- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, UN/UNHCR, Freedom House, RSF, TI, HRW, Amnesty, Crisis Group) + international press; state media EXCLUDED on governance.

- Among the world's poorest countries (GDP per capita ~$486; poverty ~74%), in an acute external crisis - chronic fuel shortages, a forex squeeze with a ~100% parallel-market premium, and reserves near 1.5 months of imports.

- Standout drags: a closed political space (CNDD-FDD took ~96% of seats in June 2025 amid Imbonerakure abuses), a hot rupture with Rwanda (border closed, deportations), and involvement in eastern DRC; thin offsets include an IMF anchor and a reported inflation deceleration.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

An acute forex/fuel crisis with deficit monetization, on an IMF anchor but import-compressed. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 85% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 50% │ -3.0 │ -3.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 40% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 50% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Public debt ~52% of GDP at high distress risk, with deficit monetization fueling inflation; a 38-month IMF ECF underway. (IMF Apr 2025)

Monetary Independence - Own franc but policy dominated by deficit monetization and FX rationing - a de-facto loss of control. (IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Not a reserve currency, with severe forex shortages and a wide parallel premium. (IMF; HRW 2025)

Inflation - Spiked to ~40-45% in 2024-early 2025; the IMF reports a sharp slowdown but its monetization/FX-gap drivers leave durability uncertain. (IMF; Ecofin 2026)

Banking Stability - A thin, state-influenced sector strained by FX scarcity and crowding-out from deficit financing. (IMF; Coface)

Trade Actions Capacity - Landlocked with chronic import compression from no forex; world-class nickel reserves undeveloped. (EU; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.31 │ 53% │

│ mid │ -3.37 │ 53% │

│ long │ -3.43 │ 53% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A politicized judiciary, grand corruption, and weak delivery against a partly-liberalized press law. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 45% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A politicized judiciary and grand corruption implicating the ruling party in land/mining/customs capture (CPI ~17/100). (TI 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Limited, lagged official data, with FX/inflation figures partly IMF-reconstructed. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Weak delivery (~12% grid electricity access) with pervasive administrative corruption. (World Bank; OECD 2025)

Press Freedom - Constrained, though a July 2024 press law partly decriminalized offences; self-censorship and exile persist. (RSF; HRW 2024-25)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.16 │ 53% │

│ mid │ -5.16 │ 53% │

│ long │ -5.16 │ 53% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Ruling-party hegemony with documented abuses, over a managed-but-instrumentalized ethnic cleavage. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 55% │ -4.0 │ -4.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 45% │ -4.0 │ -3.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 50% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 50% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Ruling-party hegemony looks stable short-term, but economic distress, the Rwanda standoff, and 2027 dynamics raise medium-term risk. (HRW; Crisis Group 2025)

Civil Liberties - 'Elections without opposition', with documented killings, disappearances, torture, and arbitrary detention. (HRW WR2025/2026; Amnesty)

Treatment Non Citizens - Hosting 70k+ Congolese refugees (a humanitarian credit) but moving to deport Rwandan nationals amid the rupture. (UNHCR; HRW 2025)

Social Cohesion - A managed-but-instrumentalized Hutu/Tutsi legacy, with Imbonerakure intimidation along partisan lines. (HRW; Amnesty)

Demographics - Very young and high-fertility (a long-run asset) but with acute land/jobs pressure in one of the densest rural populations. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.89 │ 52% │

│ mid │ -3.94 │ 52% │

│ long │ -3.99 │ 52% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Isolated by the Rwanda rift, involved in eastern DRC, under heavy de-facto FX controls. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 50% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -4.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 50% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - An EAC member isolated by the Rwanda rift and aligned loosely with DRC against Rwanda/M23 - an unpredictable partner. (Crisis Group; Reuters 2025)

Conflict Involvement - Border closed with Rwanda, troops involved in eastern DRC, and a RED-Tabara rebel threat - elevated interstate-escalation risk. (HRW; Africanews 2025)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Heavy de-facto FX/capital controls and import rationing, with no broad multilateral sanctions currently. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.99 │ 52% │

│ mid │ -3.80 │ 52% │

│ long │ -3.61 │ 52% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Flood/landslide exposure, a malaria-burdened health system, and among the world's lowest electrification. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 66% │ -6.0 │ -6.50 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 55% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 50% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 40% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - ND-GAIN bottom-20 - landslides, floods, erratic rains on dense subsistence hills, near-zero adaptive capacity. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - Very weak - ~5.3M malaria cases in 2025, with the RTS,S vaccine introduced as a modest positive. (WHO/Gavi 2025)

Infrastructure - ~12% electricity access (among the world's lowest), with chronic fuel shortages crippling transport. (OECD/World Bank 2025)

Crime Safety - Elevated armed robbery/carjacking and politically motivated violence. (OSAC; HRW 2025)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible penetration, with near-total reliance on aid for shocks. (inference, low data)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.06 │ 54% │

│ mid │ -6.17 │ 54% │

│ long │ -6.28 │ 54% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -4.65 │ 53% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -4.23 │ 53% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -3.81 │ 53% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -4.59 │ -4.62 │ -4.65 │

│ Assets │ -4.21 │ -4.23 │ -4.24 │

│ Currency │ -3.81 │ -3.82 │ -3.84 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘