- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-09-08): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-03 -> 09-08 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. The shared WebSearch budget was exhausted mid-run and the Asia-Pacific and global-macro sweeps fell back to self-hosted SearXNG, so Asia-Pacific coverage is a known gap this pass. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war moved decisively to sea. Iran fired ballistic missiles at two US warships near Hormuz and the US struck three Iranian oil tankers in reply, Iran's Artesh hit al-Minhad air base in the UAE and Ahmad al-Jaber in Kuwait, and Tehran announced it will declare a Gulf and Gulf-of-Oman exclusion zone within days while saying an Iran-Oman corridor deal awaits signature. Second arc: the global rate cycle turned to tightening on war-driven energy. Fed funds futures priced roughly a 58% chance of a September HIKE with PCE sticky at 3.7% and WTI back above $90, and the ECB is expected to hike to 2.50% on Sept 10 with euro-area August inflation at 3.3% on energy. Third arc: institutions under strain in large democracies. Brazil's Supreme Court turned on itself as police intercepts from the Banco Master fraud probe implicated Justice Moraes, who led the Bolsonaro prosecution, and the AfD took 43.8% in Saxony-Anhalt, the first outright far-right state win in Germany since WWII. The US peace push on Ukraine produced a 72-hour capital-strike pause and an IAEA-brokered repair ceasefire at Zaporizhzhia, which had been running on emergency diesel since Aug 20, but no deal. CORRECTION: Niger's Aug 28-29 coup attempt, missed entirely by the 09-03 pass, is booked late here. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-06-03): news pull since the 2026-05-28 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded; Iran's Hormuz-closure claims sourced to Tasnim are treated as regime intent, not verified action). A few late-May items not captured in the prior pass are flagged in-note. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: triangulated across multilateral bodies (IMF Article IV 2025, OECD, World Justice Project, RSF) + strong German official data (Destatis, Bundesbank, BKA, BMI, Deutsche Bahn, GKV) + German press.

- The economy is in structural (not cyclical) industrial stress; the 2025 debt-brake reform and a EUR 500B infrastructure/defence fund are the deliberate upside catalyst.

- Source-lean: moderate Anglophone routing on political/social color; the underlying numbers come from BKA/Destatis primaries.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A strong fiscal/monetary anchor, but the real economy is in structural stress; the 2025 fiscal pivot is the upside catalyst. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 82% │ +5.0 │ +4.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -1.0 │ +0.50 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 72% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 72% │ -2.0 │ -1.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Worsened near 6 -> 5: gas storage at 53% heading into winter with Petroline/Hormuz disruption raises energy-security fiscal pressure; Merz signaled a fifth energy relief round (MSN, Sept 15). Confidence 0.85 -> 0.82.

Monetary Independence - Eurozone - the ECB is credible and independent; no national control, with the Bundesbank a leading voice. (ECB, Bundesbank)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Eurozone member; the euro is the #2 global reserve currency, a modest shared benefit. (IMF COFER)

Inflation - Worsened near 0 -> -1: the ECB hiked to 2.50% on Sept 10 citing euro-area August CPI at 3.3% with energy inflation at 14.3% (CNBC, Eurostat). Germany's gas storage sat at 53% capacity, a 15-year seasonal low, on Sept 15 (Reuters). Industrial output fell 1.1% in July (published Sept 7). War-driven energy is transmitting into prices and industrial activity. Long held 3; near-term squeeze is the move.

Banking Stability - Banks adequately capitalised and liquid; the Bundesbank flags elevated commercial-real-estate credit risk requiring monitoring. (Bundesbank FSR)

Trade Actions Capacity - An export/industrial powerhouse in structural stress: manufacturing output down three straight years, autos/machinery losing share to China, high energy costs post-Russian-gas, and US tariff exposure; near-flat GDP after two recession years. (Destatis; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.46 │ 80% │

│ mid │ +2.59 │ 80% │

│ long │ +2.71 │ 80% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A top-tier baseline (independent courts and statistics) with a mild rule-of-law erosion trend and rising journalist threats. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 82% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 88% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 78% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 82% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - WJP #6/143; an independent Federal Constitutional Court; security-law expansions a watch-item. (WJP 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Destatis is legally independent and Eurostat-compliant. (Destatis, Eurostat)

Civil Service Capacity - Capable and rule-bound but notoriously slow to digitalize, with federal fragmentation across 16 Laender. (OECD 2025)

Press Freedom - RSF ~#14 (2026); attacks on journalists roughly doubled, with security-law concerns. (RSF)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, backed by tested parliamentary oversight and a long unbroken record of apolitical command.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.56 │ 80% │

│ mid │ +5.56 │ 80% │

│ long │ +5.56 │ 80% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A functioning grand coalition, against deep polarization, a surging hard right, and ageing demographics. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 78% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 78% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 72% │ -2.0 │ -1.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 78% │ -1.0 │ -2.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - HELD at -2: AfD's 43.8% Saxony-Anhalt win (Sept 7, consequences in-window) continues to pressure Merz's coalition. No new election event in this window. Confidence 0.76 -> 0.78 on sustained corroboration.

Civil Liberties - A strong baseline; asylum/migration restrictions and surveillance expansion test equal-treatment norms. (WJP, RSF)

Treatment Non Citizens - The skilled path stays open and lawful (the 2024 points-based Opportunity Card, EU Blue Card, freelance visa; dual citizenship retained, naturalization at 5 years), but late-2025 repealed the three-year fast track, suspended some family reunification, and added border turn-backs. Open for skilled, hardening overall. (BMI; OECD Migration Outlook 2025)

Social Cohesion - A record ~84,000 politically motivated crimes in 2024 (+40%, far-right the largest share) and rising antisemitic and asylum-shelter attacks; a high-trust baseline cushions it. (BKA 2024)

Demographics - An ageing population with low fertility; labour-force growth is migration-dependent, with pension/health-spending pressure. (Destatis, IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.30 │ 76% │

│ mid │ +0.27 │ 76% │

│ long │ +0.24 │ 76% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A reliable NATO/EU anchor mid-rearmament; tail exposure via Russia, no direct conflict. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 72% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A NATO/EU core member mid-rearmament (Zeitenwende; defence budget rising sharply, committed to 5% by 2035). (NATO)

Conflict Involvement - A major Ukraine backer with Russian hybrid/sabotage exposure; no direct conflict. (NATO; Atlantic Council)

Sanctions Capital Controls - EU sanctions regime; free capital mobility, no domestic controls. (EU, Bundesbank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.35 │ 77% │

│ mid │ +2.35 │ 77% │

│ long │ +2.35 │ 77% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong healthcare, against notably degraded infrastructure (now being funded for repair) and a flood-protection gap. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 72% │ 0.0 │ -1.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 78% │ -2.0 │ 0.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 78% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 74% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - Low-vulnerability, high-readiness, but rising heat, drought, and 2021-Ahr-type flooding. (ND-GAIN; EEA/UBA)

Healthcare - Universal statutory insurance with strong access and outcomes, but financial strain (a large projected deficit, rising contributions) needing reform. (GKV-Spitzenverband, OECD)

Infrastructure - Notably degraded - poor rail punctuality and a 2024 bridge collapse symptomatic of decay - but the EUR 500B fund targets a turnaround. Degraded now, funded recovery ahead. (Deutsche Bahn; Railway Gazette)

Crime Safety - Generally safe (a low completed-homicide rate) with localized concerns. (BKA 2024)

Disaster Insurance - Strong response capacity, but only ~54% of homes carry flood cover; a mandatory-insurance debate is unresolved. (GDV)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.59 │ 77% │

│ mid │ +1.81 │ 77% │

│ long │ +2.03 │ 77% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +2.89 │ 78% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +3.01 │ 79% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +2.97 │ 80% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +2.81 │ +2.85 │ +2.89 │

│ Assets │ +2.94 │ +3.01 │ +3.08 │

│ Currency │ +2.97 │ +3.04 │ +3.11 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘