- Live-data refresh (2026-08-25): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-14 -> 08-25 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central; WebSearch budget exhausted mid-pass, central verification via self-hosted SearXNG + targeted fetches), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war entered an economic-strangulation phase even as exit diplomacy advanced. The US launched the global secondary-sanctions campaign 'Operation Economic Outcast' (Aug 24, 60+ designations, all-sector scope); Iran's crude exports effectively halted (Kharg Island berths empty since July 31, satellite-verified; China-bound imports ~823k -> ~534k bpd); the rial crossed 2 million per dollar; Iran fired its first ballistic missiles toward the UAE (Aug 18) and the UAE, Iran's second-largest trade partner, cut ALL trade indefinitely (Aug 19). Yet no US strike on Iranian soil was confirmed in-window and Iran-Oman Hormuz-corridor talks reached joint-statement drafting in Tehran (Aug 25). A global long-bond rout (Aug 18) set multi-decade records (UK 50Y 5.392%; JGB 10Y highest since 1996); the US Treasury doubled long-end buybacks (Aug 19), the Fed-independence fight reopened (Cook removal deadline Aug 26), and DXY hit a 3-month low with gold at a 3-month high. US-Canada trade talks collapsed (Aug 21), first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect (Aug 22), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation (eff. Sept 8). Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Russia's Black Sea grain export capacity offline and Russian inflation crossed 10%. DRC Ebola deaths reached 2,642 (PHEIC reaffirmed) while Geneva produced an M23 peace-talks roadmap. Pakistan's KP floods killed 368 in five days and Islamabad defied a Supreme Court order on Imran Khan. Venezuela freed 131 political prisoners. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the Sept-2025 Libya 'Sorman/Zawiya clashes' recirculation, Ghana's pre-window IMF completion run as fresh, Cuba's pre-window Aug 2-3 blackout, and a third clean Thailand-Cambodia verification (ceasefire holds, ASEAN observers verifying). CORRECTION: Serbia's June 27-30 Vucic resignation-pledge arc, missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since 05-28, is booked late as a note. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-20): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-14 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran war DEEPENED rather than broke pattern - the US naval blockade of Iranian ports held all window, OFAC's wind-down GL X1 EXPIRED July 17 (full Iran oil sanctions restored), the US combat death toll rose to 17 (430+ wounded) after Iran hit Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti air base July 17, and the US ran a ninth consecutive night of strikes (incl. the Darkhovin nuclear-plant site, IAEA reviewing). Iran's retaliation crossed a threshold: it struck Kuwait's power + desalination plant twice (first civilian-infrastructure targeting) and Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields (-140-150k bpd), and on July 20 the Houthis opened a new front with a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia (ending the 2022 truce). Brent ran to ~$88-90; Hormuz war-risk hull premiums held at 3-10% of value. Secondary: the EU FROZE the $44.10 Russia oil cap for one week to July 23 (the prior pass's lapse risk did NOT materialize - held, not scored as relief) with the 21st sanctions package still stalled (a narrow Kyiv-strike mini-package adopted July 17 instead); Russia's MOEX hit a 17-week losing streak (worst since 1997), the deficit overshot plan by ~1T rubles and the ruble slid ~8%/mo to ~78.6; Ukraine's Kerch Strait / Don-Azov shipping halt PERSISTED with no reopening as Russia hit Kyiv with a 41-missile barrage July 19; the Poland-Ukraine White Eagle rift DE-ESCALATED (Zelensky opened SBU archives July 17, Tusk welcomed it); Andy Burnham became UK PM July 20 (7th in a decade but a clean handover, dropped digital ID); Israel's Knesset dissolved on schedule July 17 (Oct 27 elections) after a judicial-oversight/media legislative blitz; China's Q2 GDP printed 4.3% (weakest since 2022); India's rupee broke past its defense band to ~96.4; deadly monsoon flooding hit Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal; Nicaragua's Ortega declared no more elections; Cuba logged its 5th total grid collapse of 2026; Venezuela's quake toll passed 5,200; DRC's Ebola became the fastest-growing month-on-month; Mali's JNIM/FLA reversed the Anefis gain; Morocco released journalist Ali Lmrabet; a M7.4 quake struck the Mexico-Guatemala border. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV, World Bank, ADB, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem) + Bangladeshi official (BBS, Bangladesh Bank) + Bangladeshi independent press (The Daily Star, Prothom Alo, bdnews24, TBS).

- A post-revolution transition: the 2024 student uprising ousted the long-ruling prime minister; an interim government ran reforms with early-2026 polls producing an elected government - the transition resolving but contested.

- Standout drags: a fragile, fraud-exposed banking sector, extreme climate vulnerability, and social-revenge volatility; offsets are a demographic dividend and a reform/press opening. Source-lean: MODERATE-HIGH Anglophone; Bengali-language reporting under-read.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed (declining) - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Official data is compromised, but a free press and courts still surface the truth. Scores lean on those independent channels, and the state is sliding toward opacity - the confidence here is capped and falling.

A garment-export powerhouse with a reforming central bank, against a fraud-exposed banking sector and a thin tax base. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - A moderate debt load but among the world's lowest tax takes (~7% of GDP) and IMF-program dependence with reserve stress. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - The central bank is rebuilding after 2024 - holding rates and ending FX slippage - from a historically constrained base. (Bangladesh Bank; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The taka is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Around 9% and easing slowly, with money-printing risk flagged. (BBS; IMF)

Banking Stability - Very high NPLs exposed by a post-2024 asset-quality review of looted banks, with a cleanup deadline - deep fragility. (TBS; World Bank)

Trade Actions Capacity - A top-tier garment-export powerhouse but with heavy single-sector concentration and a looming LDC-graduation tariff loss. (IGC; WTO)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.88 │ 75% │

│ mid │ -2.88 │ 75% │

│ long │ -2.88 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A weak base now reforming, with a press opening from a repressive era. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 72% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -3.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A weak rule-of-law base, though among the biggest recent improvers under interim-government reforms. (WJP 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Official-data quality is questioned, with prior politicisation. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - The flood exposed a state-capacity failure in relief: eight days into the disaster ~80% of families in the worst-hit areas had received no government assistance, and Chattogram's cash relief (~Tk 8.5M / ~$69,000 against 750,000 affected) was grossly inadequate (WSWS - independent, framing-flagged; scale corroborated by wire). A concrete administrative-delivery failure atop the post-Hasina transition: worsened -4 -> -5; confidence held.

Press Freedom - A poor RSF standing but a real opening from the prior repressive era, still fragile (newsroom attacks). (RSF; Prothom Alo)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.66 │ 69% │

│ mid │ -4.52 │ 69% │

│ long │ -4.37 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A demographic dividend, against a contested transition, refugee-camp strain, and social-revenge volatility. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -2.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A 2024 student revolution ousted the long-ruling prime minister; an interim government ran reforms and early-2026 polls produced an elected government - the transition resolving but contested, with street unrest persisting. (Diplomat; IRI)

Civil Liberties - Improving from a repressive base, against mob-violence concerns. (Freedom House; RSF)

Treatment Non Citizens - Hosts ~1.2M Rohingya refugees in strained camps with repatriation blocked; not a relocation destination. (Amnesty; UNHCR)

Social Cohesion - Six months into the BNP government, a rights organization documented at least 66 politically-related killings, 61 deaths in police custody and 11 extrajudicial killings, with police data showing ~10 murders/day nationally (1,238 in March-June) - the post-Hasina transition has not broken the structural violence and impunity culture (wire via Manila Times, July 13 - independent; consistent with HRW's 2026 chapter). Worsened -5 -> -6; confidence held.

Demographics - A young workforce and replacement-level fertility - a genuine dividend, with high youth unemployment. (UNFPA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.96 │ 74% │

│ mid │ -2.66 │ 74% │

│ long │ -2.35 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A foreign policy in flux, with Myanmar-border instability the main external exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Rebalancing - India ties strained post-2024, with China, Pakistan, and the US courted - in flux. (ORF; Chatham House)

Conflict Involvement - No external war, but Myanmar-border instability (an armed group holding the frontier) and Rohingya/Rakhine spillover. (CNN; bdnews24)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An FX-control history, unsanctioned. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.38 │ 70% │

│ mid │ -2.38 │ 70% │

│ long │ -2.38 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Recent megaprojects, against extreme delta-climate vulnerability and near-nil catastrophe cover. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 90% │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Held at near -7: Greater Chittagong flooding affected 1M+ people across 10 districts including Rohingya camps (IOM: among the season's most severe monsoon emergencies). Within the booked exposure envelope; the long -9 tail stands.

Healthcare - Low spend with improving basic indicators, uneven. (World Bank)

Infrastructure - Recent megaprojects delivered (a major bridge, a metro), but congested and power-strained. (TBS)

Crime Safety - Moderate, with post-revolution law-and-order deterioration. (Daily Star)

Disaster Insurance - Near-nil penetration against extreme exposure. (inferred)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.15 │ 72% │

│ mid │ -4.35 │ 72% │

│ long │ -4.56 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -3.45 │ 72% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -3.32 │ 72% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -3.15 │ 73% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -3.67 │ -3.56 │ -3.45 │

│ Assets │ -3.37 │ -3.32 │ -3.28 │

│ Currency │ -3.15 │ -3.11 │ -3.06 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘