- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank/IDB, Central Bank of The Bahamas, FATF, Freedom House, RSF) + international and Bahamian press.

- A high-income, well-governed tourism-and-offshore-finance democracy on a USD peg, off the EU tax grey list (2024) and FATF-compliant - but with an existential hurricane tail (Dorian, 2019).

- Standout features: credible institutions and an improving fiscal path (debt ~74% and falling on primary surpluses), against a fat catastrophe tail (~80% of land within ~1.5m of sea level), still-high (if falling) Nassau crime, and hard-edged treatment of Haitian migrants.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

Low inflation and sound banks on a credible USD peg, with debt falling but distress risk without sustained effort. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +1.0 │ +1.50 │ +2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt ~74% of GDP and falling, three consecutive primary surpluses, a new minimum top-up tax; 'high risk of debt distress' without sustained measures keeps the near-term modest. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - The BSD is pegged 1:1 to the USD - monetary policy is subordinated to defending the (credible) peg. (Central Bank of The Bahamas; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The BSD is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and imported via the peg - projected below 1% in 2025. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Banking Stability - Well-capitalized, liquid domestic banks; a large but shrinking international book; pioneered the Sand Dollar CBDC. (IMF; Central Bank)

Trade Actions Capacity - Narrow but high-value: tourism (esp. cruise) plus offshore finance, with little goods diversity and external-demand sensitivity. (IMF; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.42 │ 86% │

│ mid │ +0.53 │ 86% │

│ long │ +0.64 │ 86% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A functioning common-law democracy with credible data and a free press, with corruption and no FOI law. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A functioning common-law democracy with independent courts; persistent government/police-corruption concerns and no FOI law are the drags. (Freedom House 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Credible, IMF-cited official data from the central bank and statistics office. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - A reasonably capable administration that delivered fiscal consolidation and AML reform, with small-state limits. (IMF; FATF)

Press Freedom - Free, pluralistic media, generally respected, with libel-law and small-market ownership constraints. (Freedom House; RSF)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.96 │ 75% │

│ mid │ +2.96 │ 75% │

│ long │ +2.96 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A mature two-party Westminster democracy, blemished by hard-edged treatment of Haitian migrants. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 90% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +0.50 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A stable, mature two-party Westminster democracy; the PLP re-elected May 2026 (the first incumbent re-election since 1997), peaceful transfers the norm. (AP/WaPo 2026)

Civil Liberties - Generally respected; the main blemish is harsh treatment of Haitian migrants/Bahamians of Haitian descent. (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - A high-income destination with legal routes, but hard-edged, often due-process-light enforcement against Haitian migrants dominates the picture. (Freedom House; human-rights reporting)

Social Cohesion - Broadly cohesive, but inequality, anti-Haitian sentiment, and gang/retaliatory violence in Nassau are real strains. (Freedom House; RBPF)

Demographics - Stable and slowly aging, with an NHI-flagged aging-cost pressure and skilled emigration. (NHI; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.82 │ 79% │

│ mid │ +1.78 │ 79% │

│ long │ +1.73 │ 79% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable pro-US/Western partner, conflict-free, off the EU grey list with residual exchange controls. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A stable, pro-US/Western Caribbean partner (CARICOM, close US ties) with no coercive dependency. (IMF; State Dept)

Conflict Involvement - No conflict or territorial threat; the main external exposure is Haitian-migration spillover, not war. (Freedom House)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Not sanctioned and off the EU grey list (2024), FATF-compliant; long-standing resident exchange controls are a structural friction. (FATF; IMF AREAER)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.67 │ 81% │

│ mid │ +3.67 │ 81% │

│ long │ +3.67 │ 81% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Among the most climate-exposed states on earth, with chronic Nassau crime. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -1.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - A low-lying limestone archipelago (~80% of land <1m) - the Dorian/Beryl precedent plus sea-level rise is near-existential. (IPCC AR6 SLR)

Healthcare - Decent access by regional standards, expanding NHI toward universal coverage, but with financing strain and overseas referral for complex care. (NHI; PAHO)

Infrastructure - Good in Nassau/Freeport and tourism zones, but archipelagic geography makes Family-Islands service and post-storm recovery hard. (IDB)

Crime Safety - Nassau violent crime is the chronic concern; murders fell 31% in 2025 but the rate (~21/100k) remains high. (RBPF; Nassau Guardian 2025)

Disaster Insurance - A functioning market plus sovereign CCRIF parametric cover, but the true catastrophe loss far exceeds payouts and reinsurance pricing is hardening. (CCRIF; WRI)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.70 │ 76% │

│ mid │ -1.84 │ 76% │

│ long │ -1.99 │ 76% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +1.52 │ 78% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +1.47 │ 81% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +1.43 │ 82% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +1.56 │ +1.54 │ +1.52 │

│ Assets │ +1.44 │ +1.47 │ +1.49 │

│ Currency │ +1.43 │ +1.50 │ +1.56 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘