- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics from independent sources (IMF, World Bank, V-Dem, Freedom House, RSF, TI, Sherpa/OCCRP, HRW) + international press; Congolese state media EXCLUDED there. This is Congo-Brazzaville, NOT the DRC.

- Denis Sassou Nguesso (in power since 1979 with a 1992-97 gap) was re-elected to a fifth term with ~95% in a March 2026 vote the opposition boycotted, conducted under a nationwide internet blackout and pre-poll arrests.

- Standout drags: a 42-year personalist incumbency with an unresolved succession, acute debt distress (~97% GDP), family-level grand corruption (the 'Biens mal acquis' cases), and a documented 2024 torture/detention surge; the CFA euro peg is the lone offset.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A peg-anchored but debt-distressed, declining-oil rentier refinancing via costly Eurobonds. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 72% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt ~97.2% of GDP and in distress with fresh arrears and a 2025-26 payment peak refinanced via costly Eurobonds against falling oil. (IMF 2026; Reuters; World Bank)

Monetary Independence - The CEMAC CFA euro peg with a French convertibility guarantee - stable but non-sovereign. (BEAC; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The CFA franc is regional, not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and peg-anchored near the CEMAC norm. (IMF)

Banking Stability - COBAC-supervised but heavily exposed to sovereign treasuries - regional-bank appetite for Congolese paper is a flagged IMF risk. (IMF 2026)

Trade Actions Capacity - Oil-dependent (the Pointe-Noire hub) with declining output, a gas-investment pivot, and minimal diversification - a resource curse. (IMF; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.81 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -1.81 │ 60% │

│ long │ -1.81 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

No judicial independence, family-level grand corruption, and a repressed press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 78% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - No judicial independence and pervasive grand corruption (CPI ~23/100), with active foreign ill-gotten-gains and Petronor-bribery cases against the ruling family. (TI 2024; Sherpa; Freedom House 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Weak but IMF-engaged on macro data; political data unreliable. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Patronage-driven and thin. (World Bank)

Press Freedom - Pervasive self-censorship and election-period repression (Pointe-Noire comms cut, journalists detained). (RSF; Freedom House 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.18 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -5.18 │ 59% │

│ long │ -5.18 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A 42-year incumbency re-entrenched by a boycotted vote, with a documented abuse surge and high poverty. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 78% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A 42-year incumbent re-entrenched at ~95% via a boycotted March 2026 vote with an internet blackout - suppressed instability with an acute succession overhang. (Al Jazeera; African Arguments)

Civil Liberties - A sharp documented rise in torture/arbitrary detention (CAD: 122 torture cases H1-2024 vs 13 prior). (Freedom House 2025; CAD/press)

Treatment Non Citizens - Not rights-protective, with a history of mass expulsions of DRC nationals. (HRW; OHCHR)

Social Cohesion - Poverty ~52% despite oil, with lingering (now dormant) Pool-region tensions. (World Bank; HRW)

Demographics - Young and highly urbanised - a potential dividend against weak jobs. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.35 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.50 │ 60% │

│ long │ -4.65 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A China-indebted hedger with a dormant insurgency and Eurobond transfer risk. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 72% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Pragmatic France/China hedging with heavy Chinese-debt entanglement; no bloc drift. (AidData; press)

Conflict Involvement - No active war; the Pool insurgency dormant since the 2017 ceasefire. (HRW; ACLED)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Not internationally sanctioned, within CEMAC FX, but Eurobond reliance amid thin reserves raises transfer risk. (IMF 2026; BEAC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.90 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -0.90 │ 60% │

│ long │ -0.90 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Weak healthcare and infrastructure with flood-prone river cities. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 65% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 50% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Coastal flood/erosion on a low Atlantic shore, with oil-dependent low readiness. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - A weak system (HDI ~153, medium-low) with thin services outside the two main cities. (World Bank; UNDP)

Infrastructure - Oil-funded pockets (the Pointe-Noire port, Brazzaville) against broadly poor power and roads. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - High urban crime in Brazzaville/Pointe-Noire. (OSAC)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible penetration. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.09 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -5.19 │ 58% │

│ long │ -5.30 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -4.31 │ 59% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -3.11 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -2.47 │ 60% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -4.19 │ -4.25 │ -4.31 │

│ Assets │ -3.08 │ -3.11 │ -3.14 │

│ Currency │ -2.47 │ -2.48 │ -2.48 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘