- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-20): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-14 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran war DEEPENED rather than broke pattern - the US naval blockade of Iranian ports held all window, OFAC's wind-down GL X1 EXPIRED July 17 (full Iran oil sanctions restored), the US combat death toll rose to 17 (430+ wounded) after Iran hit Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti air base July 17, and the US ran a ninth consecutive night of strikes (incl. the Darkhovin nuclear-plant site, IAEA reviewing). Iran's retaliation crossed a threshold: it struck Kuwait's power + desalination plant twice (first civilian-infrastructure targeting) and Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields (-140-150k bpd), and on July 20 the Houthis opened a new front with a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia (ending the 2022 truce). Brent ran to ~$88-90; Hormuz war-risk hull premiums held at 3-10% of value. Secondary: the EU FROZE the $44.10 Russia oil cap for one week to July 23 (the prior pass's lapse risk did NOT materialize - held, not scored as relief) with the 21st sanctions package still stalled (a narrow Kyiv-strike mini-package adopted July 17 instead); Russia's MOEX hit a 17-week losing streak (worst since 1997), the deficit overshot plan by ~1T rubles and the ruble slid ~8%/mo to ~78.6; Ukraine's Kerch Strait / Don-Azov shipping halt PERSISTED with no reopening as Russia hit Kyiv with a 41-missile barrage July 19; the Poland-Ukraine White Eagle rift DE-ESCALATED (Zelensky opened SBU archives July 17, Tusk welcomed it); Andy Burnham became UK PM July 20 (7th in a decade but a clean handover, dropped digital ID); Israel's Knesset dissolved on schedule July 17 (Oct 27 elections) after a judicial-oversight/media legislative blitz; China's Q2 GDP printed 4.3% (weakest since 2022); India's rupee broke past its defense band to ~96.4; deadly monsoon flooding hit Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal; Nicaragua's Ortega declared no more elections; Cuba logged its 5th total grid collapse of 2026; Venezuela's quake toll passed 5,200; DRC's Ebola became the fastest-growing month-on-month; Mali's JNIM/FLA reversed the Anefis gain; Morocco released journalist Ali Lmrabet; a M7.4 quake struck the Mexico-Guatemala border. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/economics rebuilt from independent sources (IMF/EIU/ECLAC estimates, V-Dem, RSF, Freedom House, HRW, Amnesty, CPJ, WOLA) + independent/exile press (14ymedio, Diario de Cuba, El Toque); Cuban state media and official statistics EXCLUDED there - even headline GDP/population rest on independent estimates.

- A one-party communist state in deep economic collapse: a botched currency unification, mass emigration, chronic blackouts, and a degraded once-vaunted health system.

- Standout drags: economic collapse, a closed autocracy, a demographic crisis, and collapsing infrastructure under the US embargo. Overall: clearly negative.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A collapsed, defaulted, embargo-constrained economy with a botched currency and high inflation. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 68% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 75% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 98% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 65% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 65% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - HELD at -7: Havana opened the door to expanded US private-enterprise investment as the economy struggles under the embargo and fuel crisis (AP via Local10, Sept 3). A closed economy inviting investment from the country sanctioning it is a distress signal and a potential relief channel at once, and no terms were published, so it is recorded rather than scored. Confidence 0.65 -> 0.68.

Monetary Independence - No central-bank independence; a botched 2021 unification left the peso collapsed with a wide official/street gap. (El Toque)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Very high and dollarization-driven, with official figures understating it. (Havana Times)

Banking Stability - Broken and cash/dollar-rationed amid an FX shortage. (El Toque)

Trade Actions Capacity - Tourism crashed, plus nickel/medical-services exports and remittances; embargo-constrained and import-dependent in a food-and-fuel crisis. (EIU)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.97 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -5.97 │ 60% │

│ long │ -5.97 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A closed autocracy with no rule of law, unusable data, and among the worst press repression. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 50% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A one-party communist state with no judicial independence - a closed autocracy. (V-Dem 2026; Freedom House)

Statistical Integrity - Opaque and unusable, with disputed population figures. (Columbia)

Civil Service Capacity - Historically capable but resource-starved and hollowing via emigration. (independent analysis)

Press Freedom - Among the worst in the Americas - a near-bottom RSF standing, with journalists jailed or exiled. (RSF; CPJ)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are constitutionally or practically an instrument of a ruling party or a personalist ruler. Civilian control exists in form. Professional insulation from politics does not exist at all. Loyalty purges are therefore an available tool.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.34 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -6.34 │ 58% │

│ long │ -6.34 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Entrenched one-party rule under collapse pressure, severe repression, and a demographic crisis. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 45% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Protest normalization advanced: pot-banging protests in multiple Havana districts, Santiago de Cuba and Cienfuegos on July 24-25, the eve of the Moncada anniversary, with activists alleging selective power restoration to blunt them (CubaHeadlines - exile tilt, activist-sourced; the blackout driver is independently established). Worsened near -4 -> -5; long held -5; confidence held low at 0.6 on the tilt-heavy sourcing.

Civil Liberties - Severe repression, with hundreds of 2021 protesters still imprisoned. (HRW; Amnesty)

Treatment Non Citizens - Not a destination and with no real residency pathway. (observed)

Social Cohesion - The young drained out, with chronic blackouts, shortages, and despair. (independent analysis)

Demographics - A demographic crisis - among the fastest-ageing, with a mass exodus (over a million since 2021, mostly working-age). (U.Navarra; CEDA)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.83 │ 56% │

│ mid │ -5.83 │ 56% │

│ long │ -5.83 │ 56% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Isolated and embargoed, relisted as a US state-sponsor of terrorism. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 60% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 88% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Isolated and Russia/China/Venezuela-leaning, relisted as a US state-sponsor of terrorism. (State Dept)

Conflict Involvement - No war, with internal-unrest risk. (HRW)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Worsened -8 -> -9: fresh US sanctions on Sept 3 hit Cuba's fuel sector directly and designated Fidel Ernesto Castro, a grandson of Raul Castro (Bloomberg), with a further round reported Sept 4 as continuing to squeeze the economy (Al Jazeera). Moving from general embargo maintenance to targeting the fuel supply of an economy already suffering rolling blackouts attacks the binding constraint rather than the periphery. Confidence 0.85 -> 0.88.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.95 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.95 │ 60% │

│ long │ -4.95 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Collapsing infrastructure and a degraded health system, with worsening hurricane exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 88% │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 50% │ -1.0 │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 50% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘

Climate - A large low-lying island - frequent major hurricanes plus saltwater intrusion plus low economic readiness. (IPCC AR6 SIDS)

Healthcare - The once-vaunted system degraded - severe medicine/doctor shortages and a doctor-export drain. (UN News)

Infrastructure - HELD at the -10 floor, confidence 0.85 -> 0.88: total nationwide grid collapse Sept 18, the sixth since US fuel cuts, with cellphone and internet also down (AP, Reuters). CiberCuba reported 70%+ demand shortfalls from generation capacity. A single crash does not move a floored score; repeated total collapses raise confidence the infrastructure read is correct.

Crime Safety - Historically low street crime but rising amid the crisis. (independent analysis)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible penetration against high hazard. (general)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.63 │ 57% │

│ mid │ -6.97 │ 57% │

│ long │ -7.32 │ 57% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -6.20 │ 58% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -5.99 │ 59% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -5.88 │ 59% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -6.10 │ -6.15 │ -6.20 │

│ Assets │ -5.95 │ -5.99 │ -6.02 │

│ Currency │ -5.88 │ -5.88 │ -5.88 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘