- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics rebuilt from independent sources (IMF, World Bank, V-Dem, RSF, Freedom House, HRW, Amnesty, ICG, ACLED) + international press; Cameroonian state media EXCLUDED there, with economics IMF-validated.

- A leader in power since 1982 (re-elected at ~92 to an 8th term in a disputed Oct 2025 vote) sits atop an acute, unresolved succession risk amid a two-front war: the Anglophone separatist conflict in the west and Boko Haram/ISWAP in the Far North.

- Standout drags: a near-record presidential tenure with a succession fat-tail, two active internal conflicts, weak rule of law, and a crushed press; the CFA-franc euro peg and oil/cocoa diversification are the offsets.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A peg-anchored low-inflation, diversified-for-the-region economy, against weak fiscal capacity and a declining oil base. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Modest growth on an IMF program, with declining oil revenue, weak domestic revenue, and conflict costs. (IMF reviews 2025-26)

Monetary Independence - No own policy, but the CEMAC CFA franc's hard euro peg (with a French convertibility guarantee) delivers stability - a positive in a fragile region. (BEAC; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The CFA franc is regional, not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and peg-anchored, easing toward the CEMAC ~3% norm. (IMF)

Banking Stability - The regional CEMAC banking system, supervised by COBAC - sound-ish, thin. (BEAC; IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Among Central Africa's more diversified (oil, cocoa, timber, the regional port at Douala), but with declining oil, conflict disruption, and weak logistics. (IMF; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.33 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -0.33 │ 60% │

│ long │ -0.33 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A personalized regime with weak rule of law and a crushed press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Personalized rule, no real judicial independence, and pervasive corruption (a low TI standing). (Freedom House; V-Dem; TI)

Statistical Integrity - Usable and IMF-engaged; political data unreliable. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Patronage-laden, with limited reach in conflict zones. (World Bank)

Press Freedom - A poor RSF standing, with detained journalists and a death in custody. (RSF; CPJ)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.56 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -4.56 │ 59% │

│ long │ -4.56 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An extreme succession fat-tail over a two-front internal war and a deep Anglophone cleavage. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 82% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 82% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A leader in power since 1982 re-elected at ~92 to an 8th term in a disputed Oct 2025 vote that sparked deadly protests - an acute, unmanaged succession fat-tail. (Al Jazeera; ICG)

Civil Liberties - Rated 'Not Free' - post-election crackdowns, detentions, and an opposition leader's house arrest. (Freedom House; Amnesty)

Treatment Non Citizens - Hosts Nigerian/CAR refugees under strain; not a destination. (UNHCR)

Social Cohesion - A deep Anglophone-Francophone cleavage feeding the western separatist war, plus the northern conflict. (ICG; HRW)

Demographics - Young and growing - a dividend-or-strain double-edge. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.40 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.40 │ 60% │

│ long │ -4.40 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A France-linked but drifting actor with two active internal conflicts. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Historic France/Western ties with growing China/Russia engagement and Lake-Chad counterterror cooperation - a hedging drift. (ICG; CRS)

Conflict Involvement - A two-front internal war - the Anglophone separatist conflict (thousands killed, ~1M displaced) and Boko Haram/ISWAP in the Far North. (HRW; ACLED)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Not broadly sanctioned, within the CEMAC regional FX framework. (BEAC; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.60 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -2.60 │ 60% │

│ long │ -2.60 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Weak healthcare and infrastructure, high crime/conflict insecurity, and climate exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 64% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 65% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Split far-north Sahel drought vs flood-prone south, Lake Chad shrinkage, weak readiness. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - Weak and low-spend, strained by conflict displacement. (WHO; World Bank)

Infrastructure - Poor-moderate, with the regional Douala port a bottleneck and conflict-zone disruption. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - High insecurity - conflict-zone violence, kidnapping, and Gulf-of-Guinea piracy exposure. (ACLED; OSAC)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible penetration. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.09 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -5.19 │ 59% │

│ long │ -5.29 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -3.88 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -2.61 │ 60% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -1.71 │ 60% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -3.85 │ -3.87 │ -3.88 │

│ Assets │ -2.60 │ -2.61 │ -2.62 │

│ Currency │ -1.71 │ -1.71 │ -1.71 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘