- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, UN/OCHA/MINUSCA, Freedom House, RSF, TI, HRW, Amnesty, Crisis Group, CSIS) + international press; state media EXCLUDED on governance.

- Data limitation: among the world's least-developed states (HDI near the global floor) with sparse, lagged official data, much of it donor-run; confidence is reduced accordingly.

- Standout drags: state security and gold/diamond extraction mortgaged to Russian Wagner/Africa Corps, an entrenched personalist regime (2023 term-limit removal, Touadera re-elected Dec 2025), active multi-front conflict, and near-total institutional absence outside Bangui. The CFA euro peg is the lone offset.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A peg-anchored but minimal-revenue, aid-dependent economy with extraction captured by Russian-linked operators. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 50% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 40% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 50% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - High risk of debt distress; an IMF ECF on track with a narrowing deficit, but a minimal, aid-dependent revenue base. (IMF Jun 2025)

Monetary Independence - The CEMAC CFA euro peg with a French convertibility guarantee imports stability; no own policy. (BEAC; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The CFA franc is regional, not a reserve currency; the 2022 Bitcoin/Sango legal-tender scheme collapsed. (Central Banking)

Inflation - Elevated but easing into 2025, with the CEMAC peg anchoring it relative to peers. (IMF Jun 2025)

Banking Stability - A tiny, shallow, cash-based sector within CEMAC with very low credit penetration. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Landlocked, single-corridor dependent (Douala via Cameroon), with gold/diamond/timber exports largely captured by Russian-linked operators. (CSIS; EITI)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.88 │ 54% │

│ mid │ -1.88 │ 54% │

│ long │ -1.88 │ 54% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Pervasive impunity, near-absent state outside Bangui, sparse data, and a re-criminalized press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 45% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Pervasive impunity, armed-group and Wagner-linked killings, and weak/absent state justice outside Bangui. (HRW WR2026; OHCHR)

Statistical Integrity - Sparse, lagged official data (the last poverty survey was 2021), with surveys largely donor-run. (World Bank)

Civil Service Capacity - Minimal reach beyond the capital - ~11% electricity access and only ~40% of health facilities operational. (WHO 2025; World Bank)

Press Freedom - RSF 'very serious' - a May 2025 re-criminalization of press offences and a pending 'foreign agents' bill. (RSF; HRW 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - The military is the decisive political arbiter behind a civilian facade. Some states in this band seized power outright within the last decade. Elected officials govern at the army's sufferance.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.11 │ 56% │

│ mid │ -6.11 │ 56% │

│ long │ -6.11 │ 56% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Open-ended personalist rule against a live insurgency and deep sectarian displacement. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -5.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 40% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 50% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Touadera consolidated via term-limit removal and Russian backing (re-elected Dec 2025), but CPC factions and Sudan spillover keep the insurgency live. (Crisis Group; UN SC)

Civil Liberties - Opposition rallies banned, MPs jailed despite immunity, and shrinking civic space. (Freedom House 2025; HRW)

Treatment Non Citizens - Hosts some refugees but foreign artisanal miners have been targeted in Wagner-linked killings, with weak protection. (Al Jazeera 2024)

Social Cohesion - An anti-Balaka/ex-Seleka sectarian legacy, inter-communal violence, and ~455k+ IDPs plus ~680k refugees. (UNHCR/OCHA 2025)

Demographics - Very young and fast-growing (a long-run asset), but undermined by health/education collapse. (UN/World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.78 │ 53% │

│ mid │ -4.61 │ 53% │

│ long │ -4.44 │ 53% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Regime survival mortgaged to Russia, with active multi-front conflict and Sudan spillover. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 55% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 65% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 50% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Externally dependent on Russia (Africa Corps) for regime survival, with eroding Western/UN (MINUSCA) presence. (Crisis Group)

Conflict Involvement - Active multi-front internal conflict plus cross-border incursions from Sudan, with peacekeepers attacked. (UN SC; Global R2P 2025)

Sanctions Capital Controls - A UN arms embargo eased, but Wagner-linked gold entities under US/EU sanctions, within CEMAC constraints. (US Treasury; UN)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.14 │ 56% │

│ mid │ -5.14 │ 56% │

│ long │ -5.14 │ 56% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A barely-functioning health system, near-absent infrastructure, and armed-group insecurity. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 68% │ -7.0 │ -7.50 │ -8.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 65% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 40% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Among the most vulnerable globally (ND-GAIN bottom-10) - conflict has collapsed adaptive capacity. (ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Barely functioning - ~40% of facilities operational, NGO/MSF-dependent, with among the world's worst outcomes. (WHO/MSF 2024-25)

Infrastructure - ~11% electricity access, dirt roads impassable in rains, and no real public transport. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - Armed-group ambushes, banditry, and mining-zone violence. (HRW; Al Jazeera 2024)

Disaster Insurance - A negligible private insurance market. (inference, low data)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -7.53 │ 57% │

│ mid │ -7.63 │ 57% │

│ long │ -7.74 │ 57% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -5.20 │ 55% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -4.31 │ 55% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -3.39 │ 54% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -5.27 │ -5.24 │ -5.20 │

│ Assets │ -4.32 │ -4.31 │ -4.31 │

│ Currency │ -3.39 │ -3.38 │ -3.37 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘