- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV, World Bank, IDB, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem) + Dominican official (BCRD central bank, ONE) + Dominican/Spanish-language press.

- A regional growth and stability standout with a credible central bank and diversified economy, against the dominant social caveat of the Haiti-border migration crisis.

- Standout features: strong diversified growth, a credible inflation-targeter, and political stability, against mass Haitian deportations, electricity unreliability, and hurricane exposure. Source-lean: MODERATE; rights framing carries mild Anglophone-NGO tone.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A credible inflation-targeter and a genuinely diversified, fast-growing economy. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.50 │ +3.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - A deficit ~3.6% GDP and debt ~58-60% on a gradual downward path under a fiscal rule; electricity-subsidy reform the key lever. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - A credible inflation-targeter holding rates with inflation inside the band - a genuine strength. (BCRD; IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The peso is a managed float, not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - ~3.7-4% and within target, with a strong multi-year stability record. (BCRD; IMF)

Banking Stability - Well-capitalised and profitable, with Basel adoption still in progress. (IMF Art IV)

Trade Actions Capacity - Genuinely diversified - a regional-leading tourism sector, free-zone manufacturing, gold/mining, and remittances - a nearshoring beneficiary, not a petrostate. (BCRD; World Bank; IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.64 │ 86% │

│ mid │ +2.75 │ 86% │

│ long │ +2.86 │ 86% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Improving off a low base - credible statistics and a free press, with a corruption legacy. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.50 │ +2.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 45% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - A large recent WJP gain off a low base; functional but with a persistent corruption legacy. (WJP; TI)

Statistical Integrity - The central bank and statistics office produce credible, IMF-cited data. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Improving (OECD integrity engagement) but with a clientelist legacy. (OECD 2025)

Press Freedom - Free, among the region's better RSF scores, with an ownership-concentration drag. (RSF; IAPA)

Civil-Military Relations - Civilian control is formally intact with recurring friction, thin oversight capacity, or a partly politicized senior appointment process.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.49 │ 72% │

│ mid │ +1.65 │ 72% │

│ long │ +1.81 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable democracy with strong liberties, dominated by the Haiti-migration crisis and inequality. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A stable democracy - the president was re-elected in 2024 in the first round, peaceful and pro-investment. (electoral results; observers)

Civil Liberties - Generally strong and rated 'Free,' but eroded for Haitians and Dominicans of Haitian descent. (Freedom House)

Treatment Non Citizens - Lawful routes exist, but the dominant fact is mass deportations of Haitians, militarised raids, a statelessness legacy, and a border wall. (Amnesty; Global Detention Project)

Social Cohesion - High inequality and entrenched anti-Haitian sentiment, with class/regional divides. (World Bank; Amnesty)

Demographics - Relatively young with a favourable dependency ratio - a dividend. (World Bank; ONE)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.41 │ 81% │

│ mid │ +0.41 │ 81% │

│ long │ +0.41 │ 81% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable pro-Western partner, against acute spillover from Haiti's collapse next door. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -2.50 │ -2.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A stable, pro-US/Western Caribbean partner, OECD-engaged. (OECD; IMF)

Conflict Involvement - No war, but acute spillover from Haiti's state collapse and gang violence on the shared border. (PBS; UN)

Sanctions Capital Controls - An open capital account, not sanctioned and FDI-friendly. (IMF AREAER)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.59 │ 81% │

│ mid │ +1.76 │ 81% │

│ long │ +1.93 │ 81% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Tourism-grade zones and falling crime, against hurricane exposure and electricity unreliability. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 75% │ 0.0 │ +0.50 │ +1.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -1.50 │ -1.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Hurricane belt plus coastal tourism plus Hispaniola drought, mid vulnerability with moderate readiness. (ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Two-tier - a strong private/tourist-zone tier and a weak, low-spend public system. (WHO)

Infrastructure - Tourism-grade in zones but uneven rurally, with chronic electricity unreliability (recent nationwide blackouts). (IDB)

Crime Safety - Moderate and among the Caribbean's lowest homicide rates, with tourist zones protected. (InSight Crime 2025)

Disaster Insurance - A functional hurricane market with moderate-low penetration and a real catastrophe tail. (industry/IDB)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -1.37 │ 74% │

│ mid │ -1.20 │ 74% │

│ long │ -1.03 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +1.15 │ 77% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +1.75 │ 80% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +2.17 │ 82% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +0.94 │ +1.05 │ +1.15 │

│ Assets │ +1.63 │ +1.75 │ +1.88 │

│ Currency │ +2.17 │ +2.29 │ +2.42 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘