- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, CRS, Freedom House, RSF, BTI, Coface, UNHCR) + international press; state media EXCLUDED on governance.

- Strategically pivotal at the Bab-el-Mandeb chokepoint - hosts US (Camp Lemonnier), French, Chinese, Japanese, and Italian bases - with a stable 50-year dollar currency board, against unsustainable Chinese debt and a closed succession question.

- Standout features: rare macro stability (a credible USD currency board, low inflation, a ports/logistics hub) and indispensable geography, against debt the IMF calls unsustainable (>70% to China), port-revenue concentration, Red Sea disruption, water scarcity, and an entrenched authoritarian succession (Guelleh's 6th term, 2026).

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A credible currency board and low inflation, against debt-distress and port-revenue concentration. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 55% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 90% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 55% │ 0.0 │ +1.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - The IMF assesses debt in distress (~70% of GDP, >70% to China), reliant on a 2023 moratorium to 2027, with a narrow non-port revenue base. (IMF; Coface 2025)

Monetary Independence - A currency board pegs the franc to the USD at 177.721 (held since 1973) - a deliberate surrender of policy for stability. (Central Bank of Djibouti)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Not a reserve currency, but >100% USD backing of the monetary base makes the board credible. (CBD)

Inflation - Low and stable, anchored by the dollar peg - among the calmest in the region. (IMF; World Bank)

Banking Stability - Currency-board credibility supports a regional banking-hub role; never devalued in 75 years. (African Business 2025)

Trade Actions Capacity - Ports/logistics are the core competence (transshipment for landlocked Ethiopia), but traffic fell ~10% in 2025 on Red Sea/tariff disruption. (World Bank; Coface 2025)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.70 │ 58% │

│ mid │ -0.54 │ 58% │

│ long │ -0.38 │ 58% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A functional port-state core with commercial-law credibility, against weak political rights and a crushed press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 55% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 45% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 65% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Executive-dominated courts, with some commercial-law credibility for the ports/free-zone sector but weak political-rights protection. (BTI 2026; Freedom House 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Limited transparency and lagged/opaque official data, especially on debt terms. (IMF; BTI)

Civil Service Capacity - A functional core state and well-run port authority, but limited human capital and rural reach. (World Bank; BTI 2026)

Press Freedom - RSF ~166/180 (2025) - no independent domestic outlet, with jamming and internet throttling. (RSF; Freedom House 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.04 │ 52% │

│ mid │ -3.04 │ 52% │

│ long │ -3.04 │ 52% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Near-term stability under entrenched rule, with a deferred succession and Issa-Afar asymmetry. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ 0.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 50% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 50% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 50% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Stable near-term under Guelleh, but the 2025 age-limit removal/2026 sixth term defers an eventual high-stakes succession. (Africanews; ConstitutionNet 2025)

Civil Liberties - Multiparty in form only, with opposition constrained and critics harassed/detained. (Freedom House 2025; BTI 2026)

Treatment Non Citizens - Hosts ~30k+ refugees and major transit migration with limited livelihoods, plus reported Oromo deportations. (UNHCR)

Social Cohesion - Broad acceptance of the nation-state, but an Issa-Afar power asymmetry and Ethiopia-origin Afar spillover create friction. (BTI 2026)

Demographics - Young but with ~26% unemployment (>70% youth) and weak human capital blunting the dividend. (World Bank 2024)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.16 │ 54% │

│ mid │ -1.78 │ 54% │

│ long │ -2.39 │ 54% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A multi-aligned 'strategic landlord' with open convertibility, against Red Sea spillover. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A deliberately multi-aligned 'strategic landlord' (US/France/China/Japan/Italy bases; a 2024 France defense-treaty renewal) - durable but hedging. (Al Jazeera; CRS 2025-26)

Conflict Involvement - Not a combatant in regional wars, but exposed to Red Sea/Houthi disruption, a low-level FRUD-Arme insurgency, and Ethiopia-Afar spillover. (BTI; Horn Review 2025)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open currency-board/free-zone regime with generally free convertibility and no major sanctions, though debt-distress constrains flows. (CBD; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.35 │ 55% │

│ mid │ +0.35 │ 55% │

│ long │ +0.35 │ 55% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

World-class Chinese-built ports/rail and relative safety, against extreme aridity and water scarcity. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 66% │ -6.0 │ -6.50 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 50% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 50% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 40% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Extreme heat, chronic drought, near-total food-import dependence, water scarcity, coastal exposure. (ND-GAIN; WB Horn)

Healthcare - Capital-concentrated and donor-supported - better than fragile peers but with thin rural coverage. (World Bank; EU)

Infrastructure - World-class Chinese-built ports/rail (Addis-Djibouti) and a submarine-cable hub - a genuine strength, though debt-financed. (CRS; World Bank)

Crime Safety - Comparatively low violent crime and one of the safer Horn states for the capital/expat zones. (OSAC)

Disaster Insurance - A limited domestic market - drought/water risk largely uninsured and donor-backstopped. (inference, low data)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.09 │ 53% │

│ mid │ -2.20 │ 53% │

│ long │ -2.31 │ 53% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -2.14 │ 54% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -1.28 │ 55% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -1.01 │ 56% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -1.79 │ -1.96 │ -2.14 │

│ Assets │ -1.28 │ -1.28 │ -1.28 │

│ Currency │ -1.01 │ -0.94 │ -0.86 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘