- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, Central Bank of Barbados, Freedom House, RSF, TI) + international and Barbadian press.

- A regional best-in-class on governance and macro management - a successful IMF EFF/RSF (reserves rebuilt to ~US$1.6bn, debt on a credible path from ~100% toward 60% by 2035), a republic since 2021, and PM Mottley a global climate-finance voice (the Bridgetown Initiative).

- Standout features: strong institutions and a successful adjustment, against a still-high debt load, an aging population, rising-from-a-low-base crime, and a narrow hurricane tail (Beryl, 2024).

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A successful IMF-program adjustment with low inflation and rebuilt reserves, on a high but falling debt load. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.50 │ +3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt near ~100% of GDP but on a credible, on-track path to 60% by FY2035/36, with a ~5%+ primary surplus and an institutionalized fiscal anchor. (IMF 2025; Barbados Today)

Monetary Independence - The BBD is pegged 2:1 to the USD - monetary policy serves the peg, now well-supported by reserves. (CBB; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The BBD is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and imported via the peg - averaged ~1.4% in 2024. (IMF 2025)

Banking Stability - Adequately capitalized, with reserves at ~US$1.6bn (>7 months' imports) firmly backing the peg; small-system concentration the main caveat. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Tourism- and business-services-led, low goods diversity, no resource curse and strong institutions, but narrow and external-demand-sensitive. (IMF; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.69 │ 85% │

│ mid │ +0.80 │ 85% │

│ long │ +0.91 │ 85% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Among the region's most capable institutions, with anti-corruption laws but no FOI legislation. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Strong common-law institutions and an independent judiciary, with new Integrity in Public Life (2023) and Prevention of Corruption (2021) Acts; the absence of FOI law is a drag. (Freedom House 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Credible, IMF-cited official data, strengthened under the EFF/RSF. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Among the region's most capable bureaucracies - it delivered a hard, successful fiscal adjustment. (IMF)

Press Freedom - Free, pluralistic press, generally respected, with small-market and libel-law constraints. (Freedom House; RSF)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.73 │ 76% │

│ mid │ +3.73 │ 76% │

│ long │ +3.73 │ 76% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable, high-trust democracy, against rising violent crime and an aging, emigrating population. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 75% │ 0.0 │ -1.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A stable, mature democracy - an orderly 2021 transition to a republic, peaceful elections, strong continuity under Mottley/BLP. (Freedom House; CARICOM)

Civil Liberties - Rated 'Free' with functioning courts; persisting LGBT+ discrimination and transparency gaps are the blemishes. (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - Generally lawful, with residency/welcome-stamp routes and no exit-ban or mass-deportation regime. (government; Freedom House)

Social Cohesion - High social trust and cohesion by regional standards, with rising violent crime (a record 50 murders in 2024) a real recent drag. (Freedom House; police data)

Demographics - Among the region's oldest populations, with low fertility and skilled emigration - a compounding long-term drag. (PRB; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.16 │ 76% │

│ mid │ +3.06 │ 76% │

│ long │ +2.96 │ 76% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A non-aligned CARICOM leader and global-South convener, conflict-free with market access restored. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A pragmatic, non-aligned CARICOM leader and global-South convener (the Bridgetown Initiative) with broad Western/multilateral ties. (Stimson; IMF)

Conflict Involvement - No conflict, territorial dispute, or war exposure - a long peaceful posture. (Freedom House)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Not sanctioned, market access restored (a 2025 eurobond); residual exchange controls supporting the peg are a structural friction. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.27 │ 81% │

│ mid │ +4.27 │ 81% │

│ long │ +4.27 │ 81% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong-for-region health and infrastructure, against a hurricane tail (Beryl, 2024) and rising crime. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -1.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - High-readiness but acutely water-scarce SIDS - coral/coast loss plus hurricanes, worse with SLR. (Germanwatch CRI; IPCC)

Healthcare - Strong by regional standards - an established universal public system (QEH) with good outcomes, under aging-cost pressure. (PAHO)

Infrastructure - Good - reliable power/water/telecom, a solid port and airport, with storm recovery the main stressor. (IDB)

Crime Safety - Historically safe but a record 50 murders in 2024 (~18/100k) marks a real deterioration off a low base. (police data)

Disaster Insurance - A functioning market plus sovereign CCRIF parametric cover; Beryl exposed gaps (uninsured fishing assets), but penetration is better than peers. (CCRIF; ECLAC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.18 │ 76% │

│ mid │ -0.31 │ 76% │

│ long │ -0.45 │ 76% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +2.46 │ 78% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +2.13 │ 80% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +1.90 │ 82% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +2.52 │ +2.49 │ +2.46 │

│ Assets │ +2.10 │ +2.13 │ +2.15 │

│ Currency │ +1.90 │ +1.96 │ +2.02 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘