- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV 2025, World Bank, EC, RSF, TI, EEA, UNFPA) + regional independent press (Balkan Insight, OSW); Bosnian-language entity-level and Republika Srpska-side sourcing under-sampled.

- A dysfunctional Dayton ethnic power-sharing state with an active Republika Srpska secession tail; macro stability (a euro-pegged currency board) is the offset.

- Standout drags: governance paralysis and corruption, an RS secession/conflict tail, deep ethnic division, and severe depopulation. Source-lean: MODERATE-HIGH Western/reformist framing.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

Sound macro discipline (a euro-pegged currency board), undercut by political gridlock and fragmentation. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Low debt (~36% GDP) but a widening deficit and election-driven budget gridlock. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - A euro-pegged currency board - zero autonomy but two decades of credible stability. (CBBH; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The pegged mark has no reserve role. (CBBH)

Inflation - Peg-anchored and low (~2.5-3%). (IMF; CBBH)

Banking Stability - Sound and largely EU-owned, with uneven reform. (IMF Art IV)

Trade Actions Capacity - Metals/manufacturing and EU trade plus heavy remittances, but small and fragmented by the dual-entity structure. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.10 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +1.10 │ 74% │

│ long │ +1.10 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A dysfunctional Dayton structure with pervasive corruption and a captured RS press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Dysfunctional ethnic-veto governance and pervasive corruption (near the EU's bottom), still overseen by an international High Representative. (TI; EC)

Statistical Integrity - Fragmented across entities, usable but inconsistent. (World Bank)

Civil Service Capacity - Bloated and duplicated across two entities, cantons, and a district - weak delivery. (EC; TI)

Press Freedom - A falling RSF rank, worst in Republika Srpska (public-broadcaster capture), with ethnic/political pressure. (RSF 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.10 │ 68% │

│ mid │ -3.10 │ 68% │

│ long │ -3.10 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Chronic dysfunction with an active secession tail and deep ethnic division. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 86% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 86% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 90% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - HELD at -6, confidence 0.85 -> 0.86: Bosnia heads to an Oct 4 general election with no functioning state-level government and a stalled EU accession path, and the constitutional ethnic power-sharing structure makes a quick post-election resolution unlikely (bne IntelliNews). The Mladic reaction arrives on top of that vacuum.

Civil Liberties - Formal freedoms, ethnically constrained, with shrinking civic space (an RS 'foreign agents' law). (TI; IDEA)

Treatment Non Citizens - Lawful-ish, under Balkan transit-route pressure. (multilateral)

Social Cohesion - Worsened -6 -> -7: Ratko Mladic died in UN custody on Aug 27 while serving a genocide life sentence, and reactions split starkly along ethnic lines. Republika Srpska's Dodik called the death 'a killing', described it as organized, and hailed Mladic as a fighter for Serbian freedom at a Banja Luka memorial (Balkan Insight; the death itself is confirmed across Washington Post, CNN, Al Jazeera, NPR and ABC). A sitting entity leader publicly honouring a convicted genocidaire is a direct measure of how little the Hague's findings are shared across the country.

Demographics - Severe decline (~3.1M and falling, very low fertility, a large diaspora), projected to halve by 2100. (UNFPA; OSW)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.20 │ 70% │

│ mid │ -4.20 │ 70% │

│ long │ -4.20 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An EU candidate with a peacekeeping presence, but internally split and Russia-stoked. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - An EU candidate with an EUFOR presence, but the RS entity is Russia/Serbia-leaning - internally split and unreliable. (Security Council Report)

Conflict Involvement - No active war but a real Russia-stoked renewed-conflict/secession tail. (LSE)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Open and EU-aligning, complicated by sanctions on RS leadership. (multilateral)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.54 │ 71% │

│ mid │ -2.54 │ 71% │

│ long │ -2.54 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Flood/seismic exposure and severe coal-driven air pollution, with fragmented services. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Balkan warming with drought, wildfire, and flood swings, with low adaptive readiness. (ND-GAIN; WB Western Balkans CCDR)

Healthcare - Fragmented across entities, uneven, with medic emigration. (WHO; UNFPA)

Infrastructure - Poor-to-moderate, with fragmented governance. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - Moderate, with organized-crime/border-corruption issues. (TI)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration against high flood/seismic exposure. (EEA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.52 │ 64% │

│ mid │ -2.61 │ 64% │

│ long │ -2.70 │ 64% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -2.68 │ 69% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -1.32 │ 71% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -0.48 │ 72% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -2.65 │ -2.66 │ -2.68 │

│ Assets │ -1.31 │ -1.32 │ -1.33 │

│ Currency │ -0.48 │ -0.48 │ -0.48 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘