- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, ADB, UNFPA, Freedom House, RSF, TI) + international press.

- A rare small-state governance success - Freedom House upgraded Bhutan to 'Free' in 2025 and it ranked 18th-cleanest on TI's CPI 2024 - but facing an existential emigration/demographic crisis and total India-dependence.

- Standout features: strong institutions, low corruption, carbon-negative hydropower, and the speculative $100bn Gelephu Mindfulness City, against below-replacement fertility, a youth exodus to Australia, India-dependence, and severe GLOF risk.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

Low inflation and concessional debt, against a tiny single-export, India-dependent base and thin reserves. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - High headline debt (~100%+) but mostly concessional/hydropower-project debt to India in INR with matched revenue; FX reserves thin at ~4.8 months. (IMF 2024 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - The ngultrum is pegged 1:1 to the Indian rupee (INR circulates freely) - imports Indian policy wholesale. (IMF; RMA)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The ngultrum is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and stable (~3-4%), tracking India's. (IMF)

Banking Stability - A small sector with improving balance sheets but low profitability, legacy NPLs, and heavy housing-loan concentration. (IMF 2024; ADB)

Trade Actions Capacity - A tiny, landlocked, single-export (hydropower) economy dependent on one partner (India), with temporary import restrictions used to defend reserves. (IMF; WTO)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.70 │ 73% │

│ mid │ -1.70 │ 73% │

│ long │ -1.70 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong-for-income rule of law and low corruption, on a small administration with a thin media market. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Strong for the region - CPI 2024 score 72 (18th globally), credible courts, and a low-corruption reputation. (TI CPI 2024; Freedom House 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Generally credible official data but limited capacity and coverage in a small administration. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Functional and relatively clean but small and capacity-constrained, with brain-drain pressure. (World Bank; ADB)

Press Freedom - An improving environment with self-censorship and a thin, financially fragile media market. (Freedom House 2025; RSF)

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.90 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +1.90 │ 60% │

│ long │ +1.90 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Stable democracy and improving liberties, against an existential emigration drain and a refugee legacy. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A stable constitutional monarchy/democracy - the Jan-2024 vote returned PM Tobgay/PDP with peaceful, credible transfers. (Al Jazeera 2024; Freedom House 2025)

Civil Liberties - Broadly respected and improving, the basis for the 2025 'Free' upgrade. (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - A strong current record, but the unresolved legacy of the early-1990s expulsion of ~100,000 Lhotshampa refugees and lingering minority discrimination. (Freedom House 2025; HRW historical)

Social Cohesion - A cohesive Buddhist-majority society under the GNH ethos, with the noted ethnic-minority caveat. (Freedom House; ORF)

Demographics - Below-replacement fertility (~1.5) plus a mass youth exodus to Australia - declared an 'existential' emigration crisis. (UNFPA; SCMP)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.57 │ 69% │

│ mid │ +1.57 │ 69% │

│ long │ +1.57 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A reliable but dependent India relationship, caught in the India-China border rivalry. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A reliable, treaty-bound India relationship (security + economy) that is also a dependency; no ties with China amid an unresolved border. (Freedom House 2025)

Conflict Involvement - No active conflict, but caught in the India-China border rivalry (Doklam-type friction) with no army of its own beyond Indian guarantees. (ORF)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Unsanctioned, but uses FX/import controls episodically to manage reserves. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.27 │ 68% │

│ mid │ +0.27 │ 68% │

│ long │ +0.27 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Very safe and carbon-negative, but acutely exposed to glacial-lake-outburst floods. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Carbon-negative but acute glacial-lake-outburst-flood and monsoon-landslide risk in a fragile Himalaya, low adaptive capacity. (IPCC AR6; WB)

Healthcare - A free public system with decent basic indicators but limited specialist capacity; serious cases referred to India. (World Bank)

Infrastructure - Improving (hydropower, roads) but constrained by terrain and remoteness; Gelephu City is the bet to leapfrog this. (World Bank; SCMP)

Crime Safety - Very low crime, one of the safest countries in the region. (observed)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible catastrophe-insurance penetration against high GLOF/seismic exposure. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.0 │ 64% │

│ mid │ -1.22 │ 64% │

│ long │ -1.43 │ 64% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.62 │ 66% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -0.22 │ 68% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -0.62 │ 69% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +0.69 │ +0.66 │ +0.62 │

│ Assets │ -0.20 │ -0.22 │ -0.24 │

│ Currency │ -0.62 │ -0.62 │ -0.62 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘