- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV 2026, EC, OECD, RSF, Eurostat, Freedom House, IMF COFER) + Belgian official (Statbel, National Bank of Belgium) + Belgian/EU press (VRT, Le Soir, Euronews, ECRE).

- A EUROZONE member and host of EU/NATO headquarters; deeply democratic but structurally fragmented along the Flemish-Walloon divide (the federal coalition took ~8 months to form in early 2025).

- Standout features: strong institutions, an open trade-hub economy, and excellent healthcare, against a high public-debt load, an asylum-reception crisis, and Brussels/Antwerp narco-violence. Source-lean: MODERATE-HIGH Anglophone on the crime/asylum framing.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

An open trade-hub economy and sound banks, against a high public-debt load and a structural deficit. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 90% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 95% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - High debt ~108% GDP and the eurozone's largest deficit (~5.2%), with automatic wage indexation a structural drag and consolidation under-delivering. (IMF Art IV 2026; EC; NBB)

Monetary Independence - Pooled at the ECB - credible but not sovereign. (ECB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - A participant in the euro, the world's second reserve currency. (IMF COFER)

Inflation - Eased from shock peaks, with automatic indexation cushioning households but feeding a competitiveness problem. (NBB; Statbel)

Banking Stability - Sound, well-capitalised, and well-supervised. (IMF FSAP; NBB)

Trade Actions Capacity - An open trade-hub economy - a major port, a chemicals/pharma export base, EU-core logistics - no resource curse. (Eurostat; Statbel)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.24 │ 89% │

│ mid │ +2.24 │ 89% │

│ long │ +2.24 │ 89% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An independent judiciary, credible statistics, and a free press, with federal layering slowing execution. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - An independent judiciary that actively checks the government, with narco-corruption pressure the watch-item. (EC Rule of Law 2025; WJP)

Statistical Integrity - Statbel/NBB are credible and Eurostat-compliant. (Eurostat)

Civil Service Capacity - Capable, but complex federal/regional layering slows execution. (EC; OECD)

Press Freedom - Free (RSF ~16th) with protected public broadcasters. (RSF 2026)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, backed by tested parliamentary oversight and a long unbroken record of apolitical command.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +6.60 │ 83% │

│ mid │ +6.60 │ 83% │

│ long │ +6.60 │ 83% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong liberties, against chronic political fragmentation, an asylum-reception crisis, and narco-strains. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 85% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 85% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Deeply democratic but chronically slow to form governments (the federal coalition took ~8 months to early 2025), with a structural Flemish-Walloon split. (VRT; Le Soir)

Civil Liberties - Strong protections. (Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - Lawful EU routes but a severe reception crisis, with the state repeatedly found non-compliant with court orders. (ECRE; AIDA)

Social Cohesion - A linguistic divide, a Brussels integration/terrorism legacy, and narco-violence strains. (De Standaard; Le Soir)

Demographics - Ageing, with a migration-supported workforce. (Statbel; EC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.08 │ 83% │

│ mid │ +0.08 │ 83% │

│ long │ +0.08 │ 83% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A reliable NATO/EU-core member with an open capital account and no direct conflict. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A NATO and EU/NATO-headquarters host and core member, with defence spending lifted to ~2% of GDP from a historically low base. (NATO; VRT)

Conflict Involvement - No direct conflict, with high territorial security. (observed)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An EU regime with an open capital account. (EU)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +6.35 │ 85% │

│ mid │ +6.35 │ 85% │

│ long │ +6.35 │ 85% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Excellent healthcare and good infrastructure, against flood risk and urban narco-violence. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +0.50 │ 0.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 80% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Low-vulnerability temperate, top readiness, but North-Sea coastal/urban flooding (2021 floods); an AMOC-slowdown tail caveat. (ND-GAIN; EEA; IPCC AR6 AMOC)

Healthcare - Universal, high-quality, and accessible. (OECD Health at a Glance)

Infrastructure - Dense and good, with ageing assets and congestion. (OECD; EC)

Crime Safety - Moderate, with Brussels/Antwerp narco-trade violence and a terrorism legacy a watch-item. (Euronews; France24)

Disaster Insurance - A developed flood-insurance market with post-2021 reforms. (industry)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.03 │ 78% │

│ mid │ +3.94 │ 78% │

│ long │ +3.85 │ 78% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +3.55 │ 83% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +3.86 │ 85% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +3.57 │ 87% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +3.57 │ +3.56 │ +3.55 │

│ Assets │ +3.87 │ +3.86 │ +3.85 │

│ Currency │ +3.57 │ +3.57 │ +3.57 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘