- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV, EC, Eurostat, ECB, WHO/OECD, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem) + Bulgarian official (NSI, Bulgarian National Bank) + Bulgarian/regional press (Novinite, Balkan Insight, OSW).

- Joined the euro on 2026-01-01 (ending the currency board) and full Schengen in 2025; quietly positive macro fundamentals offset by institutional, demographic, and health weaknesses.

- Standout drags: the EU's weakest rule-of-law/corruption record, chronic political instability, the world's fastest-shrinking population, and poor health outcomes; low debt and euro entry are the offsets. Source-lean: MODERATE Anglophone.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

Very low debt, euro entry, and diversified exports - the quiet strength of the profile. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt ~30% GDP (among the EU's lowest), though the 2025 deficit (~3.5%) breached the 3% mark; currency-board-disciplined. (Eurostat; IMF Art IV)

Monetary Independence - A currency board now succeeded by euro adoption (Jan 2026) - policy ECB-pooled, the central bank on the Governing Council. (ECB; BNB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Now a euro member, gaining shared reserve-currency status. (ECB)

Inflation - Eased to ~2.7% to meet the euro criterion, with some post-changeover pass-through risk. (EC/ECB convergence reports)

Banking Stability - Sound, with strong credit growth, now Eurosystem-supervised. (IMF Art IV; BNB)

Trade Actions Capacity - Diversified exports (electronics, a large ICT sector), EU single-market and nearshoring; no resource curse. (EC; trade.gov)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.04 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +4.04 │ 75% │

│ long │ +4.04 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Credible statistics, against the EU's weakest rule-of-law record and oligarchic capture. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 90% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Near the EU's bottom - oligarchic capture and near-zero high-level corruption convictions; EU-monitored reform only. (TI CPI; EC Rule of Law Report)

Statistical Integrity - NSI is Eurostat-compliant and usable. (Eurostat; NSI)

Civil Service Capacity - Politicised, with deadlocked appointments and some recovery-fund-driven digitalisation. (EC; BTI 2026)

Press Freedom - Recovered from a near-bottom EU standing but slipped again (RSF ~70th), with SLAPPs and ownership opacity. (RSF 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.71 │ 72% │

│ mid │ -0.71 │ 72% │

│ long │ -0.71 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Chronic political churn and the world's fastest-shrinking population, against strong EU-standard liberties. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 90% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 90% │ -4.0 │ -6.0 │ -8.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Around eight elections in five years, with governments resigning amid anti-corruption protests - democratic but chronically unstable. (Wilson Center; BTI 2026)

Civil Liberties - EU-standard and generally strong. (V-Dem/Freedom House class)

Treatment Non Citizens - An EU member in full Schengen with lawful routes; emigration-heavy with modest immigration. (EC)

Social Cohesion - Polarised, with Roma exclusion and anti-corruption and pro/anti-Russia cleavages. (BTI; OSW)

Demographics - Among the world's fastest-shrinking populations - deaths roughly twice births, heavy emigration, and deep ageing. (NSI; UN/OSW)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.61 │ 72% │

│ mid │ -0.82 │ 72% │

│ long │ -1.03 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A net Western-aligned NATO/EU member, with a persistent Russia-sympathetic strand and Black Sea adjacency. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A NATO and EU member and Black Sea frontline, net Western-aligned, with a persistent Russia-sympathetic strand. (multilateral)

Conflict Involvement - No active war, but Ukraine/Black-Sea-adjacent spillover risk. (press)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open EU regime with free capital movement, now euro. (EC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.25 │ 73% │

│ mid │ +2.25 │ 73% │

│ long │ +2.25 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Improving EU-funded infrastructure, against the EU's worst health outcomes and a coal-transition lag. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 90% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - SE-Europe heat/drought and Black-Sea/agro water stress, the lowest-readiness EU member, markedly worse by mid-century. (ND-GAIN; EEA)

Healthcare - The EU's lowest per-capita spend and highest treatable mortality, with heavy medic emigration. (WHO/OECD)

Infrastructure - Historically poor, improving via EU/recovery funds. (EC; OECD)

Crime Safety - Low homicide but entrenched organized-crime/trafficking transit. (OC Index 2025)

Disaster Insurance - Medium seismic (including Sofia) and flood exposure against low penetration. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.95 │ 70% │

│ mid │ -3.15 │ 70% │

│ long │ -3.35 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -0.30 │ 72% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +1.44 │ 73% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +2.63 │ 74% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -0.11 │ -0.20 │ -0.30 │

│ Assets │ +1.48 │ +1.44 │ +1.40 │

│ Currency │ +2.63 │ +2.62 │ +2.61 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘