- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV, OECD, World Bank, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem) + Chilean official (INE, Banco Central de Chile) + Chilean/Spanish-language press.

- Politics: two failed constitutional rewrites (2022/2023) ended the reform cycle; the Dec-2025 runoff produced an orderly transfer to a security-focused right-wing government; institutions intact.

- Standout drags: rising organized crime, a seismic/megadrought climate tail, and a steep long-term demographic decline. Source-lean: moderate Anglophone; Spanish-language press under-read.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

Prudent macro management (a structural-balance rule, a highly credible central bank) and copper/lithium strength. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 88% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 83% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 82% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Low/sustainable debt under a structural-balance rule plus sovereign funds; broadly balanced target by 2027; sovereign-fund depletion the watch-item. (IMF Art IV)

Monetary Independence - The Banco Central de Chile is among the region's most credible inflation-targeters, with a flexible FX. (BCCh; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The peso is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Converged to ~2.4%, around the 3% target. (BCCh; INE)

Banking Stability - Sound, well-capitalised, withstands severe stress; diminished financial depth noted. (IMF FSSA; BCCh)

Trade Actions Capacity - World #1 copper and huge lithium reserves; a 2025 national lithium strategy is more state-centric (may deter some FDI); China-concentration and paradox-of-plenty risk mitigated by strong institutions. (USGS; NRGI)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.21 │ 87% │

│ mid │ +3.21 │ 87% │

│ long │ +3.21 │ 87% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong by regional standards (independent courts, low corruption, credible statistics), with a multi-year decline trend and press concentration. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 82% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 78% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Strong regionally, independent courts, low corruption (TI CPI ~63), but a multi-year 'decliner' from its peak. (TI 2025; WJP 2025)

Statistical Integrity - INE/BCCh are credible and independently cited. (IMF; INE)

Civil Service Capacity - Professional and meritocratic, with strong fiscal/monetary/electoral administration. (IMF; WJP)

Press Freedom - Free but RSF ~#69 (a sharp 2025 setback) with a heavy media-ownership duopoly. (RSF 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.06 │ 78% │

│ mid │ +4.06 │ 78% │

│ long │ +4.06 │ 78% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Resilient institutions and an orderly transfer, against rising organized crime and a steep long-term demographic decline. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 82% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 80% │ -1.0 │ -0.50 │ 0.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 85% │ 0.0 │ -1.50 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Held at 3 with confidence up: Congress approved the core of Kast's economic overhaul July 22 (corporate rate 27% -> 23% phased, capital-repatriation incentives, permitting-compensation mechanism) - major legislation passing amid weak growth (Q1 GDP -0.5%, unemployment 9.4%) - and a deputy finance minister who failed a routine drug test was replaced within a day (UPI/AP, Bloomberg - wire). Governability functioning normally.

Civil Liberties - HELD at 4: protesters clashed with police in Santiago on Sept 4 over President Kast's security-reform package, with tear gas and water cannon used and demonstrators invoking Pinochet-era comparisons (France 24). The clash is verified but the contents of the reform package are not yet documented, and a single public-order confrontation in a consolidated democracy is not by itself a civil-liberties move. Carried forward: read the package text next cycle and score the powers it actually creates.

Treatment Non Citizens - Lawful residency exists but is visibly tightening after a large 2021-24 migration wave (a 2024 reform, longer naturalization, stricter asylum). (MPI; OECD)

Social Cohesion - A 2019-unrest legacy, high inequality, and rising organized crime (Tren de Aragua), with record kidnappings. (InSight Crime)

Demographics - TFR ~1.1 (region's lowest); population peaks ~2035 then declines - a real long-term drag. (INE; UN)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.82 │ 82% │

│ mid │ +1.74 │ 82% │

│ long │ +1.66 │ 82% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable, pragmatic US-aligned partner with no external conflict and an open capital account. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 82% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 83% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A stable, pragmatic, close US ally and Pacific Alliance core, balancing China dependence. (State Dept)

Conflict Involvement - No external conflict; internal Mapuche/Araucania tension under a repeated state of emergency. (MercoPress)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open capital account, no controls, unsanctioned. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.64 │ 83% │

│ mid │ +4.64 │ 83% │

│ long │ +4.64 │ 83% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Best-in-region infrastructure and a seismic-aware insurance market, against a seismic/megadrought/wildfire tail and rising crime. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ -0.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 78% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - High readiness but a mega-drought plus water stress plus coastal exposure - near-neutral, slightly worse long. (WB CCDR)

Healthcare - Mixed Fonasa/Isapre with decent access/outcomes; Isapre solvency strain. (PAHO; IMF)

Infrastructure - Best-in-region ports, telecom, electrification, and roads. (trade.gov)

Crime Safety - Homicide ~6/100k (low globally but up), with an organized-crime/kidnapping surge the new concern. (InSight Crime)

Disaster Insurance - A seismic-aware market with decent earthquake penetration and mandatory mortgage cover. (market context)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.43 │ 77% │

│ mid │ +1.33 │ 77% │

│ long │ +1.24 │ 77% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +2.82 │ 81% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +3.31 │ 83% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +3.51 │ 84% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +2.89 │ +2.86 │ +2.82 │

│ Assets │ +3.32 │ +3.31 │ +3.29 │

│ Currency │ +3.51 │ +3.51 │ +3.50 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘