- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-25): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-14 -> 08-25 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central; WebSearch budget exhausted mid-pass, central verification via self-hosted SearXNG + targeted fetches), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war entered an economic-strangulation phase even as exit diplomacy advanced. The US launched the global secondary-sanctions campaign 'Operation Economic Outcast' (Aug 24, 60+ designations, all-sector scope); Iran's crude exports effectively halted (Kharg Island berths empty since July 31, satellite-verified; China-bound imports ~823k -> ~534k bpd); the rial crossed 2 million per dollar; Iran fired its first ballistic missiles toward the UAE (Aug 18) and the UAE, Iran's second-largest trade partner, cut ALL trade indefinitely (Aug 19). Yet no US strike on Iranian soil was confirmed in-window and Iran-Oman Hormuz-corridor talks reached joint-statement drafting in Tehran (Aug 25). A global long-bond rout (Aug 18) set multi-decade records (UK 50Y 5.392%; JGB 10Y highest since 1996); the US Treasury doubled long-end buybacks (Aug 19), the Fed-independence fight reopened (Cook removal deadline Aug 26), and DXY hit a 3-month low with gold at a 3-month high. US-Canada trade talks collapsed (Aug 21), first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect (Aug 22), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation (eff. Sept 8). Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Russia's Black Sea grain export capacity offline and Russian inflation crossed 10%. DRC Ebola deaths reached 2,642 (PHEIC reaffirmed) while Geneva produced an M23 peace-talks roadmap. Pakistan's KP floods killed 368 in five days and Islamabad defied a Supreme Court order on Imran Khan. Venezuela freed 131 political prisoners. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the Sept-2025 Libya 'Sorman/Zawiya clashes' recirculation, Ghana's pre-window IMF completion run as fresh, Cuba's pre-window Aug 2-3 blackout, and a third clean Thailand-Cambodia verification (ceasefire holds, ASEAN observers verifying). CORRECTION: Serbia's June 27-30 Vucic resignation-pledge arc, missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since 05-28, is booked late as a note. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-20): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-14 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran war DEEPENED rather than broke pattern - the US naval blockade of Iranian ports held all window, OFAC's wind-down GL X1 EXPIRED July 17 (full Iran oil sanctions restored), the US combat death toll rose to 17 (430+ wounded) after Iran hit Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti air base July 17, and the US ran a ninth consecutive night of strikes (incl. the Darkhovin nuclear-plant site, IAEA reviewing). Iran's retaliation crossed a threshold: it struck Kuwait's power + desalination plant twice (first civilian-infrastructure targeting) and Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields (-140-150k bpd), and on July 20 the Houthis opened a new front with a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia (ending the 2022 truce). Brent ran to ~$88-90; Hormuz war-risk hull premiums held at 3-10% of value. Secondary: the EU FROZE the $44.10 Russia oil cap for one week to July 23 (the prior pass's lapse risk did NOT materialize - held, not scored as relief) with the 21st sanctions package still stalled (a narrow Kyiv-strike mini-package adopted July 17 instead); Russia's MOEX hit a 17-week losing streak (worst since 1997), the deficit overshot plan by ~1T rubles and the ruble slid ~8%/mo to ~78.6; Ukraine's Kerch Strait / Don-Azov shipping halt PERSISTED with no reopening as Russia hit Kyiv with a 41-missile barrage July 19; the Poland-Ukraine White Eagle rift DE-ESCALATED (Zelensky opened SBU archives July 17, Tusk welcomed it); Andy Burnham became UK PM July 20 (7th in a decade but a clean handover, dropped digital ID); Israel's Knesset dissolved on schedule July 17 (Oct 27 elections) after a judicial-oversight/media legislative blitz; China's Q2 GDP printed 4.3% (weakest since 2022); India's rupee broke past its defense band to ~96.4; deadly monsoon flooding hit Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal; Nicaragua's Ortega declared no more elections; Cuba logged its 5th total grid collapse of 2026; Venezuela's quake toll passed 5,200; DRC's Ebola became the fastest-growing month-on-month; Mali's JNIM/FLA reversed the Anefis gain; Morocco released journalist Ali Lmrabet; a M7.4 quake struck the Mexico-Guatemala border. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-07): news pull since the 2026-06-18 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire proved repeatedly reversible (remote MoU June 17 + 60-day Burgenstock roadmap June 21, then a Kiku-tanker strike -> US strikes on 5 Iranian sites -> Iranian retaliation on US bases in Kuwait/Bahrain June 27-28 -> fresh Saudi/Qatari tanker strikes July 7 -> Trump 'finish the job'), even as verified relief landed (OFAC General License X, a 60-day Iranian-oil-export waiver ~$8-9B) and Hormuz volumes recovered to ~90% of pre-war baseline. Iran's $24B/$12B frozen-asset claim stays Mehr/parliamentary-sourced and US-denied -> excluded. Secondary: Russia's refinery/fuel crisis + deficit blowout (160% of the annual target, exile-press sourced); Ukraine's EU-accession progress + NATO 140bn-euro pledge vs the deadliest Kyiv strikes of the year; Venezuela's twin quake + constitutional-legality shock; certified-but-contested elections in Peru (Fujimori) and Colombia (de la Espriella); Bolivia's blockade crisis easing under a state of emergency; US inflation topping 4% and SCOTUS striking the birthright-citizenship order while domestic-terrorism sentences and ICE-detention deaths mount; China's rare-earth coercion + HK Article 23 expansion; India's near-final US trade deal vs a press-freedom slide; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk watch. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-03): news pull since the 2026-05-28 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; Iran's Hormuz-closure claims sourced to Tasnim are treated as regime intent, not verified action). A few late-May items not captured in the prior pass are flagged in-note. Notes mark what moved.

- 2nd pass (2026-05-28, bias-corrected): partner customs (EU/Eurostat, Japan, Korea), diaspora Mandarin (Initium 端傳媒), and Rhodium confirm. Manufacturing strength is real but increasingly a DEPENDENCY (2025 surplus ~57-68% of all growth; ASEAN transshipment escape-valve closing); deflation now 10+ quarters. Trade long and inflation nudged worse; net confirmed, not overturned.

- Live-data refresh (2026-05-28): factors re-validated against diverse, independent sources (multilateral bodies + non-US/non-Anglophone press; state-self-reported data still excluded). Notes mark what moved.

- v2.0 source-discipline re-run applied. CCP self-reported data (official GDP/CPI, local-government debt, 'stability' framing) EXCLUDED under the hard exclusion rule; economic and near-term-stability factors rebuilt from independent proxies (partner-country customs data, port/freight traffic, electricity, BIS/IIF debt tracking, foreign-firm earnings, independent growth estimates ~2-3% vs official ~5%). Confidence on those factors lowered accordingly.

- Trade/industrial capacity re-weighted 0.05 -> 0.17 and scored on INDEPENDENTLY-observable manufacturing dominance (partner customs, port traffic, foreign supply chains). This is a real, externally verifiable strength and lifts the economic score even after CCP-data exclusion.

- Slant-balance audit: the prior input set leaned anti-subject on China's strengths (low-confidence CCP) while its negatives were high-confidence independent. Corrected by crediting independently-verified manufacturing capacity AND discounting regime-framed near-term 'stability' positives (political_stability and social_cohesion near-term trimmed, confidence lowered).

- NEGATIVE-SKEW case: demographic collapse largely locked in; authoritarian trajectory intensifying; no positive-skew pathway.

- Scored on observable ACTIONS and independent DATA over regime stated intentions; the optional strict-foundational-weighting variant was NOT applied.

- Recalibrated 2026-05-29 for the 2026 Iran war (Operation Epic Fury, US+Israel vs Iran from 28 Feb) and the Strait of Hormuz closure: blockade of ~1/5 of world oil+LNG, attacks/threats on Gulf desalination (water security), and the global energy shock. The two-week 8 Apr ceasefire collapsed by late May - the US renewed strikes on Iran ~25-26 May (Trump convened Camp David) and the war resumed, with Hormuz still blockaded. (Reuters; BBC; NYT; CNN; ISW; Al Jazeera; CSIS; Wikipedia)

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

Rebuilt under the exclusion rule: CCP official growth/CPI/local-debt figures treated as unusable; factors reconstructed from independent proxies, lowering confidence. Independently-verified manufacturing dominance (now weighted 0.17) is the genuine offset to debt, deflation, captured monetary policy, and property-sector stress. Long-term leans more negative as decoupling and demographics bite. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 66% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.50 │ +3.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 58% │ -7.0 │ -5.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 50% │ -2.0 │ -2.50 │ -3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 78% │ +2.0 │ +1.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Held at near -5: the July 30 Politburo pledged to 'accelerate the pace of fiscal spending' and roll out 'incremental measures in a timely manner' but announced NO fresh stimulus package, after Q2 growth of 4.3% (state figure, direction only) - the slowest in 3+ years and below the 4.5-5.0% target floor (Bloomberg, SCMP - wire/Beijing-adjacent). Confirmed sub-target growth met with a hesitant policy response: held with the trajectory noted.

Monetary Independence - PBoC is an arm of the Party-state; policy coordination but no institutional check. Structural and externally observable; managing deflation, which is worse than mild inflation in a debt-heavy economy.

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - RMB is the rising dollar-alternative (CIPS, swap lines, trade settlement) - observable via partner-country and BIS data - but capital controls structurally cap true reserve status.

Inflation - Large Gulf importer hit by the ~June 1 oil spike, but a coal-heavy mix, domestic crude, and possible preferential strait access cushion it vs India/Japan/Korea (CNBC). Near -6 -> -7.

Banking Stability - Held at near -2: the ~CNY2T of 2026 local-government bond issuance (roughly half refinancing hidden LGFV debt, inside the RMB800B/yr swap program through 2028) is administrative-registry data, less fabrication-prone than GDP but still state-sourced; foreign analysts (UBS/BofA via SCMP) project NIM stabilization (~+3bp q/q) over six years of decline - commentary on state-bank self-reported earnings, capped confidence. H1 results season opened Aug 14 at window edge. Long held -3.

Trade Actions Capacity - HELD near 2: China's customs reported August exports +25% YoY (AP, Sept 8), used DIRECTION ONLY under the hard exclusion rule. Imports missed estimates (CNBC), signalling weak domestic demand. Japan MOF August data published Sept 16 shows Japan exports +19.3% YoY with imports rising sharply (Reuters), partially cross-checking external demand but not yet a full bilateral China mirror. Korea/Taiwan August customs still pending. Confidence 0.75 -> 0.78.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.19 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -2.13 │ 59% │

│ long │ -2.08 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Very weak institutions on the factors weighted most heavily here: no independent judiciary (rule by law, not rule of law), comprehensive censorship, and official statistics unusable for scoring. Built almost entirely from independent sources (V-Dem, WJP, RSF), so confidence is real. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 75% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ -0.50 │ -2.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Hong Kong's LegCo advanced Article 23 subsidiary legislation empowering the Chief Executive to unilaterally certify any criminal act as a national-security offense, following a March amendment compelling cellphone-password disclosure (JURIST - independent). Further NSL power concentration; held at -7; confidence held.

Statistical Integrity - Official statistics unusable (official ~5% vs independent-estimate 2-3% growth); data managed for politics; youth-unemployment series suspended when inconvenient. This finding is the basis for the exclusion rule applied across the economic category.

Civil Service Capacity - Genuine technocratic execution capacity, but the claim is partly regime self-presentation, so confidence is lowered; increasingly politicized (loyalty over competence, anti-corruption as control, military purges).

Press Freedom - Among the most restrictive globally; comprehensive censorship; no independent media; journalist surveillance/detention.

Civil-Military Relations - A party-army by constitutional design, now compounded by the deepest purge of the high command in decades. Nearly all of the roughly 30 generals and admirals who ran the major departments and theater commands at the start of 2023 have been expelled, investigated, or have disappeared from public view. One sitting general remains on the Central Military Commission. The top five Rocket Force generals were removed. CMC Vice Chairman Zhang Youxia was placed under investigation on 2026-01-24 and officially accused of trampling the CMC chairman responsibility system. Wall Street Journal reporting added an accusation that he leaked nuclear-programme information to the United States. Unverified coup reports circulated in the same window. They are not scored here. They trace to outlets that also circulated doctored footage. The scored finding is narrower and firmer: the most consequential institution in the country has no stable, rule-bound process for selecting or removing its leadership. Confidence is held at 0.6 by the opacity of the source environment. The record of removals itself is well documented.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.50 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -5.81 │ 59% │

│ long │ -6.12 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Near-term authoritarian 'stability' (suppressed instability) over catastrophic demographics and bottom-tier civil liberties. Regime-framed stability positives trimmed and confidence lowered under the slant audit. Long-term composite materially worse. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ -1.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 75% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +0.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -7.50 │ -9.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Trimmed from +2: near-term control is real but the degree of stability is partly regime self-presentation (independently hard to verify). Long-term succession risk (no Xi successor, term limits removed) and authoritarian brittleness.

Civil Liberties - Comprehensive surveillance state, social credit, restrictions on speech/assembly/religion (Uyghur persecution), movement; no recourse against the state.

Treatment Non Citizens - Structurally closed to immigration; PR extremely rare; no practical citizenship path; ethnonationalist turn; exit-ban risk; rising nationalism.

Social Cohesion - Trimmed from +3: low violent crime and surveillance-enforced order are real, but the 'social harmony' framing is partly regime narrative; underlying tensions (ethnic, urban-rural, youth 'lying flat', high youth unemployment).

Demographics - The demographic contraction is now showing in physical capacity: China shuttered ~30,000 preschools and primary schools in a single year as falling birth cohorts cut enrollment (Nikkei Asia - independent, Japanese lens). A realized, compounding structural signal consistent with the long-horizon score: held near -6 / long -9; confidence held.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.48 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -4.42 │ 58% │

│ long │ -5.36 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Few genuine allies; surrounded by wary neighbors; capital controls are a present baseline reality for asset holders, not a tail risk. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 62% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -4.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Improved -1 -> 0: Xi Jinping made his first Cairo visit in a decade on Sept 2/3, signing roughly 25 agreements with Egypt and using the trip to propose a new Middle East security framework (Al Jazeera, Africanews). Expanding into a region where the US is actively at war, with a US security partner, is a measurable widening of China's partner set rather than rhetoric. Held to one step because pledges are not disbursements and the framework proposal has no signatories. Confidence 0.6 -> 0.62.

Conflict Involvement - Held at near -4: PLA pressure is SUBSTITUTING tools, not receding - July ADIZ incursions (190) ran under half 2024-25 monthly levels and H1 sorties halved y/y to 1,334 with no large island-encirclement drills, a first since 2022 (SCMP - mainland-adjacent tilt; direction corroborated by AEI and Taipei Times, opposite-tilt sources), WHILE the Type 076 Sichuan demonstrated catapult ops, a joint air-naval group with H-6Ks surged Scarborough Shoal Aug 1 (Philippines-directed), a PRC research vessel loitered cross-strait cables, Japan test-fired Tomahawks (July 29) and named PRC coercion its 'greatest strategic challenge,' and Taiwan's Supreme Court designated the CCP 'foreign hostile forces.' Do not read the sortie decline as improvement; the substitution pattern is the datum. Long held -5.

Sanctions Capital Controls - Comprehensive capital controls already in place; restricted capital exit; decoupling/secondary-sanction/Taiwan-scenario freeze risk; a baseline reality, not a tail risk.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.65 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -2.82 │ 60% │

│ long │ -3.0 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Genuine, externally observable strengths in infrastructure and (surveillance-derived) street safety; healthcare mixed and aging-strained; the safety positive carries a civil-liberties cost counted elsewhere. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.50 │ -4.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 65% │ 0.0 │ -1.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Huge exposure (northern water scarcity, coastal-megacity/delta flooding, heat) offset by top-tier adaptive capacity. (IPCC AR6; WB CCDR)

Healthcare - Excellent urban facilities, weaker rural; coverage with gaps and out-of-pocket costs; severe aging strain ahead.

Infrastructure - Arguably the world's best new infrastructure: HSR, airports, ports, telecom, smart-city, renewables. Externally observable strength.

Crime Safety - Very low violent crime, strong street safety (a surveillance-state artifact); a real quality-of-life positive setting aside the civil-liberties cost.

Disaster Insurance - Quake/flood exposure; high state response capacity; developing insurance markets.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.50 │ 60% │

│ mid │ +1.10 │ 60% │

│ long │ +0.70 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -4.09 │ 59% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -3.05 │ 59% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -2.99 │ 59% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -3.19 │ -3.64 │ -4.09 │

│ Assets │ -2.84 │ -3.05 │ -3.27 │

│ Currency │ -2.99 │ -3.09 │ -3.19 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘