- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-20): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-14 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran war DEEPENED rather than broke pattern - the US naval blockade of Iranian ports held all window, OFAC's wind-down GL X1 EXPIRED July 17 (full Iran oil sanctions restored), the US combat death toll rose to 17 (430+ wounded) after Iran hit Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti air base July 17, and the US ran a ninth consecutive night of strikes (incl. the Darkhovin nuclear-plant site, IAEA reviewing). Iran's retaliation crossed a threshold: it struck Kuwait's power + desalination plant twice (first civilian-infrastructure targeting) and Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields (-140-150k bpd), and on July 20 the Houthis opened a new front with a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia (ending the 2022 truce). Brent ran to ~$88-90; Hormuz war-risk hull premiums held at 3-10% of value. Secondary: the EU FROZE the $44.10 Russia oil cap for one week to July 23 (the prior pass's lapse risk did NOT materialize - held, not scored as relief) with the 21st sanctions package still stalled (a narrow Kyiv-strike mini-package adopted July 17 instead); Russia's MOEX hit a 17-week losing streak (worst since 1997), the deficit overshot plan by ~1T rubles and the ruble slid ~8%/mo to ~78.6; Ukraine's Kerch Strait / Don-Azov shipping halt PERSISTED with no reopening as Russia hit Kyiv with a 41-missile barrage July 19; the Poland-Ukraine White Eagle rift DE-ESCALATED (Zelensky opened SBU archives July 17, Tusk welcomed it); Andy Burnham became UK PM July 20 (7th in a decade but a clean handover, dropped digital ID); Israel's Knesset dissolved on schedule July 17 (Oct 27 elections) after a judicial-oversight/media legislative blitz; China's Q2 GDP printed 4.3% (weakest since 2022); India's rupee broke past its defense band to ~96.4; deadly monsoon flooding hit Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal; Nicaragua's Ortega declared no more elections; Cuba logged its 5th total grid collapse of 2026; Venezuela's quake toll passed 5,200; DRC's Ebola became the fastest-growing month-on-month; Mali's JNIM/FLA reversed the Anefis gain; Morocco released journalist Ali Lmrabet; a M7.4 quake struck the Mexico-Guatemala border. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-07): news pull since the 2026-06-18 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire proved repeatedly reversible (remote MoU June 17 + 60-day Burgenstock roadmap June 21, then a Kiku-tanker strike -> US strikes on 5 Iranian sites -> Iranian retaliation on US bases in Kuwait/Bahrain June 27-28 -> fresh Saudi/Qatari tanker strikes July 7 -> Trump 'finish the job'), even as verified relief landed (OFAC General License X, a 60-day Iranian-oil-export waiver ~$8-9B) and Hormuz volumes recovered to ~90% of pre-war baseline. Iran's $24B/$12B frozen-asset claim stays Mehr/parliamentary-sourced and US-denied -> excluded. Secondary: Russia's refinery/fuel crisis + deficit blowout (160% of the annual target, exile-press sourced); Ukraine's EU-accession progress + NATO 140bn-euro pledge vs the deadliest Kyiv strikes of the year; Venezuela's twin quake + constitutional-legality shock; certified-but-contested elections in Peru (Fujimori) and Colombia (de la Espriella); Bolivia's blockade crisis easing under a state of emergency; US inflation topping 4% and SCOTUS striking the birthright-citizenship order while domestic-terrorism sentences and ICE-detention deaths mount; China's rare-earth coercion + HK Article 23 expansion; India's near-final US trade deal vs a press-freedom slide; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk watch. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV 2025, OECD, World Bank, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem) + Colombian official (DANE, Banco de la Republica) + Colombian/Spanish-language press (El Tiempo, El Espectador, La Silla Vacia, Semana).

- Politics: a leftist government gridlocked with Congress and the courts; 2025 brought a US-relations rupture (a decertification and US sanctions on the president) and the assassination of a presidential candidate, with a tense May-2026 election ahead.

- Standout drags: fiscal deterioration, internal armed conflict, elevated crime, and US friction; genuine strengths are a credible central bank, sound banks, strong courts, and lawful migration handling. Source-lean: MODERATE Anglophone; the US-relations framing leans to US outlets.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A credible central bank and sound banks, against a fiscal deterioration and a transition-deterred commodity sector. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 87% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Held at -5 with confidence up 0.85 -> 0.87: the fiscal handoff is now fully documented - a 2026 budget with unfunded gaps, a deficit estimated at 8.1% of GDP, and the fiscal rule suspended - inherited intact by an administration pledging austerity. The level was already priced; the documentation firms the confidence.

Monetary Independence - An independent, credible inflation-targeter that proactively hiked - a genuine institutional strength. (Banco de la Republica)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The peso is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Sticky around ~5%, projected to rise before converging to target by 2027 - above target but credibly managed. (BanRep)

Banking Stability - Well-capitalised with adequate provisioning, judged resilient. (IMF; BanRep FSR)

Trade Actions Capacity - Oil/coal/coffee exposure with an energy-transition push that deters hydrocarbon investment, partly offset by strong institutions; weak private investment. (IMF; press)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.37 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +0.37 │ 74% │

│ long │ +0.37 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong courts and credible statistics, against weak rural state presence and a confrontational executive. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Both sides are degrading constitutional norms: the law requires inauguration before Congress in Bogota, yet the president-elect plans a military-garrison ceremony while the sitting president wields military orders against the transition and maintains debunked fraud claims (Infobae, El Heraldo - independent; electoral authorities' certification stands). Worsened -3 -> -4; confidence held.

Statistical Integrity - The statistics agency (DANE) is credible and independent. (DANE)

Civil Service Capacity - Mixed - capable central institutions with thin rural delivery. (World Bank; IMF)

Press Freedom - Held at -2: IAPA and Colombia's FLIP flagged the incoming president's 2008-2019 record of 109 defamation/slander suits against journalists - described by FLIP as a pattern of judicial harassment - including a threatened 2026 suit over a column on his ties to sanctioned businessman Alex Saab. A credible advance warning from genuine watchdogs; no enacted press action yet in-window, so the record is booked and the score awaits conduct in office.

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.47 │ 68% │

│ mid │ -0.47 │ 68% │

│ long │ -0.47 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong liberties and lawful migration handling, against polarised gridlock, political violence, and inequality. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 87% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Improved -7 -> -6 on a realized institutional pass: Abelardo de la Espriella was inaugurated Aug 7 in an orderly, unrest-free transfer (held in Cali, the third inauguration ever outside Bogota - a deliberate hardline signal toward armed groups), succeeding Petro after a clean June runoff. The 'all-out war' posture toward narco-terrorism and the fragile-peace risk it carries are forward risks, not window events; Petro's request for year-long leave abroad (Aug 12) noted.

Civil Liberties - Strong constitutional protections and active courts. (WJP; V-Dem)

Treatment Non Citizens - A landmark program regularised ~2.8M Venezuelan migrants on long-term status - relatively open and lawful, though support is quietly eroding. (GFMD)

Social Cohesion - High inequality and urban-rural and conflict-legacy divides. (World Bank; ICG)

Demographics - Still young, but with fertility falling sharply and ageing/emigration ahead. (DANE; BanRep)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.75 │ 75% │

│ mid │ -0.75 │ 75% │

│ long │ -0.75 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An open economy whose historic US alliance is at a nadir, dominated by internal armed conflict. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 88% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Improved -5 -> -4: extraditions to the United States resumed alongside the end of Total Peace (UPI, Aug 27). Resumed extradition cooperation is the most concrete measure of the bilateral security relationship functioning.

Conflict Involvement - Worsened -7 -> -8: the government formally ended the 'Total Peace' negotiation strategy with armed rebel groups on Aug 27 (UPI, with a Bloomberg follow-up Aug 30 framing it as a blow to the peace process). Ending negotiations without a settlement returns the relationship with those groups to a purely military one.

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open economy, not under sanctions, with no capital controls. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.40 │ 75% │

│ mid │ -3.40 │ 75% │

│ long │ -3.40 │ 75% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Improving infrastructure, against multi-hazard climate exposure, a healthcare crisis, and high regional crime. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Andean water stress plus Caribbean/Pacific coast plus ENSO swings, moderate readiness. (ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Broad coverage but an acute system crisis - a rejected reform, declining funding, and worsening access. (El Espectador; Colombia One)

Infrastructure - Improving (metro and rail projects) but mountainous, uneven, with rural gaps. (trade.gov)

Crime Safety - An elevated and rising homicide rate, extortion, and kidnapping, with conflict zones acutely dangerous against safer major cities. (InsightCrime; Statista)

Disaster Insurance - A developing market with sovereign catastrophe instruments advancing, against seismic and flood exposure and low retail penetration. (World Bank; IDF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.34 │ 72% │

│ mid │ -3.43 │ 72% │

│ long │ -3.53 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -1.04 │ 72% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -0.90 │ 73% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -0.43 │ 73% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -1.01 │ -1.02 │ -1.04 │

│ Assets │ -0.89 │ -0.90 │ -0.91 │

│ Currency │ -0.43 │ -0.43 │ -0.43 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘