- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: governance/rights/politics rebuilt from independent sources (IMF Art IV 2025, World Bank, V-Dem, RSF, TI, Freedom House, HRW, Amnesty, CPJ); Algerian state/state-aligned media EXCLUDED there, with economic figures used where IMF-validated.

- The military ('le pouvoir') is the dominant real power; the civilian president is a figurehead.

- Standout drags: a near-total hydrocarbon rentier, military-dominated institutions, suppressed liberties, migrant expulsions, and severe water/heat exposure; a relative strength is low violent crime.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A near-total hydrocarbon rentier with a pro-cyclical deficit, a state-controlled currency, and a shallow banking sector. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - A hydrocarbon rentier whose deficit blew out to ~14% of GDP in 2024 on falling revenue and a rising wage bill, cushioned by a large import-cover reserve buffer that is projected to erode. (IMF 2025 Art IV)

Monetary Independence - No real central-bank independence, with a managed dinar and a large parallel-market gap. (IMF; Financial Afrik)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The dinar is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Eased markedly (~2%) after prior high years. (World Bank; IMF)

Banking Stability - State-dominated and shallow, with high NPLs and crowded-out private credit. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - A major gas exporter (a key European supplier) but a ~95%-hydrocarbon rentier with failed diversification and a statist economy - a classic resource curse. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.32 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -3.32 │ 60% │

│ long │ -3.32 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Military-dominated, opaque, and corruption-ridden, with a poor and worsening press environment. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 90% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Military-dominated, with weak judicial independence, opaque decision-making, and rampant corruption. (Freedom House)

Statistical Integrity - Opaque and state-controlled, with the IMF reconstructing the fiscals. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - Bloated, statist, and oil-funded, with bureaucratic obstacles. (Freedom House; IMF)

Press Freedom - RSF ~139/180 and falling, with journalists detained and a Hirak-era crackdown. (RSF; CPJ; Amnesty)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.91 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -4.91 │ 59% │

│ long │ -4.91 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Suppressed stability and restricted liberties, with migrant expulsions and a youth strain. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 90% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 85% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A military-backed power structure with a figurehead civilian president (re-elected 2024 on low turnout) and the 2019 Hirak movement suppressed - managed/suppressed stability. (Freedom House)

Civil Liberties - Restricted, with curbs on protest, association, and press and prosecutions of social-media users. (Freedom House; HRW)

Treatment Non Citizens - A transit country with mass desert expulsions of sub-Saharan migrants, racial profiling, and no real route. (HRW; Amnesty)

Social Cohesion - Managed, with Amazigh/Kabyle tensions and youth alienation. (Freedom House)

Demographics - Young and fast-growing - a severe jobs/housing/water strain with high youth unemployment. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.50 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.50 │ 60% │

│ long │ -4.50 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A transactional, Russia-arms-dependent hedger with an acute Morocco rivalry and capital controls. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Non-aligned and Russia-arms-dependent with an anti-Western tilt, yet a key EU gas supplier - transactional and hedged. (ICG)

Conflict Involvement - No direct war but an acute Morocco rivalry (severed ties, a closed border) and Sahel/Mali spillover. (ICG)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Unsanctioned but with heavy FX/capital controls and a statist economy. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.20 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -3.20 │ 60% │

│ long │ -3.20 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Severe water/heat and wildfire exposure, against relatively low violent crime. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 65% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 60% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Severe water stress, extreme heat, Saharan aridity, but oil-funded readiness above the Sahel. (ND-GAIN; WB MENA)

Healthcare - A state system that is uneven and underfunded relative to oil wealth. (Freedom House)

Infrastructure - Oil-funded but inefficient, with housing shortages and water-cut protests. (IEA; Euronews)

Crime Safety - Relatively low violent crime - a relative strength. (independent)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration against seismic (north) and flood exposure. (ThinkHazard)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.10 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -2.20 │ 60% │

│ long │ -2.30 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -4.07 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -3.70 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -3.68 │ 60% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -4.04 │ -4.05 │ -4.07 │

│ Assets │ -3.69 │ -3.70 │ -3.71 │

│ Currency │ -3.68 │ -3.68 │ -3.68 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘