CΓ΄te d'Ivoire (CIV)
Country Risk Assessment v2.3 - assessed 2026-05-28 - skew: symmetric
Flags
- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV/EFF, World Bank, AfDB, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem) + Ivorian/French-language and international press (France 24, ICG).
- A fast-growing West African anchor with a live political-succession tail (a contested 2025 election with leading rivals barred) and cocoa-concentration risk; the CFA franc is pegged to the euro.
- Standout features: strong growth, low peg-anchored inflation, and good regional infrastructure, against an electoral/succession tail, north-south cleavages, and cocoa dependence. Source-lean: good Franco/Anglophone balance.
- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.
Transparency & confidence ceiling
Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).
Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.
Economic
Strong growth and low peg-anchored inflation, with cocoa concentration the main risk. (skew: positive)
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ
β Sub-factor β Weight β Conf β Near β Mid β Long β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββ€
β Fiscal State β 0.22 β 85% β +1.0 β +2.0 β +3.0 β
β Monetary Independence β 0.22 β 85% β +2.0 β +2.0 β +2.0 β
β Reserve Currency Intl Monetary β 0.16 β 95% β 0.0 β 0.0 β 0.0 β
β Inflation β 0.13 β 85% β +4.0 β +4.0 β +4.0 β
β Banking Stability β 0.10 β 70% β +2.0 β +2.0 β +2.0 β
β Trade Actions Capacity β 0.17 β 80% β +3.0 β +3.0 β +3.0 β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ
Fiscal State - Moderate debt risk with ~6% growth and the deficit converging to the regional ceiling, meeting all IMF program criteria. (IMF Dec-2025)
Monetary Independence - The CFA-franc euro peg delivers stability and credibility but zero autonomy, under a France-guaranteed, regionally-pooled regime. (BCEAO/IMF)
Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The CFA franc is not a reserve currency. (definitional)
Inflation - Low and peg-anchored (~2-3%) - a structural strength. (IMF)
Banking Stability - Sound, with the capital serving as the regional banking hub. (IMF)
Trade Actions Capacity - The world's #1 cocoa producer plus a new oil/gas ramp and agri-processing/services diversification; cocoa price/weather concentration partly offset. (USDA; Bloomberg)
Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):
βββββββββββ¬ββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββββββ
β Horizon β Composite score β Confidence β
βββββββββββΌββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββββββ€
β near β +1.89 β 74% β
β mid β +2.11 β 74% β
β long β +2.33 β 74% β
βββββββββββ΄ββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββββββ
Institutional
Improving from a civil-war legacy but still weak, with a pressured press. (skew: negative)
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ
β Sub-factor β Weight β Conf β Near β Mid β Long β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββ€
β Rule Of Law β 0.31 β 75% β -1.0 β -1.0 β -1.0 β
β Statistical Integrity β 0.22 β 70% β +2.0 β +2.0 β +2.0 β
β Civil Service Capacity β 0.22 β 60% β +1.0 β +1.0 β +1.0 β
β Press Freedom β 0.13 β 80% β -2.0 β -2.0 β -2.0 β
β Civil-Military Relations β 0.12 β 55% β -5.0 β -5.0 β -5.0 β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ
Rule Of Law - Improving from the civil-war legacy but weak, with contested courts and persistent corruption. (TI; WJP)
Statistical Integrity - Usable and IMF-engaged through program reviews. (IMF)
Civil Service Capacity - Improving, with mixed delivery. (World Bank/IMF)
Press Freedom - A declining RSF standing amid a Francophone-Africa-wide trend and election-period pressure. (RSF)
Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.
Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):
βββββββββββ¬ββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββββββ
β Horizon β Composite score β Confidence β
βββββββββββΌββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββββββ€
β near β -0.47 β 68% β
β mid β -0.47 β 68% β
β long β -0.47 β 68% β
βββββββββββ΄ββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββββββ
Political & Social
Stable but succession-fragile, with north-south and reconciliation cleavages. (skew: negative)
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬ββββββββ¬βββββββ
β Sub-factor β Weight β Conf β Near β Mid β Long β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌββββββββΌβββββββ€
β Political Stability β 0.30 β 80% β -3.0 β -2.0 β -1.0 β
β Civil Liberties β 0.20 β 75% β -2.0 β -2.0 β -2.0 β
β Treatment Non Citizens β 0.25 β 60% β -1.0 β -1.0 β -1.0 β
β Social Cohesion β 0.15 β 65% β -3.0 β -3.0 β -3.0 β
β Demographics β 0.10 β 75% β +2.0 β +1.50 β +1.0 β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄ββββββββ΄βββββββ
Political Stability - A contested 2025 election with leading rivals barred and dozens killed in election violence revived civil-war fears - stable but succession-fragile. (Al Jazeera; ReliefWeb; Freedom House)
Civil Liberties - Eroded in 2025, with a crackdown on protest and expression. (Freedom House)
Treatment Non Citizens - A large cocoa migrant-worker population, but the historical 'Ivoirite' nationality cleavage is a recurring tail. (Freedom House)
Social Cohesion - North-south/ethnic and unfinished post-civil-war reconciliation cleavages. (ICG)
Demographics - Very young and fast-growing - a dividend with a jobs strain. (UN)
Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):
βββββββββββ¬ββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββββββ
β Horizon β Composite score β Confidence β
βββββββββββΌββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββββββ€
β near β -1.82 β 70% β
β mid β -1.55 β 70% β
β long β -1.28 β 70% β
βββββββββββ΄ββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββββββ
Geopolitical
A stable Western-aligned ECOWAS pillar, against Sahel-spillover and the election tail. (skew: symmetric)
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ
β Sub-factor β Weight β Conf β Near β Mid β Long β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββ€
β Alliance Reliability β 0.40 β 80% β +3.0 β +3.0 β +3.0 β
β Conflict Involvement β 0.35 β 75% β -2.0 β -2.0 β -2.0 β
β Sanctions Capital Controls β 0.25 β 70% β +2.0 β +2.0 β +2.0 β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ
Alliance Reliability - A stable Francophone-Western/US-aligned ECOWAS pillar against the Sahel juntas. (observed)
Conflict Involvement - No active war, but the first deadly jihadist border attack since 2021 plus the election tail. (France 24; ICG)
Sanctions Capital Controls - An open WAEMU/CFA regime, unsanctioned. (IMF)
Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):
βββββββββββ¬ββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββββββ
β Horizon β Composite score β Confidence β
βββββββββββΌββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββββββ€
β near β +0.98 β 74% β
β mid β +0.98 β 74% β
β long β +0.98 β 74% β
βββββββββββ΄ββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββββββ
Physical & Practical
Relatively good regional infrastructure, against coastal-erosion/flood and weak healthcare. (skew: negative)
ββββββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬ββββββββ¬βββββββ
β Sub-factor β Weight β Conf β Near β Mid β Long β
ββββββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌββββββββΌβββββββ€
β Climate β 0.20 β 64% β -4.0 β -4.50 β -5.0 β
β Healthcare β 0.30 β 60% β -1.0 β -1.0 β -1.0 β
β Infrastructure β 0.20 β 65% β +2.0 β +2.0 β +2.0 β
β Crime Safety β 0.15 β 60% β 0.0 β 0.0 β 0.0 β
β Disaster Insurance β 0.15 β 55% β -2.0 β -2.0 β -2.0 β
ββββββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄ββββββββ΄βββββββ
Climate - Coastal erosion/flood on a low shore, with relatively stronger economy/readiness for the region. (ND-GAIN; WB)
Healthcare - A universal-health scheme expanding but weak and underfunded. (World Bank)
Infrastructure - Relatively good and improving regionally - the capital's transport, the port, roads, and power. (AfDB; World Bank)
Crime Safety - Moderate. (observed)
Disaster Insurance - Low penetration against flood exposure. (observed)
Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):
βββββββββββ¬ββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββββββ
β Horizon β Composite score β Confidence β
βββββββββββΌββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββββββ€
β near β -0.98 β 61% β
β mid β -1.08 β 61% β
β long β -1.19 β 61% β
βββββββββββ΄ββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββββββ
Decisions
Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).
ββββββββββββ¬ββββββββββ¬ββββββββ¬βββββββββββββ¬ββββββββββ
β Decision β Horizon β Score β Confidence β Reading β
ββββββββββββΌββββββββββΌββββββββΌβββββββββββββΌββββββββββ€
β Living β long β -0.28 β 69% β mixed β
β Assets β mid β +0.68 β 71% β mixed β
β Currency β near β +1.13 β 73% β mixed β
ββββββββββββ΄ββββββββββ΄ββββββββ΄βββββββββββββ΄ββββββββββ
Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):
ββββββββββββ¬ββββββββ¬ββββββββ¬ββββββββ
β Decision β Near β Mid β Long β
ββββββββββββΌββββββββΌββββββββΌββββββββ€
β Living β -0.49 β -0.38 β -0.28 β
β Assets β +0.57 β +0.68 β +0.79 β
β Currency β +1.13 β +1.28 β +1.43 β
ββββββββββββ΄ββββββββ΄ββββββββ΄ββββββββ