- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-21): discovery-first sweep since the 2026-07-20 pass (tight 1-day window; most scores held), triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press, run largely on the self-hosted lab search after the metered cap was exhausted, with the two highest-impact items hand-verified. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war deepened a second day - a 10th consecutive night of US strikes, the two Jordan-base US fatalities identified (toll ~17), Iran hitting Kuwait's power/desalination plant a 4th straight day (water rationing in 50C heat) and striking a Kuwaiti-flagged tanker in Hormuz, and the Houthi blockade on Saudi Arabia moving from declaration to ENFORCEMENT (Saudi tankers bound for China/India U-turned, refiners rerouting via Suez) - BUT the positive-skew exit appeared, as Qatar, Egypt and Pakistan conveyed a 10-day ceasefire proposal to Tehran, so Iran's conflict score holds off the floor. Brent topped $90. Elsewhere: a US federal judge ordered the DC National Guard deployment ENDED, reversing the 2029 pre-commitment (US rule_of_law eased, appeal pending), while Trump imposed 50% tariffs on most Canadian goods (US + Canada trade worsened); Ukraine saw a 5th day of rare wartime protests over Defense Minister Fedorov's dismissal (political_stability down); Moldova's parliament approved the Tofan government (vacancy resolved); the UK's new PM sacked his chancellor and gilt yields hit a 2-month high (fiscal down); DR Congo's Ebola outbreak passed 930 deaths with health workers striking (healthcare to the floor). CORRECTION: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' item flagged last pass was misdated 2025 coverage - the real in-window state is a diplomatic stalemate, not combat, and is not scored. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics rebuilt from independent sources (IMF Art IV, World Bank, V-Dem, RSF, Freedom House, HRW, Amnesty, TI) + non-Bahraini press; Bahraini state media EXCLUDED there, with economic figures admitted only via IMF validation.

- A Sunni monarchy ruling a Shia-majority population (the 2011 uprising was crushed with Gulf help); the dinar is hard-pegged to the USD. Migrant workers are roughly half the population under kafala-legacy controls.

- Standout drags: the weakest fiscal position in the Gulf, mass post-2011 political imprisonment, and a sectarian fat-tail; offsets are a strong finance sector, the US 5th-Fleet alliance, and low crime.

- Recalibrated 2026-05-29 for the 2026 Iran war (Operation Epic Fury, US+Israel vs Iran from 28 Feb) and the Strait of Hormuz closure: blockade of ~1/5 of world oil+LNG, attacks/threats on Gulf desalination (water security), and the global energy shock. The two-week 8 Apr ceasefire collapsed by late May - the US renewed strikes on Iran ~25-26 May (Trump convened Camp David) and the war resumed, with Hormuz still blockaded. (Reuters; BBC; NYT; CNN; ISW; Al Jazeera; CSIS; Wikipedia)

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A strong finance sector and peg-anchored low inflation, against the Gulf's weakest fiscal position. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -2.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - The weakest Gulf fiscal position - debt ~120%+ GDP, persistent deficits, depleting oil, reliant on GCC support after the 2018 bailout. (IMF Art IV; World Bank)

Monetary Independence - A hard, long-standing USD peg - near-zero autonomy but stable. (IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Peg stability but thin reserve buffers; not a reserve issuer. (IMF)

Inflation - Low and peg-anchored (~1-2%). (IMF)

Banking Stability - A large, well-regulated financial-services hub - a relative strength, with a sovereign-bank-nexus vulnerability. (IMF; CBB)

Trade Actions Capacity - Oil exports and refining feedstock move via the blockaded strait; a small, highly exposed economy. (Reuters)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.90 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -0.56 │ 60% │

│ long │ -0.22 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Capable wealth-funded administration, against no political-sphere judicial independence and a crushed press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 50% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A near-absolute monarchy with no judicial independence on political matters and corruption. (Freedom House; V-Dem; TI)

Statistical Integrity - Economic data is IMF-validated; the political sphere is opaque. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - A capable, oil/finance-funded administration. (IMF)

Press Freedom - A bottom-tier RSF standing, with independent media crushed post-2011. (RSF; Freedom House)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an instrument of a ruling family. Command appointments follow the succession line. No independent oversight body exists.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.35 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -1.35 │ 59% │

│ long │ -1.35 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Suppressed stability over a sectarian majority, with mass political imprisonment. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 72% │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 78% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 72% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A Sunni monarchy over a Shia majority; the 2011 uprising was crushed with Gulf help - suppressed stability with a sectarian fat-tail. (Freedom House; HRW)

Civil Liberties - Rated 'Not Free' - mass political imprisonment, the opposition dissolved, and criminalised expression. (Freedom House; Amnesty)

Treatment Non Citizens - Easy employer-sponsored entry and no income tax, but a kafala-legacy ceiling, no citizenship path, and a politicised-naturalisation grievance. (HRW; Amnesty)

Social Cohesion - A deep, structural Sunni-Shia sectarian cleavage. (HRW; V-Dem)

Demographics - Migrant-skewed (~half the population) with a small young citizen base. (UN; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.80 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.10 │ 60% │

│ long │ -4.40 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A US-anchored Gulf ally with an open account, against Iran-proximity exposure. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 72% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 82% │ -10.0 │ -7.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Worsened 6 -> 4: the Fifth Fleet home port being damaged while the US publicly understates base damage elsewhere (Jordan) raises the cost of hosting US forces without commensurate protection. Confidence 0.78 -> 0.72.

Conflict Involvement - Worsened near -9 -> -10, the floor, and long -3 -> -4: Acting US Navy Secretary Hung Cao acknowledged Sept 13 that NSA Bahrain, home of the Fifth Fleet, has been damaged by Iranian strikes to the point that USS Abraham Lincoln's crew 'have nowhere to pull in' and a task force is assessing restoration (HNGN, Nation of Change, Sept 15). Bahrain also refused to join any collective Hormuz meeting with Iran until diplomatic ties severed since 2016 are restored, citing the Petroline-adjacent ammonia-tank attack. A US hub base rendered unusable is a category above prior overflight/strike exposure.

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open capital account, unsanctioned. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.40 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +0.65 │ 60% │

│ long │ +1.70 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Modern healthcare, infrastructure, and low crime, against extreme heat and sea-level risk. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -4.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +3.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 75% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - A tiny low-lying Gulf state - extreme wet-bulb heat by mid-century and sea-level/coastal squeeze, partly offset by wealth/AC. (IPCC AR6; WB)

Healthcare - Good, modern, and well-funded. (independent)

Infrastructure - A desalination plant on this water-scarce island was actually struck during the war - a direct hit to the drinking-water lifeline, not just a threat. (NYT; Guardian)

Crime Safety - Low crime - a strength. (independent)

Disaster Insurance - Low natural-catastrophe exposure besides heat and sea-level. (UN)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.05 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +3.15 │ 60% │

│ long │ +3.25 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -1.25 │ 60% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -0.56 │ 60% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -1.06 │ 60% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -1.31 │ -1.28 │ -1.25 │

│ Assets │ -0.83 │ -0.56 │ -0.28 │

│ Currency │ -1.06 │ -0.71 │ -0.36 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘