- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics rebuilt from independent sources (IMF/World Bank where available, V-Dem, RSF, Freedom House, HRW, OHCHR, Viasna, CPJ) + exile press (Zerkalo, Belsat); Belarusian state media and official statistics EXCLUDED there.

- A Russia-client dictatorship and co-belligerent staging-ground for the war in Ukraine; a 2026 US-brokered prisoner deal eased some sanctions but did not reverse the structure.

- Standout drags: a dictatorship with ~1,000 political prisoners, among the worst press freedom, a sanctioned Russia-tied economy, and co-belligerent war status. Overall: clearly negative.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A sanctioned, Russia-subsidy-dependent, state-dominated economy. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 75% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Opaque and dependent on a large Russian energy subsidy, sanctioned. (IMF/FREE Network)

Monetary Independence - No central-bank independence - a managed, Russia-tied, sanctioned ruble. (independent analysis)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Not held externally. (definitional)

Inflation - Elevated and sticky (~6-7%). (IMF 2026)

Banking Stability - SWIFT-cut and Russia-propped, with only partial 2026 relief. (Atlantic Council)

Trade Actions Capacity - Potash, oil-refining, and machinery, but state-dominated, sanctioned, and rerouted via Russia. (Kyiv Post)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.61 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.61 │ 60% │

│ long │ -4.61 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A capable coercive apparatus atop a dictatorship with no rule of law and crushed media. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 75% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 90% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 50% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A dictatorship with no judicial independence. (V-Dem; Freedom House)

Statistical Integrity - Politicised and opaque. (independent economic consensus)

Civil Service Capacity - A capable coercive/administrative apparatus. (Freedom House)

Press Freedom - Among the world's worst - dozens of journalists jailed and independent media branded 'extremist'. (RSF; CPJ)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are constitutionally or practically an instrument of a ruling party or a personalist ruler. Civilian control exists in form. Professional insulation from politics does not exist at all. Loyalty purges are therefore an available tool.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.45 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -5.45 │ 59% │

│ long │ -5.45 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Entrenched dictatorship, atrocity-level repression, a weaponized border, and an educated exodus. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 80% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Entrenched since 1994, with the 2020 stolen election and crushed protests; managed/suppressed stability propped by Russia, with a succession fat-tail. (Freedom House)

Civil Liberties - HELD at -9. Lukashenko moved against Belarusian expatriate students in Lithuania on Sept 2 amid continuing tension with Vilnius (The World, PRX). Extraterritorial pressure on citizens who have already fled corroborates an already severe level rather than moving it. A 'Belarus detains students marking new term with protests' item that surfaced as current was verified as recirculated August 2020 content and is excluded.

Treatment Non Citizens - A weaponized EU border and a repression state. (HRW/OHCHR)

Social Cohesion - A society repressed or exiled (~300k+ fled), with Russification. (OSW)

Demographics - Ageing and shrinking, with an exodus of the educated. (OSW)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.55 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -6.55 │ 60% │

│ long │ -6.55 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A Russia satellite and co-belligerent staging-ground, a pariah to the West. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 85% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A Russia satellite hosting Russian nuclear weapons, a pariah to the West. (Atlantic Council)

Conflict Involvement - A co-belligerent staging-ground for the Russia-Ukraine war, with NATO-border militarization. (Atlantic Council)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Heavily Western-sanctioned with capital controls, easing only partially in 2026. (US Treasury)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -7.75 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -7.75 │ 60% │

│ long │ -7.75 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Adequate Soviet-legacy systems under sanctions strain, with a state-violence safety duality. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +1.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Mid/high-latitude continental - a near-term windowed gain (longer seasons, milder winters) that fades long-term with drought variability and lower readiness. (Burke et al.; IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - Soviet-legacy, declining and sanctions-strained. (general)

Infrastructure - Soviet-legacy, adequate-ish but underinvested. (general)

Crime Safety - Low street crime but high state-violence risk - a duality. (Freedom House)

Disaster Insurance - A negligible market. (general)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.05 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -2.15 │ 60% │

│ long │ -2.25 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -5.29 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -5.24 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -5.35 │ 60% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -5.26 │ -5.27 │ -5.29 │

│ Assets │ -5.23 │ -5.24 │ -5.25 │

│ Currency │ -5.35 │ -5.35 │ -5.35 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘