- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV 2026, OECD, EC, Eurostat, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem) + Czech official (CZSO, Czech National Bank) + Czech independent press (Radio Prague, plus Seznam Zpravy/Denik N read indirectly).

- Politics: the Oct-2025 election returned the Babis/ANO party in a populist-leaning coalition - a democratic, orderly transfer that raises EU-friction and alliance-recalibration risk.

- Standout features: a prudent, export-driven economy, strong institutions, and low crime, against a populist political turn, a near-term defence/alliance haircut, and demographic decline. Source-lean: MODERATE Anglophone.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A prudent fiscal position, a credible central bank, sound banks, and a strong export base. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Low debt ~44.6% GDP with a deficit ~2% - prudent, with the IMF urging modest consolidation to hold the line. (IMF Art IV 2026)

Monetary Independence - The CNB is statutorily independent and highly credible (repo ~3.5%). (CNB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The koruna (an EU non-eurozone currency) is not a reserve asset. (definitional)

Inflation - At or near the 2% target band, with a brief late-2026 uptick then converging. (CNB)

Banking Stability - Well-capitalised and profitable, with deposits exceeding loans and 2025 stress tests passed. (CNB FSR)

Trade Actions Capacity - An export/auto/manufacturing powerhouse deeply integrated into German supply chains and a nearshoring beneficiary, no resource curse; concentration the flip-side risk. (OECD 2025; EC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +4.36 │ 88% │

│ mid │ +4.36 │ 88% │

│ long │ +4.36 │ 88% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Independent EU-compliant courts, credible statistics, and a free press, with media-ownership concentration the watch-item. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Independent, EU-compliant courts (a WJP top-20 standing), with the incoming prime minister's unresolved business conflict-of-interest the watch-item. (WJP 2025; EC)

Statistical Integrity - The CZSO is credible and Eurostat-compliant. (CZSO; Eurostat)

Civil Service Capacity - A capable administration with strong EU-funds absorption. (OECD)

Press Freedom - Free and diverse (an RSF top-tier standing), with high ownership concentration and prime-minister-linked media a structural concern. (RSF 2026)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, backed by tested parliamentary oversight and a long unbroken record of apolitical command.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.55 │ 77% │

│ mid │ +5.55 │ 77% │

│ long │ +5.55 │ 77% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong liberties and an integrated refugee population, against a populist political turn and demographic decline. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -1.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 85% │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - The Oct-2025 election returned the Babis/ANO party in a coalition with populist/right partners - a populist turn raising EU-friction risk, but the transfer was democratic and orderly. (OSW; Euronews)

Civil Liberties - Strong, EU-standard protections. (V-Dem; Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - A large, lawfully integrated Ukrainian-refugee population on durable work/residence routes. (UNHCR; OSW)

Social Cohesion - Cohesive, with comparatively low polarisation despite the populist current. (V-Dem; OSW)

Demographics - Sub-replacement fertility (~1.37) and ageing, with migration only partly offsetting a deepening natural decline. (CZSO)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.22 │ 80% │

│ mid │ +1.27 │ 80% │

│ long │ +1.31 │ 80% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A NATO/EU member with an open economy, against a near-term alliance recalibration and war-adjacency. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +5.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A NATO/EU member, though an observable post-2025 recalibration (defence below the NATO pledge, scaled-back ammunition backing) trims near-term reliability. (NATO; Euronews)

Conflict Involvement - No direct conflict, war-adjacent in Central Europe with no border/frontline exposure. (observed)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An EU regime with an open capital account. (EU)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.11 │ 81% │

│ mid │ +2.50 │ 81% │

│ long │ +2.90 │ 81% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Good modern infrastructure, universal healthcare, and low crime, against flood exposure. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +0.50 │ 0.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 55% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Temperate, high readiness, but recurrent drought (Elbe basin) and 2024 floods. (ND-GAIN; EEA)

Healthcare - Universal with high satisfaction and low unmet need, with a workforce-ageing risk. (OECD Health at a Glance 2025)

Infrastructure - Good, modern, and EU-funded. (EC; OECD)

Crime Safety - Low crime, with the capital among the safest cities - a clear strength. (CZSO)

Disaster Insurance - Flood exposure in a developed but unevenly penetrated insurance market. (2024 floods)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.30 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +3.20 │ 74% │

│ long │ +3.11 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +3.59 │ 79% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +3.96 │ 82% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +4.10 │ 84% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +3.55 │ +3.57 │ +3.59 │

│ Assets │ +3.90 │ +3.96 │ +4.01 │

│ Currency │ +4.10 │ +4.16 │ +4.22 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘