- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-07): news pull since the 2026-06-18 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire proved repeatedly reversible (remote MoU June 17 + 60-day Burgenstock roadmap June 21, then a Kiku-tanker strike -> US strikes on 5 Iranian sites -> Iranian retaliation on US bases in Kuwait/Bahrain June 27-28 -> fresh Saudi/Qatari tanker strikes July 7 -> Trump 'finish the job'), even as verified relief landed (OFAC General License X, a 60-day Iranian-oil-export waiver ~$8-9B) and Hormuz volumes recovered to ~90% of pre-war baseline. Iran's $24B/$12B frozen-asset claim stays Mehr/parliamentary-sourced and US-denied -> excluded. Secondary: Russia's refinery/fuel crisis + deficit blowout (160% of the annual target, exile-press sourced); Ukraine's EU-accession progress + NATO 140bn-euro pledge vs the deadliest Kyiv strikes of the year; Venezuela's twin quake + constitutional-legality shock; certified-but-contested elections in Peru (Fujimori) and Colombia (de la Espriella); Bolivia's blockade crisis easing under a state of emergency; US inflation topping 4% and SCOTUS striking the birthright-citizenship order while domestic-terrorism sentences and ICE-detention deaths mount; China's rare-earth coercion + HK Article 23 expansion; India's near-final US trade deal vs a press-freedom slide; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk watch. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-18): news pull since the 2026-06-15 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; the US-Iran deal's $24B frozen-asset release / upfront tranche remains Iranian-state-media-sourced (Mehr) and US-rejected, treated as unverified regime framing - only the framework MoU + its June 19 Buergenstock signing are independently confirmed). Dominant mover: the US-Iran framework hardened toward its June 19 signing in Switzerland (MoU signed electronically by both sides June 17) but stays a non-final 60-day framework with terms disputed (US 'pay-for-performance'), the Strait of Hormuz still physically near-shut (~7 ships transited vs 550+ stranded; ~4-6 month export recovery), and Israeli ops in Lebanon continuing - so scores firm modestly along the resolution path without fully reversing. Secondary: a hawkish first FOMC under Chair Warsh, Ukraine's Fundamentals accession cluster opening (Luxembourg IGC June 15) + the G7 Evian summit, an HRW report on the US Minnesota deployment, Hungary's PM-term-limit amendment, Japan's BOJ hike to 1.0%, a terror attack on Niamey's airport, and Equatorial Guinea's full-cabinet resignation. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-15): news pull since the 2026-06-08 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; the US-Iran deal's detailed 14-point terms are Iranian-state-media-sourced and US-disputed, treated as unverified regime framing - only the framework agreement + scheduled June 19 signing are independently confirmed). Dominant mover: the US-Iran war swung from peak escalation (US strikes inside Iran, total Hormuz closure) to a framework peace deal announced June 14 with Brent falling ~$15-20 to ~$83; the strait remains physically shut pending implementation, so scores improve on the resolution path without fully reversing. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-03): news pull since the 2026-05-28 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; Iran's Hormuz-closure claims sourced to Tasnim are treated as regime intent, not verified action). A few late-May items not captured in the prior pass are flagged in-note. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV, World Bank, IDB, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem) + Bolivian official (INE, BCB) + Bolivian/Spanish-language press (read partly via Anglophone aggregators).

- A state-led economic model in crisis: a gas-export collapse, depleted reserves, a USD peg under severe strain, surging inflation, and a 2025 election that ended ~20 years of one-party rule amid deep crisis.

- Standout drags: a fiscal/currency/gas crisis, weak rule of law, and surging inflation; a possible reform reset and low homicide are offsets. Source-lean: MODERATE-HIGH Anglophone; Spanish primary press under-read.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A state-led model in acute crisis - a gas-export collapse, depleted reserves, a crumbling peg, and surging inflation. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -5.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Supply-chain and mining-transport disruption eases as blockades clear (~$2.76B in cumulative losses now stabilizing) (Rio Times - independent). Improved -8 -> -7; confidence held.

Monetary Independence - A USD peg under severe strain - a dollar shortage and a wide parallel-market gap, with deficits monetised - forced adjustment likely. (IMF; CEIC)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The boliviano has no international role. (definitional)

Inflation - Inflation near 14% (multi-decade high) plus blockade-driven food/fuel/medicine price spikes (Euronews). -6 -> -7.

Banking Stability - Dollar-shortage-stressed, with fragile deposit confidence and no FX backstop. (IMF; State Dept ICS)

Trade Actions Capacity - Collapsing gas exports (underinvestment), huge but barely-developed lithium reserves, and a mining/soy economy in crisis - the first GDP contraction in 40 years. (IMF; INE)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.68 │ 74% │

│ mid │ -5.35 │ 74% │

│ long │ -5.02 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A weak, politicised rule of law, with usable statistics and a pressured-but-free press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A low WJP standing, a politicised/elected judiciary, prior lawfare, and corruption. (WJP 2025; TI)

Statistical Integrity - Usable and publishing (the recession confirmed), with some politicisation. (INE; IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Weak and patronage-laden, hollowed by the fiscal crisis. (World Bank; IMF)

Press Freedom - Relatively free but pressured, with judicial harassment and state-advertising leverage. (RSF 2025/2026)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.45 │ 66% │

│ mid │ -3.45 │ 66% │

│ long │ -3.45 │ 66% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A model-collapse political crisis with a possible reform reset, against deep regional cleavages. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -5.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 78% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Worsened near -6 -> -7: President Paz fired economy minister Espinoza after a legislative censure on Aug 25 and named a deputy to replace him, amid unrest over IMF-linked market reforms (Reuters, corroborated by AP and TeleSUR). Losing the economy portfolio to a censure vote in the middle of a reform programme is coalition fragility at the exact point the programme needs continuity. Long held -4.

Civil Liberties - The June-8 states-of-emergency law that the June-18 pass flagged as UNUSED was invoked (90-day nationwide state of emergency restricting gatherings/blockades), so the repression risk it created is now partly realized, though courts ordered humanitarian corridors (Al Jazeera - independent; independent judiciary). Held at -4; confidence up on the risk being realized rather than latent.

Treatment Non Citizens - Limited; not a relocation destination, with thin infrastructure for migrants. (IOM)

Social Cohesion - Deep highland-indigenous-versus-lowland and party-versus-opposition cleavages, with high inequality. (World Bank)

Demographics - A young population and a favourable age structure - a relative positive. (INE; UN)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.98 │ 70% │

│ mid │ -3.50 │ 70% │

│ long │ -3.02 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A foreign-policy realignment in flux, with internal unrest. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Formerly a Russia/China/Venezuela-aligned bloc member; a 2025 election may shift it Western-ward - in flux. (AS/COA)

Conflict Involvement - No external war, with internal unrest/protest and a landlocked-dispute legacy. (ACLED)

Sanctions Capital Controls - FX/capital controls amid the dollar crisis; not sanctioned. (IMF; State Dept ICS)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.20 │ 67% │

│ mid │ -2.20 │ 67% │

│ long │ -2.20 │ 67% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Andean water stress and Amazon wildfires, against a relatively low homicide rate. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -5.0 │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Andean glacier loss (La Paz/El Alto water) plus Amazon/Chiquitano drought-fire, high vulnerability, low readiness. (ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Weak and uneven, with crisis-driven drug/import shortages. (WHO)

Infrastructure - Nationwide blockades cut supply lines to La Paz/El Alto, stranded ~5,000 vehicles, and depleted hospital oxygen (Euronews, NPR). -4 -> -5.

Crime Safety - Homicide low for the region (~3/100k) - a relative bright spot - but with rising trafficking violence and crisis-driven property crime. (police data; InSight Crime)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration against flood/wildfire/water exposure. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.15 │ 69% │

│ mid │ -4.37 │ 69% │

│ long │ -4.59 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -3.68 │ 69% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -4.17 │ 70% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -4.70 │ 71% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -4.02 │ -3.85 │ -3.68 │

│ Assets │ -4.34 │ -4.17 │ -4.0 │

│ Currency │ -4.70 │ -4.47 │ -4.23 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘