- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF, EC/Council, ECB, OECD, Eurostat, WJP, RSF, IMF COFER) + Austrian official (Statistik Austria, OeNB) + German-language press (Der Standard, Die Presse, ORF, WIFO).

- Politics: the far-right FPO won a 2024 plurality but was kept from power by a record-long three-party coalition formed in 2025 - fragmented but orderly. Austria is a EUROZONE member and constitutionally neutral (non-NATO).

- Standout features: excellent institutions, healthcare, infrastructure, and safety, against a recent fiscal deterioration (an EU deficit procedure) and a far-right political rise. Source-lean: MODERATE-HIGH Anglophone on the election/neutrality framing.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

An advanced, German-integrated export economy and sound banks, against a recent fiscal deterioration and recession. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 90% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - An EU excessive-deficit procedure opened in 2025 (deficit ~4.5-4.7%, debt ~80%), having been the EU's last economy still in recession, with a correction path to under 3% by 2028. (EC; Council EDP)

Monetary Independence - Pooled at the ECB - credible and anti-inflation but not sovereign. (ECB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - A participant in the euro, the world's second reserve currency. (IMF COFER)

Inflation - Was stickily above the euro-area average, now easing toward target. (OeNB; Statistik Austria)

Banking Stability - Sound and well-capitalised, with a legacy Russia exposure being wound down under ECB pressure. (ECB; OeNB FSR)

Trade Actions Capacity - Advanced, diversified industry and exports deeply integrated with Germany, against an energy-cost and Russia-gas-legacy drag, no resource curse. (OECD; WIFO)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.98 │ 84% │

│ mid │ +1.98 │ 84% │

│ long │ +1.98 │ 84% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Independent courts, excellent statistics, and high administrative quality, with media-ownership concentration the caveat. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 90% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Independent courts with high WJP scores. (WJP)

Statistical Integrity - Statistik Austria is credible and ESS-compliant. (Eurostat)

Civil Service Capacity - High administrative quality. (OECD; EC)

Press Freedom - Free (RSF ~22nd) but flagged for concentrated ownership and prior governing-party advertising-corruption scandals. (RSF 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, backed by tested parliamentary oversight and a long unbroken record of apolitical command.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +7.75 │ 85% │

│ mid │ +7.75 │ 85% │

│ long │ +7.75 │ 85% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong liberties and a cohesive welfare society, against a far-right rise and an ageing population. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 85% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - The far-right FPO won a 2024 plurality but was excluded by a record-long three-party coalition formed in 2025 - fragmented but orderly, with institutions holding. (election data; ORF)

Civil Liberties - Strong protections. (V-Dem; Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - Lawful EU routes (a Red-White-Red card) but a restrictive, tightening asylum stance. (EC; EUAA)

Social Cohesion - A cohesive welfare society, with immigration/integration polarisation rising. (OECD; Der Standard)

Demographics - Ageing, low fertility, and migration-dependent growth. (Statistik Austria; Eurostat)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.06 │ 79% │

│ mid │ +3.06 │ 79% │

│ long │ +3.06 │ 79% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

EU-anchored and conflict-free, but constitutionally neutral with a limited hard-security commitment. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - An EU member but constitutionally neutral and non-NATO - a limited hard-security commitment, with defence rising from a low base. (Defense News)

Conflict Involvement - No direct conflict, with a residual Russia-energy-dependence legacy. (EC; OeNB)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An EU regime with an open capital account. (EC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.03 │ 83% │

│ mid │ +4.03 │ 83% │

│ long │ +4.03 │ 83% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Excellent healthcare, infrastructure, and safety, against Alpine flood and glacier-loss exposure. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ -0.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Temperate, high readiness, but Alpine glacier/snow loss, rockfall, and 2024-type flooding. (ND-GAIN; IPCC AR6 mountains)

Healthcare - Universal with excellent access. (OECD; WHO)

Infrastructure - Excellent transport and utilities. (OECD; WEF)

Crime Safety - Low crime - a clear strength. (Eurostat; Statistik Austria)

Disaster Insurance - A functioning Alpine-hazard market, with a coverage gap exposed by the 2024 floods (~45% insured). (Munich Re; VVO)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.97 │ 79% │

│ mid │ +5.88 │ 79% │

│ long │ +5.79 │ 79% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +5.04 │ 82% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +4.24 │ 83% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +3.51 │ 84% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +5.07 │ +5.05 │ +5.04 │

│ Assets │ +4.24 │ +4.24 │ +4.23 │

│ Currency │ +3.51 │ +3.51 │ +3.51 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘