Costa Rica (CRI)
Country Risk Assessment v2.3 - assessed 2026-09-03 - skew: symmetric
Flags
- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.
- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: triangulated across multilateral bodies (IMF Article IV, OECD, World Bank, IDB, World Justice Project, RSF, GI-TOC) + Costa Rican official sources (BCCR, INEC, OIJ, TSE) + Costa Rican/regional press (Tico Times, La NaciΓ³n).
- Source-lean: election/crime/press detail leaned heavily on the English-language Tico Times and US outlets; Spanish-language La NaciΓ³n/Semanario Universidad/CRHoy were not read directly, so press-freedom and political nuance carry some Anglophone framing risk.
- Rising narco-transit violence is the standout drag on an otherwise strong, demilitarized democracy.
- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.
Transparency & confidence ceiling
Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).
Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.
Economic
Credible macro management (fiscal reform plus an inflation-targeting central bank) and a diversified, resilient export sector; persistent deflation a mild nuance. (skew: positive)
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬ββββββββ¬βββββββ
β Sub-factor β Weight β Conf β Near β Mid β Long β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌββββββββΌβββββββ€
β Fiscal State β 0.22 β 85% β +3.0 β +3.50 β +4.0 β
β Monetary Independence β 0.22 β 80% β +4.0 β +4.0 β +4.0 β
β Reserve Currency Intl Monetary β 0.16 β 95% β 0.0 β 0.0 β 0.0 β
β Inflation β 0.13 β 85% β +2.0 β +2.50 β +3.0 β
β Banking Stability β 0.10 β 75% β +3.0 β +3.0 β +3.0 β
β Trade Actions Capacity β 0.17 β 85% β +4.0 β +4.0 β +4.0 β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄ββββββββ΄βββββββ
Fiscal State - A 2018 reform plus an IMF program drove debt below 60% GDP with a primary surplus (~1.3%) and a falling deficit; debt projected under 55% by 2030. (IMF 2025/2026 Article IV)
Monetary Independence - The BCCR is a credible inflation-targeter (cut the policy rate from 9.0% to ~3.25%); now fighting deflation, undershooting target. (BCCR, IMF)
Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The colΓ³n is not a reserve currency. (definitional)
Inflation - 2025 closed at ~-1.2% and early 2026 near -2.5% (deepest deflation in decades); price stability is excellent but a persistent sub-target undershoot is a mild credibility concern. (BCCR/INEC)
Banking Stability - The system stayed solvent and liquid through recent shocks; the BCCR flags consumer over-indebtedness and ~27% loan dollarization as structural risks. (BCCR financial-stability report)
Trade Actions Capacity - Diversified, resilient exports (~$19bn, +16%): medical devices now the top export, Intel reinvestment, a nearshoring tailwind, plus services/ecotourism; not a petrostate. A strong colΓ³n squeezes exporter margins (mild drag). (PROCOMER, Wilson Center)
Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):
βββββββββββ¬ββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββββββ
β Horizon β Composite score β Confidence β
βββββββββββΌββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββββββ€
β near β +2.71 β 85% β
β mid β +2.88 β 85% β
β long β +3.06 β 85% β
βββββββββββ΄ββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββββββ
Institutional
Solid democratic institutions and credible statistics, under populist strain and organized-crime pressure. (skew: negative)
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ
β Sub-factor β Weight β Conf β Near β Mid β Long β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββ€
β Rule Of Law β 0.31 β 78% β +2.0 β +2.0 β +2.0 β
β Statistical Integrity β 0.22 β 85% β +5.0 β +5.0 β +5.0 β
β Civil Service Capacity β 0.22 β 75% β +3.0 β +3.0 β +3.0 β
β Press Freedom β 0.13 β 85% β +2.0 β +2.0 β +2.0 β
β Civil-Military Relations β 0.12 β 45% β +5.0 β +5.0 β +5.0 β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ
Rule Of Law - Worsened near +3 -> +2: President Laura Fernandez is in an active confrontation with the judiciary at 100 days in office and publicly denied any 'bukelization' intent (El Pais English edition, Aug 27). A head of government having to deny authoritarian consolidation while fighting the courts is a real if early institutional signal in a country whose score rests on judicial independence. One step only, on a single independent chain. Long held +2.
Statistical Integrity - INEC, BCCR, and OIJ produce credible, transparent, independently cited data; OECD-member reporting standards. (OECD, IMF)
Civil Service Capacity - A professional bureaucracy with strong public-health and electoral administration; weakened by a wage freeze and weak infrastructure delivery. (OECD Economic Survey 2025)
Press Freedom - Still among the freest in the region but the RSF rank slid for four straight years amid the president's verbal attacks and ad-withholding (the Constitutional Chamber ruled against him). (RSF 2025, CPJ)
Civil-Military Relations - No standing armed forces. The factor reduces here to the politicization of the police or gendarmerie. It is scored positive by default. Confidence is held low, as the usual evidence base does not apply.
Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):
βββββββββββ¬ββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββββββ
β Horizon β Composite score β Confidence β
βββββββββββΌββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββββββ€
β near β +3.17 β 76% β
β mid β +3.17 β 76% β
β long β +3.17 β 76% β
βββββββββββ΄ββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββββββ
Political & Social
A robust democracy with a favorable, lawful residency pathway, against sharply elevated narco-transit violence and a new single-party legislative majority. (skew: negative)
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬ββββββββ¬βββββββ
β Sub-factor β Weight β Conf β Near β Mid β Long β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌββββββββΌβββββββ€
β Political Stability β 0.30 β 75% β +2.0 β +2.50 β +3.0 β
β Civil Liberties β 0.20 β 80% β +4.0 β +4.0 β +4.0 β
β Treatment Non Citizens β 0.25 β 85% β +5.0 β +5.0 β +5.0 β
β Social Violence β 0.15 β 85% β -3.0 β -2.50 β -2.0 β
β Demographics β 0.10 β 75% β +3.0 β +2.0 β +1.0 β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄ββββββββ΄βββββββ
Political Stability - Feb 2026: Laura FernΓ‘ndez won with the first single-party Assembly majority since 1990, ending executive-legislative gridlock (stability up) but concentrating power around a populist project; peaceful transfer, high turnout. (TSE results)
Civil Liberties - Robust; rated 'Free,' with functioning courts protecting rights; mild erosion via press pressure. (Freedom House 2025)
Treatment Non Citizens - Lawful, durable, long-popular residency routes (pensionado, rentista, inversionista); the immigration-office backlog is the main friction. (DGME)
Social Violence - Homicide ~16.8/100k (near record), driven by cocaine-transit cartels; criminal organizations grew roughly tenfold in a decade; mostly gang-on-gang, with a slight 2025 dip but structurally elevated. (OIJ, GI-TOC Org Crime Index 2025)
Demographics - Still favorable but ageing fast; high life expectancy and falling fertility pressure the social-security/pension system long-term. (INEC, OECD)
Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):
βββββββββββ¬ββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββββββ
β Horizon β Composite score β Confidence β
βββββββββββΌββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββββββ€
β near β +2.49 β 80% β
β mid β +2.62 β 80% β
β long β +2.75 β 80% β
βββββββββββ΄ββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββββββ
Geopolitical
A demilitarized, stable, OECD-integrated democracy with no external conflict and an open capital account. (skew: positive)
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ
β Sub-factor β Weight β Conf β Near β Mid β Long β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββ€
β Alliance Reliability β 0.40 β 85% β +5.0 β +5.0 β +5.0 β
β Conflict Involvement β 0.35 β 90% β +6.0 β +6.0 β +6.0 β
β Sanctions Capital Controls β 0.25 β 85% β +5.0 β +5.0 β +5.0 β
ββββββββββββββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ
Alliance Reliability - No military since 1948, a stable US-aligned democracy and OECD member; a reliable partner. (OECD)
Conflict Involvement - No external conflicts and demilitarized; the only 'conflict' is internal narco-violence (scored under social_violence). (Freedom House)
Sanctions Capital Controls - Open capital account, no controls, not sanctioned, OECD-integrated. (IMF AREAER, OECD)
Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):
βββββββββββ¬ββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββββββ
β Horizon β Composite score β Confidence β
βββββββββββΌββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββββββ€
β near β +5.36 β 87% β
β mid β +5.36 β 87% β
β long β +5.36 β 87% β
βββββββββββ΄ββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββββββ
Physical & Practical
A renewable-energy and universal-healthcare leader, dragged by poor roads and rising crime atop real seismic/storm exposure. (skew: negative)
ββββββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββ¬βββββββ¬βββββββ¬ββββββββ¬βββββββ
β Sub-factor β Weight β Conf β Near β Mid β Long β
ββββββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββΌβββββββΌβββββββΌββββββββΌβββββββ€
β Climate β 0.20 β 70% β -3.0 β -3.50 β -4.0 β
β Healthcare β 0.30 β 85% β +4.0 β +4.0 β +4.0 β
β Infrastructure β 0.20 β 80% β -1.0 β -1.0 β -1.0 β
β Crime Safety β 0.15 β 80% β -2.0 β -2.0 β -2.0 β
β Disaster Insurance β 0.15 β 70% β -1.0 β -1.0 β -1.0 β
ββββββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββ΄βββββββ΄βββββββ΄ββββββββ΄βββββββ
Climate - The best-prepared Central American state, but dual-coast storms plus dry-corridor exposure. (WB CCDR)
Healthcare - CCSS universal coverage with strong primary-care outcomes and high life expectancy; multi-month non-emergency waits; a strong private/medical-tourism tier. (PHCPI, World Bank, OECD)
Infrastructure - Poor roads (among the weakest in the OECD), congestion, and weak project delivery; decent telecom; IDB/CABEI-financed upgrades underway. (OECD, IDB)
Crime Safety - Rising violence concentrated in narco-corridors and specific neighborhoods; tourist/expat zones safer but petty crime is up. (OIJ, OSAC)
Disaster Insurance - High seismic (Ring of Fire) plus storm/flood exposure; the state insurer (INS) is functional; insurable but with a real catastrophe tail. (INS, USGS hazard context)
Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):
βββββββββββ¬ββββββββββββββββββ¬βββββββββββββ
β Horizon β Composite score β Confidence β
βββββββββββΌββββββββββββββββββΌβββββββββββββ€
β near β +0.12 β 78% β
β mid β +0.03 β 78% β
β long β -0.06 β 78% β
βββββββββββ΄ββββββββββββββββββ΄βββββββββββββ
Decisions
Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).
ββββββββββββ¬ββββββββββ¬ββββββββ¬βββββββββββββ¬βββββββββββββββββ
β Decision β Horizon β Score β Confidence β Reading β
ββββββββββββΌββββββββββΌββββββββΌβββββββββββββΌβββββββββββββββββ€
β Living β long β +2.67 β 79% β mixed β
β Assets β mid β +3.05 β 82% β clear positive β
β Currency β near β +3.20 β 83% β clear positive β
ββββββββββββ΄ββββββββββ΄ββββββββ΄βββββββββββββ΄βββββββββββββββββ
Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):
ββββββββββββ¬ββββββββ¬ββββββββ¬ββββββββ
β Decision β Near β Mid β Long β
ββββββββββββΌββββββββΌββββββββΌββββββββ€
β Living β +2.56 β +2.62 β +2.67 β
β Assets β +2.97 β +3.05 β +3.12 β
β Currency β +3.20 β +3.31 β +3.43 β
ββββββββββββ΄ββββββββ΄ββββββββ΄ββββββββ