- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Article IV, WJP, RSF, Transparency International) + Australian official (ABS, RBA, APRA, Treasury) + Australian independent press (ABC, SMH, The Conversation).

- Source-lean: HIGH Anglophone (Australia is Anglophone); China-leverage and AUKUS-delivery risks may be under-weighted given the thin non-Anglophone read.

- Climate (bushfire/flood/drought) and insurance affordability are the standout physical drags.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

Low public debt and a credible central bank, with revenue and trade leaning on commodity exports to a single dominant buyer. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 80% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 72% │ -2.0 │ -1.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ 0.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Low public debt by advanced-economy standards; a modest deficit after two surpluses; revenue leans heavily on iron-ore exports (~70% to China), the key swing risk. (IMF 2025 Art IV; Treasury MYEFO)

Monetary Independence - The RBA is credible and independent, actively defending its 2-3% target with a new Monetary Policy Board. (RBA)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The AUD is a freely floating own currency and a minor global reserve currency (~2% of reserves) - a modest benefit. (IMF COFER)

Inflation - Worsened 0 -> -1: RBA held at 4.35% on Sept 18 but Governor Bullock warned inflation is 'too high' and all four major banks now expect the next move is a hike (SBS, SMH, CommBank). July trimmed mean CPI stuck at 3.6% YoY (ABC/Reuters, Aug 26). Hormuz oil shock adds forward pressure. Confidence 0.7 -> 0.72.

Banking Stability - A concentrated, well-capitalised big-four; sound lending; tail risk from very high household debt and housing-affordability stress. (RBA FSR Mar 2026)

Trade Actions Capacity - A commodity exporter with stable, rules-based policy, but heavy China concentration in iron ore and a latent paradox-of-plenty (revenue tracks one buyer/one commodity) caps the long view. (Dept of Industry)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.55 │ 79% │

│ mid │ +1.52 │ 79% │

│ long │ +1.73 │ 79% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong rule of law and independent statistics; press freedom dragged by hyper-concentrated ownership. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 82% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 82% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 72% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Top-tier (WJP ~11/142), an independent judiciary, and an operating federal anti-corruption commission. (WJP 2025)

Statistical Integrity - The ABS is independent and highly regarded, with no documented interference. (ABS)

Civil Service Capacity - A competent, professional public service with effective delivery (Medicare, migration). (observed)

Press Freedom - Free but structurally narrow: no constitutional press guarantee and among the developed world's most concentrated media ownership. (RSF 2025; ACMA)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, backed by tested parliamentary oversight and a long unbroken record of apolitical command.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.63 │ 76% │

│ mid │ +4.63 │ 76% │

│ long │ +4.63 │ 76% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A durable democracy with a lawful but tightening migration system; cohesion strained by the immigration/housing debate and unresolved Indigenous reconciliation. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 72% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 78% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ -0.50 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Labor re-elected in a May 2025 landslide; durable institutions and peaceful transfers. (Australian Electoral Commission)

Civil Liberties - Strong protections; no bill of rights and some surveillance/anti-encryption laws are watch-items. (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - A lawful, durable skilled-points/employer system (~70% skilled), but a deliberate net-migration cut makes it markedly more selective; an offshore-detention legacy is a negative. (Dept of Home Affairs)

Social Cohesion - Generally high but at cyclical lows; the 2023 Voice referendum left Indigenous reconciliation unresolved, and migration/housing sharpened debate. (Scanlon)

Demographics - Below-replacement fertility and ageing; immigration-fed growth now deliberately throttled, weakening the long-term offset. (ABS)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.08 │ 77% │

│ mid │ +2.93 │ 77% │

│ long │ +2.79 │ 77% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Deep alliances with front-line Indo-Pacific exposure to China tension. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 76% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 65% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - HELD at +4, confidence 0.75 -> 0.76: the 55th Pacific Islands Forum ran Aug 30 to Sept 1 in Palau with several heads of state absent, China objected to Taiwan's presence and warned of 'consequences', and PM Albanese responded publicly (Reuters, AP, with The Economist characterising the forum as fizzling as Chinese influence grows). Australia's regional convening power is being contested but its alliance commitments are unchanged.

Conflict Involvement - No active wars, but front-line Indo-Pacific exposure to China tension. (ASPI; CSIS)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Follows Western sanctions, not a major imposer; an open capital account, no controls. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.47 │ 72% │

│ mid │ +2.47 │ 72% │

│ long │ +2.47 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Universal healthcare and low crime, against severe and worsening climate exposure and eroding insurance affordability. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 78% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Black Summer bushfires, Murray-Darling drought, and Great Barrier Reef mass-bleaching (5 events since 2016); wealthy/high-readiness but severe heat/fire exposure worsening. (IPCC AR6; ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Universal Medicare with strong outcomes and a 2025-26 bulk-billing expansion; GP-access pressures remain. (Services Australia; AMA)

Infrastructure - Strong in major cities; a housing-supply shortfall is the key strain. (budget; observed)

Crime Safety - Low violent crime and homicide; firearm violence very low post-1996. (AIC context)

Disaster Insurance - Premiums up ~51% in five years, ~15% of households in affordability stress, and flood-cover gaps; functional but eroding. (Actuaries Institute 2026; APRA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.49 │ 77% │

│ mid │ +1.28 │ 77% │

│ long │ +1.07 │ 77% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +2.99 │ 77% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +2.54 │ 77% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +2.36 │ 78% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +3.11 │ +3.03 │ +2.99 │

│ Assets │ +2.59 │ +2.54 │ +2.59 │

│ Currency │ +2.36 │ +2.33 │ +2.45 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘