- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV/EFF, World Bank, IDB, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem, ACLED) + Ecuadorian official (INEC, the finance ministry) + Ecuadorian/Spanish-language press (El Universo, Primicias, GK).

- Ecuador is fully DOLLARIZED (it uses the US dollar) - it has no sovereign monetary policy, which anchors stability and low inflation but removes the devaluation lever; assets carry no local-currency devaluation risk.

- Standout drags: a catastrophic security collapse (a declared internal armed conflict against cartels), weak/narco-infiltrated rule of law, and an energy crisis; genuine offsets are dollar-stability, low inflation, and an open economy. Source-lean: MODERATE Anglophone; Spanish primary sources under-read.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: mixed - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.75 (TIER_CAP.mixed).

Partial observability: official data is unreliable, but independent reporting still gets the truth out. Confidence is capped accordingly.

Dollar-anchored stability and low inflation, against high financing needs, oil dependence, and an energy crisis. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 90% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - High financing needs and oil-revenue dependence under an IMF program, with a deficit overshooting target but reforms attempted. (IMF CR 25/199)

Monetary Independence - Fully dollarized - no devalue/print lever and imported US policy (a loss of autonomy), but a credible discipline/stability anchor that removes the classic FX-crisis channel. (IMF; BCE)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - It uses the US dollar itself, so cash and local assets carry no local-currency devaluation risk - a real safety feature. (definitional; BCE)

Inflation - Low (~2%), an imported dollar-stability strength. (INEC; IMF)

Banking Stability - Reasonably sound and devaluation-insulated by dollarisation, but with no lender of last resort and thin reserves. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Oil plus diversifying shrimp/cocoa/banana exports, against structural oil-output decline and a 2024 drought-driven electricity crisis. (BCE; OilPrice)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.51 │ 74% │

│ mid │ +0.51 │ 74% │

│ long │ +0.51 │ 74% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Usable statistics, against a weak, narco-infiltrated rule of law and a threatened press. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Weak and deteriorating, with narco-infiltration of the justice system and corruption. (WJP; TI)

Statistical Integrity - Official statistics are usable and published, with some politicisation risk. (INEC; BCE)

Civil Service Capacity - Weak and unstable, with thin state presence in contested coastal provinces. (World Bank; IMF)

Press Freedom - Legally free but with journalists killed and exiled under cartel and state threats. (RSF 2025/2026)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.77 │ 68% │

│ mid │ -2.77 │ 68% │

│ long │ -2.77 │ 68% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Lawful migration handling, against political volatility, militarised-security strain, and deep cleavages. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 78% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - President Noboa faces an active recall threat: the CNE set July 17 and July 28 deadlines to rule on two presidential-recall petitions (July 9) as his approval fell from 41% to 27% in six months, with protests called for July 8/11/15; the Presidency moved to archive the second petition as 'unconstitutional' (El Diario, Primicias, El Comercio - independent). Worsened -4 -> -5; confidence held.

Civil Liberties - HELD at -4. Human Rights Watch reported on Aug 27 that Ecuador's new adoption law entrenches discriminatory provisions against lesbian, gay and bisexual prospective parents. An independent NGO primary report on a discrete statutory provision supports the note and the standing level; it does not by itself justify a step at this score.

Treatment Non Citizens - Lawful routes that absorbed large Venezuelan migration, with support eroding. (IOM)

Social Cohesion - High inequality, recurrent indigenous-movement strikes, and coast-sierra divides. (World Bank)

Demographics - Still relatively young, with falling fertility and emigration pressure. (INEC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.45 │ 72% │

│ mid │ -2.45 │ 72% │

│ long │ -2.45 │ 72% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An open, US-aligned posture, dominated by an internal-security war. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Pragmatic and pro-US on security cooperation. (press)

Conflict Involvement - A declared internal armed conflict against cartels - an active internal-security war. (government decree; ACLED)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Open, dollarized, unsanctioned, with no capital controls. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -0.36 │ 73% │

│ mid │ -0.36 │ 73% │

│ long │ -0.36 │ 73% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Seismic and climate exposure, a weak health system, an energy crisis, and a catastrophic crime collapse. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 75% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 85% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Andean glacier/water loss plus strong-ENSO flooding plus Galapagos exposure, low readiness. (ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - A weak, uneven public system with drug/equipment shortages and long waits. (Frontiers 2025)

Infrastructure - The 2024 nationwide electricity crisis was a major structural drag despite 2025 easing; roads are mixed. (Al Jazeera)

Crime Safety - A catastrophic collapse - a homicide rate that exploded to among the region's highest amid cartel and prison wars, having become a cocaine-trafficking hub. (National Police; InSight Crime)

Disaster Insurance - Low penetration against severe seismic/flood exposure. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.71 │ 70% │

│ mid │ -4.81 │ 70% │

│ long │ -4.91 │ 70% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -2.36 │ 71% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ -1.22 │ 72% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ -0.39 │ 72% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -2.33 │ -2.34 │ -2.36 │

│ Assets │ -1.21 │ -1.22 │ -1.23 │

│ Currency │ -0.39 │ -0.39 │ -0.39 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘