- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics rebuilt from independent sources (IMF, World Bank, WHO, V-Dem, RSF, Freedom House, HRW, Amnesty, CPJ, TI); Azerbaijani state/state-aligned media EXCLUDED there, with economic figures admitted only via IMF/rating-agency validation and promotional framing discarded.

- A dynastic authoritarian petrostate with strong external buffers but an intensifying 2024-26 rights crackdown and a fragile post-Karabakh 'negative peace'.

- Standout drags: dynastic autocracy, near-worst press freedom, a resource-curse oil model, and the 2023 displacement of ethnic Armenians from Karabakh.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

Strong oil-funded buffers and low inflation, against a declining-output resource-curse model and a de-facto peg. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Low government debt (~21-23% GDP) and large combined reserves/sovereign-fund buffers, but pro-cyclical and oil-dependent. (IMF 2026 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - A de-facto USD peg since 2017, with the central bank subordinating policy to oil/FX management. (IMF; S&P)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The manat is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - ~5-6% and within the target band. (IMF 2026 Art IV)

Banking Stability - Low NPLs and recent investment-grade upgrades, against state influence and a 2015 devaluation/bank-crisis legacy. (IMF; Fitch/Moody's)

Trade Actions Capacity - A key non-Russian EU gas supplier but with declining oil output and a classic resource curse. (IMF; EU Council)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.35 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -0.35 │ 60% │

│ long │ -0.35 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A dynastic autocracy with no judicial independence and among the world's worst press repression. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 90% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 95% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 50% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A dynastic autocracy with no judicial independence, sham trials, and systemic corruption. (Freedom House; HRW 2026)

Statistical Integrity - Economic data is IMF-validated; political/governance data is opaque. (IMF; V-Dem)

Civil Service Capacity - Oil-funded delivery capacity but clientelist and patronage-driven. (TI; HRW)

Press Freedom - RSF ~167/180, with ~25 journalists jailed, major outlets shuttered, and a 2025 media-law tightening. (RSF; CPJ; Amnesty)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are constitutionally or practically an instrument of a ruling party or a personalist ruler. Civilian control exists in form. Professional insulation from politics does not exist at all. Loyalty purges are therefore an available tool.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.46 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -4.46 │ 59% │

│ long │ -4.46 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Entrenched suppressed stability and a severe rights crackdown, with the Karabakh displacement a recent fracture. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 95% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Entrenched with no real opposition and a post-Karabakh nationalist boost - suppressed/managed stability, brittle long-term. (Freedom House; HRW)

Civil Liberties - Hundreds detained, with a 2023-26 crackdown intensifying. (HRW 2026; Amnesty; Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - Limited legal routes, not a relocation destination, with an authoritarian ceiling. (Freedom House)

Social Cohesion - Managed, with the 2023 displacement of ~100k ethnic Armenians from Karabakh. (Freedom House; HRW)

Demographics - A relatively young, stable population structure. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.85 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -3.85 │ 60% │

│ long │ -3.85 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A transactional hedger reliable as a gas supplier, with a fragile post-Karabakh peace. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 65% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A transactional hedger - Turkey-aligned, Russia/West-balancing, an EU gas partner - reliable as a supplier, not as a values-ally. (CGEP; EU Council)

Conflict Involvement - Won the 2023 Karabakh takeover; a 2025 framework is a 'negative peace' rather than a treaty, with residual war risk. (ICTJ)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Not sanctioned (a US review act pending), with a managed capital account. (Congress.gov; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.65 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -1.65 │ 60% │

│ long │ -1.65 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Oil-funded Baku modernisation, against Caspian decline and seismic exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Caspian level decline, heat and drought, water stress, with an oil-revenue buffer and middling readiness. (WB CCDR; IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - Oil-funded Baku modernisation but uneven rural access. (WHO; World Bank)

Infrastructure - Modern in Baku and oil-funded, but uneven nationally. (World Bank; IMF)

Crime Safety - Low-to-moderate street crime, with a police-state caveat. (Numbeo - soft source)

Disaster Insurance - Baku seismic and flood exposure against low insurance penetration. (seismic-hazard literature)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.75 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -0.85 │ 59% │

│ long │ -0.95 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -2.99 │ 59% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -1.96 │ 60% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -1.53 │ 60% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -2.96 │ -2.97 │ -2.99 │

│ Assets │ -1.95 │ -1.96 │ -1.97 │

│ Currency │ -1.53 │ -1.53 │ -1.53 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘