- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, ECCB, Freedom House, RSF, TI) + international and regional press.

- The 'Nature Isle' - heavily CBI-dependent (a dominant, now-declining revenue source under EU scrutiny) on the East Caribbean dollar (XCD, pegged 2.70/USD), still rebuilding from catastrophic Hurricane Maria (2017).

- Standout features: the cohort's highest civil-liberties score and a credible geothermal/climate-resilience bet, against the poorest and most disaster-exposed profile, elevated debt (~100%), CBI dependence, and electoral-reform tension.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

Peg-anchored low inflation but high debt-distress risk and heavy, declining CBI dependence. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt ~100% of GDP, 'high risk of debt distress', above the ECCU benchmark; the primary balance is strengthening but short of fiscal-rule targets. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - An ECCB member with a credible peg. (ECCB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The XCD is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Low under the peg, with extended tax relief amid global price pressures. (IMF)

Banking Stability - The ECCU system is sound; small-system concentration risk. (ECCB)

Trade Actions Capacity - A small, narrow agriculture/tourism base with no trade leverage. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.43 │ 78% │

│ mid │ -0.43 │ 78% │

│ long │ -0.43 │ 78% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Functioning courts and the cohort's top civil liberties, against electoral-administration disputes. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 60% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Functioning courts - CPI score 60, rank ~37/180 - but electoral-administration disputes weigh on perceptions. (TI; Freedom House)

Statistical Integrity - Full IMF/ECCB engagement, with thin capacity. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Small - managing large reconstruction/geothermal programs stretches capacity. (observed)

Press Freedom - 'Free' but with OECS concerns on political media influence. (RSF)

Civil-Military Relations - No standing armed forces. The factor reduces here to the politicization of the police or gendarmerie. It is scored positive by default. Confidence is held low, as the usual evidence base does not apply.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.89 │ 53% │

│ mid │ +1.89 │ 53% │

│ long │ +1.89 │ 53% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

The cohort's highest civil-liberties score, against a 20-year incumbency and electoral-reform tension. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 60% │ +3.0 │ +2.50 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 40% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 55% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 50% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - PM Roosevelt Skerrit (DLP, since 2004) is entrenched and stable in practice, but reform tension and a long-tenure incumbent raise the longer-run governance-quality question. (Freedom House)

Civil Liberties - Freedom House 2025 score 92/100 - the highest of the cohort. (Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - A large CBI naturalized base with no notable discrimination reported, with thin data. (lower confidence)

Social Cohesion - Generally cohesive, but the 2022 election boycott and 2025 reform protests reveal polarization. (observed)

Demographics - A small, aging population with emigration pressure. (observed)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.08 │ 57% │

│ mid │ +2.93 │ 57% │

│ long │ +2.77 │ 57% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

CARICOM/OECS/ALBA-tied with warmer China/Venezuela ties, conflict-free, with CBI/EU exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 50% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - CARICOM/OECS/ALBA, with warmer China/Venezuela ties than some peers, but still predictable. (observed)

Conflict Involvement - No conflict exposure. (observed)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Heavy CBI reliance plus EU scrutiny means meaningful passport-sanction/Schengen-suspension exposure. (EU; IMI Daily)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.72 │ 66% │

│ mid │ +2.72 │ 66% │

│ long │ +2.72 │ 66% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

The most disaster-exposed of the cohort (Maria 2017), offset by a credible geothermal/resilience bet. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -7.0 │ -8.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 60% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 55% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - 2017 Maria wiped ~226% of GDP - a mountainous SIDS with extreme cyclone exposure. (Germanwatch CRI; IPCC AR6)

Healthcare - Among the thinner systems given lower income, with off-island referral for serious cases. (observed)

Infrastructure - Improving (a climate-resilient rebuild, geothermal commissioning ~2025-26, new airport plans) but starting from a Maria-damaged base. (ThinkGeoEnergy; World Bank)

Crime Safety - A lower violent-crime profile than St Kitts/SVG - relatively safe. (observed)

Disaster Insurance - A CCRIF member, but with a severe protection gap proven by Maria and rising reinsurance costs. (CCRIF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.92 │ 63% │

│ mid │ -3.17 │ 63% │

│ long │ -3.43 │ 63% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.90 │ 60% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.53 │ 67% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +0.51 │ 70% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +1.07 │ +0.98 │ +0.90 │

│ Assets │ +0.57 │ +0.53 │ +0.49 │

│ Currency │ +0.51 │ +0.50 │ +0.50 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘