- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, MCC, Freedom House, RSF, PreventionWeb) + international press.

- Among Africa's best-governed democracies (top-tier Freedom House 'Free', repeated peaceful alternations, free press), with a tourism-and-remittance economy on a euro-pegged escudo.

- Standout features: strong institutions and a credible disinflation, against high public debt (~105% of GDP, declining under an IMF ECF/RSF), deep European-tourism dependence, and an arid, water-scarce archipelago facing chronic drought and rare Fogo volcanism.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A peg-anchored, low-inflation tourism economy with high-but-declining debt. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ 0.0 │ +0.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt high at ~105% of GDP but on a firm downward path under an on-track IMF ECF; still elevated for a small open economy. (IMF May-2026)

Monetary Independence - The escudo is hard-pegged to the euro, backed by a Portuguese Treasury credit line - stability bought with near-zero autonomy. (IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The escudo is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low and peg-anchored (~2.3%), tracking the euro area - a structural strength. (IMF)

Banking Stability - Broadly stable and supervised within the euro-peg framework, with some legacy NPLs. (IMF; Coface)

Trade Actions Capacity - Heavily concentrated in tourism/services and reliant on imported food/fuel - highly exposed to European demand. (IMF; AfDB)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.25 │ 81% │

│ mid │ +0.36 │ 81% │

│ long │ +0.47 │ 81% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong-for-region rule of law, credible data, a capable state, and a free press. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Strong by African standards - independent courts and respected institutions, though an overburdened court system slows justice. (Freedom House 2025; MCC)

Statistical Integrity - Credible, IMF/World Bank-engaged statistics with frequent reviews. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - A comparatively capable, technocratic administration that has executed sustained reform. (IMF/World Bank)

Press Freedom - Free and pluralistic media, among the best in Africa. (RSF; Freedom House 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, with no military intervention in the modern constitutional period and functioning legislative oversight.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.65 │ 73% │

│ mid │ +3.65 │ 73% │

│ long │ +3.65 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A consolidated democracy with high social trust, thinned over time by emigration. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ -0.50 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Decades of competitive elections and peaceful transfers, with a 2026 general election approaching and no instability signals. (Freedom House 2025)

Civil Liberties - Broadly protected speech/assembly/association, with corruption allegations and judicial backlog the main caveats. (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - No systematic abuse - a tourism economy generally open to foreigners and migrants. (observed)

Social Cohesion - A homogeneous Creole society with high social trust and low political violence. (Freedom House)

Demographics - Heavy emigration and a large diaspora sustain remittances but thin the domestic labour force over time. (World Bank/UN)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.30 │ 71% │

│ mid │ +3.26 │ 71% │

│ long │ +3.22 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A reliable Western/EU/US partner, conflict-free and unsanctioned. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A reliable Western/EU/US partner with a special EU partnership and an MCC compact track record. (MCC)

Conflict Involvement - No conflict involvement - mid-Atlantic islands far from regional insurgencies. (observed)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Unsanctioned and open under an IMF program; the euro peg implies orthodox policy. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.14 │ 71% │

│ mid │ +3.14 │ 71% │

│ long │ +3.14 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Good regional infrastructure and relative safety, against chronic drought and rare volcanism. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -5.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - A Sahelian-Atlantic island state - chronic drought/water scarcity plus sea-level/coastal exposure, with relatively higher SIDS readiness. (ND-GAIN; IPCC)

Healthcare - A functional basic public system but limited, with advanced care concentrated in Praia/Mindelo and supply shortages. (OSAC)

Infrastructure - HELD at 1: a bus carrying 32 people left a mountain road above Sao Filipe on Fogo island late on Sept 5 and fell roughly 30 metres into a ravine, killing at least 25, most of them schoolchildren returning from a volcano excursion (Africa Intelligence Brief, Sept 7). In a country of about 525,000 this is proportionally severe. The score holds because a single crash, however grave, does not establish a systemic road-infrastructure finding, and the item rests on one reporting chain. Confidence lowered 0.65 -> 0.6 to reflect that the sourcing is thin, and carried forward for a road-safety check next cycle.

Crime Safety - One of Africa's safer countries, though rising petty/violent crime in Praia prompted a Dec-2025 US advisory note. (OSAC)

Disaster Insurance - Thin penetration against drought and rare Fogo volcanic risk. (World Bank; PreventionWeb)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.01 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -1.21 │ 60% │

│ long │ -1.41 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +2.32 │ 72% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +1.71 │ 74% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +1.43 │ 77% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +2.36 │ +2.34 │ +2.32 │

│ Assets │ +1.69 │ +1.71 │ +1.74 │

│ Currency │ +1.43 │ +1.49 │ +1.56 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘