- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, IDB, Central Bank of Belize, Freedom House, RSF, InSight Crime) + international and Belizean press.

- A stable democracy with a striking debt turnaround - the 2021 'blue bond' debt-for-nature swap cut public debt from ~103% of GDP (2020) to ~61% (2024), with the IMF targeting 50% by FY2030.

- Standout features: an improving fiscal/governance profile and a free press, against thin reserves, correspondent-banking de-risking, hurricane exposure, elevated (falling) crime, and the unresolved Guatemala claim at the ICJ.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A striking debt turnaround and low inflation on a USD peg, against thin reserves and bank de-risking. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.50 │ +3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt cut to ~61% of GDP (2024) from 103% (2020); the IMF endorses a path to 50% by FY2030 but flags slow consolidation and a post-2032 blue-loan repayment cliff. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - The BZD is pegged 2:1 to the USD since 1976 - no independent monetary policy, the peg is the primary mandate. (Central Bank of Belize)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The BZD is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Moderated sharply to ~1.0% (May 2025) from ~4% a year earlier. (IMF; Central Bank of Belize)

Banking Stability - Domestic banks broadly stable, but acute correspondent-banking de-risking (banks lost ~83% of CBRs 2013-16) remains a structural fragility for trade/tourism payments. (IDB; CSIS)

Trade Actions Capacity - A very small, open, tourism/agriculture (sugar, citrus)-dependent economy; thin reserves limit shock-absorption and any trade leverage. (IMF 2025)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.31 │ 76% │

│ mid │ +0.41 │ 76% │

│ long │ +0.51 │ 76% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Functioning democratic institutions and a free press, with corruption and impunity for violent crime. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Functioning courts and democratic norms (Freedom House 'Free', 87/100), but corruption and impunity for violent crime are noted weaknesses. (Freedom House)

Statistical Integrity - Engages credibly with the IMF/World Bank Article IV process, but a small statistical apparatus and data gaps warrant lower confidence. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Limited administrative depth typical of a ~410k-population state; reform-implementation capacity is a recurring IMF concern. (IMF)

Press Freedom - RSF 2025 ranked Belize 47/180 - a pluralistic, generally free media environment. (RSF)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.66 │ 59% │

│ mid │ +1.66 │ 59% │

│ long │ +1.66 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A regular peaceful-rotation democracy in a diverse, broadly peaceful society with localized gang violence. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 45% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - PM Briceno/PUP re-elected decisively (26 seats) in March 2025, with regular peaceful power rotation, US/OAS-endorsed. (National Assembly; US State Dept)

Civil Liberties - Mostly respected (Freedom House civil liberties 53/60), with police-conduct and crime-related concerns. (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - Hosts Central American migrants/refugees - generally tolerant but capacity-constrained. (lower confidence)

Social Cohesion - Diverse (Creole, Mestizo, Maya, Garifuna) and broadly peaceful, with gang violence localized in Belize City. (InSight Crime)

Demographics - A young, growing population - a long-run asset if jobs/education keep pace, favorable vs aging peers. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.18 │ 64% │

│ mid │ +3.18 │ 64% │

│ long │ +3.18 │ 64% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Stable Western/CARICOM alignment, with the Guatemala claim a low-probability high-tail-risk overhang. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -0.50 │ 0.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A stable Western/Commonwealth/CARICOM-aligned UK/US partner pursuing ICJ resolution diplomatically. (observed)

Conflict Involvement - No active conflict; the Guatemala claim is being arbitrated peacefully at the ICJ (President Arevalo pledged to honor the ruling) - an unresolved sovereignty tail. (ICJ)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Not sanctioned; the main external-finance vulnerability is bank de-risking rather than capital controls. (IDB/CSIS)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.41 │ 57% │

│ mid │ +0.59 │ 57% │

│ long │ +0.78 │ 57% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

High hurricane/flood exposure and elevated (falling) gang crime, with improving but gappy services. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -5.0 │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Low coastal cays plus reef dependence plus a dry-corridor edge, high vulnerability. (WB CCDR)

Healthcare - A basic public system with limited specialist capacity, typical of a low-resource SIDS. (general)

Infrastructure - Improving (tourism-driven) but with transport/utility gaps the IMF flags as a priority. (IMF)

Crime Safety - Homicide ~21.7/100k (2024), among the higher regional rates though below the Northern Triangle and falling (~-29% H1 2025); concentrated and gang-driven. (Belize Crime Observatory; InSight Crime)

Disaster Insurance - CCRIF parametric coverage available regionally, but the protection gap and fiscal exposure to large storms remain significant. (CCRIF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.06 │ 62% │

│ mid │ -3.31 │ 62% │

│ long │ -3.55 │ 62% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +1.11 │ 63% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.63 │ 66% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +0.68 │ 69% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +1.13 │ +1.12 │ +1.11 │

│ Assets │ +0.58 │ +0.63 │ +0.68 │

│ Currency │ +0.68 │ +0.77 │ +0.86 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘