- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF EFF/ECF/RSF reviews, World Bank, V-Dem, Freedom House, RSF, TI) + international press (Reuters, AFP, France 24, Washington Post, Al Jazeera) and UN Security Council/ICG on Sahel spillover.

- Macro star, political backslider: ~7.5% growth and an on-track IMF program against a decade of Talon-era opposition exclusion, jailed opponents, and an April-2026 succession election (Wadagni ~94%) that observers called neither free nor fair; the WAEMU CFA franc is pegged to the euro.

- Standout features: standout WAEMU macro performance and the GDIZ industrialization push; a hollowed-out competitive electoral process; and a sharp 2025 JNIM jihadist surge in the north (April attack the deadliest in a decade).

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

Standout WAEMU macro performance - ~7.5% growth, deficit at the 3% norm, low peg-anchored inflation - with cotton/oil-transit concentration the main risk. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ +2.50 │ +2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Frontloaded consolidation cut the deficit to ~3.1% of GDP in 2024, meeting the WAEMU 3% norm a year early; debt revised up to ~60.5% of GDP but moderate-risk under an on-track EFF/ECF/RSF program. (IMF Feb-2026)

Monetary Independence - The CFA-franc euro peg delivers credibility but zero autonomy under a France-guaranteed, BCEAO-pooled regime. (BCEAO/IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The CFA franc is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and peg-anchored (~1-3%) - a structural strength. (IMF)

Banking Stability - Sound within the WAEMU framework, with sovereign-exposure concentration the main watch-item. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Africa's top cotton producer moving up the value chain via the GDIZ zone (raw-cotton export ban from May 2025) and a Niger-oil transit pipeline; offset by commodity concentration and the closed Niger border. (IMF; France 24; African Energy)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.07 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +1.96 │ 74% │

│ long │ +1.85 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong macro/statistical capacity and civil service, undercut by an instrumentalized judiciary and a sharply pressured press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 78% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Courts used against opponents - the CRIET special court jailed presidential hopefuls and, in Jan-2025, sentenced Talon ally Boko and ex-minister Homeky to 20 years over an alleged coup plot. (HRW; Reuters; AFP)

Statistical Integrity - Strong and IMF-engaged through frequent program reviews. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Comparatively capable and reform-driven, anchoring the GDIZ and fiscal-management gains. (IMF/World Bank)

Press Freedom - Sharply eroded over the Talon decade - digital-code prosecutions of journalists and a poor RSF standing. (RSF)

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.38 │ 69% │

│ mid │ -0.38 │ 69% │

│ long │ -0.38 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Competitive politics hollowed out by opposition exclusion, atop a young population and a stressed northern periphery. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -3.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +1.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - An April-2026 succession election handed Talon's finance minister Wadagni ~94% with no credible opposition on the ballot - observers called it neither free nor fair; orderly but legitimacy-thin. (Washington Post; France 24)

Civil Liberties - Eroded - opposition figures jailed or exiled, candidacy rules (15% MP/mayor endorsements) used to lock out rivals, and curbs on assembly and expression. (Freedom House; V-Dem)

Treatment Non Citizens - No systematic abuse of foreigners; regional migration and Niger-border refugee/displacement pressures are the main strain. (UNHCR; observed)

Social Cohesion - Generally cohesive, but a north-south and Fulani-grievance fault line that jihadists are exploiting. (ICG)

Demographics - Very young and fast-growing - a dividend with a heavy jobs strain. (UN)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.26 │ 68% │

│ mid │ -2.20 │ 68% │

│ long │ -2.15 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A Western-aligned ECOWAS member but on the front line of southward Sahel jihadist spillover and a Niger-border standoff. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A stable Western/EU- and US-aligned ECOWAS member, though the Niger junta dispute strained a key neighbor. (observed)

Conflict Involvement - A severe 2025 JNIM surge in the north - ~35 soldiers killed in Jan, ~54 in April (the deadliest attack in a decade), drawing a UN Security Council statement. (UN; ICG; Critical Threats)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open WAEMU/CFA regime, unsanctioned; the closed Niger border is a bilateral friction. (IMF; observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.49 │ 74% │

│ mid │ -0.49 │ 74% │

│ long │ -0.49 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Improving logistics around Cotonou and the GDIZ, against flood/coastal climate exposure, a weak health system, and northern insecurity. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Coastal erosion on a low Gulf-of-Guinea shore, flooding, rain-fed farming, weak readiness. (ND-GAIN; IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - Weak and underfunded, with low coverage and reliance on external support. (World Bank/WHO)

Infrastructure - Improving - the Cotonou port, GDIZ, and the Niger transit pipeline - though northern roads and power lag. (AfDB; World Bank)

Crime Safety - Moderate in the south; the north carries jihadist/kidnapping and travel-advisory risk. (OSAC; observed)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration against flood exposure. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.15 │ 61% │

│ mid │ -2.25 │ 61% │

│ long │ -2.36 │ 61% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -0.81 │ 69% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.25 │ 71% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +1.01 │ 73% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -0.78 │ -0.80 │ -0.81 │

│ Assets │ +0.30 │ +0.25 │ +0.19 │

│ Currency │ +1.01 │ +0.95 │ +0.88 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘