- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV, OECD, WJP, RSF, TI) + Swiss official (FSO/BFS, SNB, SECO, Federal Council) + Swiss press (NZZ, Le Temps, SRF).

- Watch-items: the post-Credit-Suisse UBS too-big-to-fail capital fight, and the 14-Jun-2026 SVP population-cap referendum that could threaten EU free movement.

- Source-lean: hard data from non-Anglophone Swiss primaries; real-time political color (referendum polling, UBS) leaned Anglophone.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A top-tier fiscal/monetary anchor with a safe-haven currency; banking concentration and a near-deflation undershoot the watch-items. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 72% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +5.0 │ +6.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt ~38% GDP with a constitutional debt brake and a 2024 surplus; AAA. (IMF Art IV 2025)

Monetary Independence - Own currency, a fully independent and highly credible SNB. (SNB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The franc is a premier global safe haven (small reserve share); persistent appreciation pressure. (IMF COFER; SNB)

Inflation - Near zero, flirting with deflation (~0.3-0.5% forecast); price stability strong, the undershoot the concern. (FSO; SNB)

Banking Stability - Sound but extreme concentration post-Credit-Suisse (UBS balance sheet ~2x GDP); a 2026 Federal Council push for full capital backing of foreign units is contested - too-big-to-fail unresolved. (admin.ch; finews)

Trade Actions Capacity - Pharma/precision/finance export strength with stable policy and no resource curse; a 2025 US tariff shock was cut to 15%, materially de-risking it. (SECO)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.92 │ 84% │

│ mid │ +6.07 │ 84% │

│ long │ +6.22 │ 84% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Among the world's strongest institutions - direct democracy, independent courts and statistics, strong press freedom. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 90% │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 88% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 82% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 82% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Global top tier (WJP ~94.6); direct democracy and an independent judiciary. (WJP 2025)

Statistical Integrity - The FSO is independent and fully standards-compliant. (FSO)

Civil Service Capacity - A high-capacity, rule-bound federalist administration; cantonal fragmentation a minor drag. (OECD)

Press Freedom - Strong (RSF ~89); watch-items on investigative-reporting restrictions and public-media funding. (RSF 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, backed by tested parliamentary oversight and a long unbroken record of apolitical command.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +7.89 │ 84% │

│ mid │ +7.89 │ 84% │

│ long │ +7.89 │ 84% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Exceptional stability and very strong rights; the immigration/EU free-movement debate the watch-item, and entry is hard for non-Europeans. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 88% │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 78% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 78% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 78% │ 0.0 │ -1.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A consensus 'magic formula' Federal Council and direct democracy - exceptionally stable. (Swiss Federal Chancellery)

Civil Liberties - A very strong rights baseline. (WJP)

Treatment Non Citizens - Very high quality of life, but hard for non-EU/EFTA (annual quotas/permits, slow naturalization ~10+ yrs); EU/EFTA enjoy free movement. (SEM; OECD)

Social Cohesion - High institutional trust and durable multilingual/cross-confessional cohesion. (FSO)

Demographics - Ageing, immigration-fed; a June-2026 '10-million' population-cap referendum (polling near-even) threatens EU free movement - a key watch-item. (FSO; SRG)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.86 │ 82% │

│ mid │ +5.76 │ 82% │

│ long │ +5.67 │ 82% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable armed-neutral state with very low conflict exposure and an open wealth hub. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 78% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 82% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Armed neutrality, non-NATO/non-EU but predictable and stable; an active neutrality-vs-sanctions debate. (FDFA)

Conflict Involvement - No direct conflict, very low exposure. (observed)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Adopted EU Russia sanctions, a fully open capital account, a global wealth hub. (SECO)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.71 │ 81% │

│ mid │ +5.71 │ 81% │

│ long │ +5.71 │ 81% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

World-class infrastructure, healthcare, and safety; the long-run drag is Alpine climate change, and healthcare is expensive. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ -1.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 88% │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │ +9.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 80% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - The wealthiest adapter but with acute Alpine glacier collapse, rockfall, snow loss, and river-flood; long down despite top readiness. (ND-GAIN; IPCC AR6 mountains)

Healthcare - Excellent universal outcomes and access, but among the world's most expensive. (OECD; FOPH)

Infrastructure - World-class rail/road/utility reliability. (OECD; FSO)

Crime Safety - Very low violent crime - a clear strength. (FSO/FEDPOL)

Disaster Insurance - Strong cantonal building-insurance systems and well-managed Alpine natural-hazard mapping. (FOEN)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +6.08 │ 82% │

│ mid │ +5.91 │ 82% │

│ long │ +5.73 │ 82% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +6.55 │ 83% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +6.43 │ 83% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +6.28 │ 84% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +6.61 │ +6.58 │ +6.55 │

│ Assets │ +6.39 │ +6.43 │ +6.46 │

│ Currency │ +6.28 │ +6.37 │ +6.45 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘