- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, Banque de France, Freedom House, RSF, ReliefWeb/OCHA) + international press; state media EXCLUDED on governance.

- A coup-prone Indian Ocean archipelago (~20 coups/attempts since 1975) with deep Anjouan/Moheli secessionist history and the unresolved Mayotte dispute; President Azali (a former coup leader) won a disputed Jan 2024 election amid post-election unrest.

- Standout drags: chronic political fragility, very weak human capital and healthcare, and acute cyclone/volcanic exposure (Cyclone Chido, Dec 2024); the euro-pegged franc and diaspora remittances are the external anchors.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

A peg-anchored but weak-revenue, remittance-financed economy with a tiny export base. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 50% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Weak revenue mobilisation (tax revenue down ~12% by mid-2025) and uneven consolidation, though under an IMF ECF. (IMF ECF 4th Review 2025)

Monetary Independence - The franc's euro peg with an unlimited French convertibility guarantee imports euro-area discipline - limited autonomy but a real anchor. (Banque de France; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The Comorian franc is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Elevated but moderating - ~7.3% y/y in March 2025 on Cyclone Chido supply shocks, anchored over time by the euro peg. (IMF 2025)

Banking Stability - A small, shallow sector with weak credit, gradual recovery but limited supervision/depth. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - A tiny, undiversified export base (vanilla, cloves, ylang-ylang) with a structural trade deficit financed by diaspora remittances. (IMF; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.85 │ 70% │

│ mid │ -0.85 │ 70% │

│ long │ -0.85 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Weak, politicized institutions with entrenched corruption and a fragile press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Weak and politicized - power consolidated post-2018, with a contested judiciary and entrenched corruption. (Freedom House 2025; Heritage)

Statistical Integrity - IMF program-engaged with usable but limited-capacity statistics. (IMF ECF 2025)

Civil Service Capacity - Chronic underinvestment - among the lowest on the Human Capital Index, with weak service delivery. (World Bank)

Press Freedom - Mixed/fragile - pressure on the opposition, but 2025 saw first-ever press cards and Parliament rejecting a source-disclosure clause (RSF ~72/180). (RSF 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.17 │ 61% │

│ mid │ -2.17 │ 61% │

│ long │ -2.17 │ 61% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Coup-prone with a disputed election and deadly unrest, over persistent inter-island grievances. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A coup-prone history and the disputed Jan 2024 election with deadly unrest - stability rests on consolidated executive power, not durable institutions. (France 24; ISS)

Civil Liberties - Restricted - crackdowns on opposition and protest, with reported violence in the 2024 post-election period. (Freedom House 2025; France 24)

Treatment Non Citizens - A limited foreign population; the dominant migration story is Comorians risking the crossing to Mayotte. (France 24; inference)

Social Cohesion - Persistent inter-island grievances (Anjouan/Moheli vs Moroni) and the Mayotte question fuel latent fragmentation. (Britannica; ISS)

Demographics - Young but very poor (~45% below the poverty line), with high emigration and weak human capital. (France 24; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.67 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -2.67 │ 60% │

│ long │ -2.67 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

France-dependent and broadly non-aligned, conflict-free but with the Mayotte dispute unresolved. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 50% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 60% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Close, dependency-driven ties to France (currency guarantee, diaspora, aid) plus AU engagement; small and non-aligned. (Banque de France)

Conflict Involvement - No active armed conflict, but a history of secessionist insurgencies/interventions and the unresolved Mayotte sovereignty dispute. (AU records)

Sanctions Capital Controls - No sanctions; the euro peg's convertibility guarantee supports external stability despite a thin economy. (Banque de France; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.02 │ 56% │

│ mid │ +2.02 │ 56% │

│ long │ +2.02 │ 56% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Acute cyclone and volcanic exposure, with a severely under-resourced health system. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 65% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 40% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - An Indian-Ocean SIDS - cyclones, coastal/sea-level exposure, freshwater scarcity, very low readiness. (ND-GAIN; IPCC SIDS)

Healthcare - Severely under-resourced - shortages of medicines, equipment, and staff, with less than half of pregnant women getting full prenatal care. (World Bank; AHO)

Infrastructure - Poor inter-island connectivity, unreliable power/water, and weak transport on a fragmented archipelago. (World Bank; IMF)

Crime Safety - Ordinary crime moderate; principal risks are political violence and disaster, not baseline crime. (inference)

Disaster Insurance - Acute, compounding hazard (cyclone + Mt Karthala volcanism) with negligible penetration. (Global Volcanism Program; inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.15 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -4.36 │ 59% │

│ long │ -4.56 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -2.24 │ 61% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -1.28 │ 64% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -0.81 │ 66% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -2.18 │ -2.21 │ -2.24 │

│ Assets │ -1.26 │ -1.28 │ -1.30 │

│ Currency │ -0.81 │ -0.81 │ -0.81 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘