recovery tensions. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 40% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Stable under PM Gaston Browne with regular elections and peaceful transfers, with some concentration-of-power criticism. (Freedom House 2025)

Civil Liberties - Largely respected (civil liberties 51/60), with media-pressure and defamation-law caveats. (Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - Open to investors/migrants via CIP and regional labor flows, with limited independent reporting. (lower confidence)

Social Cohesion - Broadly cohesive, with Barbuda-Antigua tensions over land/recovery and CIP land issues a localized strain. (observed)

Demographics - A small (~94k) but stable population with a tourism-skilled workforce and modest growth. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.68 │ 58% │

│ mid │ +2.68 │ 58% │

│ long │ +2.68 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Western/CARICOM-aligned but balancing China, with CIP a channel of Western due-diligence friction. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -1.50 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Western/Commonwealth/CARICOM-aligned but actively balancing US and China ties, with CIP creating Western due-diligence friction. (The Diplomat; State Dept)

Conflict Involvement - No conflicts or active disputes in a peaceful neighborhood. (observed)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Not itself sanctioned, but CIP exposes it to EU visa-suspension risk and Western scrutiny over investor-citizenship. (EU; Astons)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.13 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +1.24 │ 60% │

│ long │ +1.36 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Extreme hurricane exposure (Barbuda ~90% destroyed by Irma), with micro-state service limits. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 50% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 50% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - A high-vulnerability SIDS - Beryl-class hurricanes plus sea-level rise threaten Barbuda's low coast. (ND-GAIN; IPCC AR6 SIDS)

Healthcare - Limited tertiary capacity typical of a micro-state, reliant on regional/overseas referral. (general)

Infrastructure - Reasonable tourism infrastructure (airport, ports), but Barbuda recovery is incomplete and disaster-rebuild burdens recur. (observed)

Crime Safety - A lower violent-crime profile than the mainland Caribbean - tourism-oriented safety with petty-crime concerns. (lower confidence)

Disaster Insurance - A CCRIF parametric member, but with a large protection gap relative to catastrophic-storm exposure. (CCRIF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.46 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -2.72 │ 58% │

│ long │ -2.98 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.73 │ 58% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.48 │ 61% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +0.54 │ 63% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +0.76 │ +0.75 │ +0.73 │

│ Assets │ +0.44 │ +0.48 │ +0.52 │

│ Currency │ +0.54 │ +0.62 │ +0.71 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘