- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: rebuilt from independent sources (HRW, Amnesty, UN, RSF, Freedom House, World Bank/AfDB, ICG) + exile/international press; Eritrean state media EXCLUDED.

- Data limitation: among the most opaque states on earth - most economic and social statistics are external estimates flagged 'insufficient reliable data', and confidence is heavily reduced.

- Standout drags: one of the world's most closed/repressive states (no elections since independence, indefinite conscription the UN calls 'enslavement', RSF last globally at 180th), with acute renewed-war risk with Ethiopia; near-term totalitarian stability masks long-run brittleness.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A closed, opaque command economy - mining-led but debt-laden and largely insufficient reliable data. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 45% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 45% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 40% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 40% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 50% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Extreme opacity; mining supports revenue but the World Bank estimated public debt ~211% of GDP in 2024, with its lending frozen by arrears. (World Bank/AfDB)

Monetary Independence - A tightly state-controlled regime with a fixed peg (~15 ERN/USD) and capital controls - rigid and non-convertible. (AfDB; US State Dept)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The nakfa is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - The fixed peg and administered prices nominally contain inflation, but data is opaque with a parallel-market premium - insufficient reliable data. (FocusEconomics; AfDB)

Banking Stability - A wholly state-controlled banking sector, largely cut off internationally - stability is administrative, not market-tested. (US State Dept; AfDB)

Trade Actions Capacity - A narrow mining-led export base (Bisha; Colluli potash ~2027), heavily reliant on Chinese partners, within an autarkic economy. (AfDB; bne IntelliNews)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -3.28 │ 47% │

│ mid │ -3.28 │ 47% │

│ long │ -3.28 │ 47% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

No constitution, no judicial independence, near-total data opacity, and the world's worst press environment. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 75% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 50% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 40% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 50% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘

Rule Of Law - No functioning constitution, no independent judiciary, with arbitrary indefinite detention and enforced disappearances. (HRW 2025; Global R2P)

Statistical Integrity - Extreme opacity - few credible official statistics, so figures are low-confidence external estimates. (World Bank/AfDB)

Civil Service Capacity - A centralized PFDJ party-state that delivers some basic services but is repressive, opaque, and conscription-distorted. (AfDB; HRW)

Press Freedom - Ranked last globally (180th) on RSF 2025 - an information desert with no independent media and the world's longest journalist detentions. (RSF 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are constitutionally or practically an instrument of a ruling party or a personalist ruler. Civilian control exists in form. Professional insulation from politics does not exist at all. Loyalty purges are therefore an available tool.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -7.60 │ 52% │

│ mid │ -7.60 │ 52% │

│ long │ -7.60 │ 52% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Totalitarian near-term stability over a society hollowed by conscription and emigration. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 55% │ -2.0 │ -4.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │ -10.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 40% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 45% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 55% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘

Political Stability - Highly stable near-term via totalitarian control, but brittle long-term - a personalist regime with no succession plan, mass emigration, and renewed-war risk. (HRW; ICG)

Civil Liberties - Among the world's most repressive - no free expression/religion/assembly/movement, and indefinite conscription as forced labour. (HRW 2025; Amnesty; UN)

Treatment Non Citizens - Hosts only a small number of refugees, with no national asylum framework - overwhelmingly a refugee-producing state. (UNHCR)

Social Cohesion - Enforced national unity under a security state suppresses overt fracture, but conscription and emigration hollow out society. (HRW)

Demographics - A severe demographic drain - roughly 15% of the population has fled, draining working-age youth via conscription. (HRW 2025; UNHCR)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.12 │ 51% │

│ mid │ -5.77 │ 51% │

│ long │ -6.42 │ 51% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

An isolationist, unpredictable actor with acute renewed-war risk with Ethiopia. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 68% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 50% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A deliberately isolationist, unpredictable actor - relations with Ethiopia have swung from 2018 rapprochement to acute hostility, with few reliable alliances. (ICG; Foreign Policy 2025)

Conflict Involvement - Eritrea mobilized along the Ethiopian border (as of July 8), framed as a response to Ethiopia's Red Sea/Assab access push - a sharp bilateral war-risk escalation, not yet a realized outbreak (African Security Analysis, APAnews - independent; both sides' mobilization claims cross-flagged). Worsened -7 -> -8; confidence up.

Sanctions Capital Controls - Strict capital controls and a non-convertible currency, with targeted Western measures and broad isolation. (US State Dept; HRW)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -6.14 │ 56% │

│ mid │ -6.14 │ 56% │

│ long │ -6.14 │ 56% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Arid and underdeveloped, with most indicators unverifiable. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 62% │ -6.0 │ -6.50 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 45% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 45% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 40% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 40% │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │ -7.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - ND-GAIN bottom band - Horn drought, extreme heat, desertification, near-zero readiness under isolation. (ND-GAIN)

Healthcare - Some external estimates note basic-indicator progress, but the system is under-resourced and data unverifiable. (AfDB; WHO-cited) - low confidence

Infrastructure - Underdeveloped with chronic power/water shortfalls and some Chinese-linked mining/road investment. (AfDB; US State Dept) - limited data

Crime Safety - Low ordinary crime under pervasive security control, but offset by arbitrary-detention/state-coercion risk. (HRW) - limited data

Disaster Insurance - A negligible state-controlled market with no meaningful private insurance. (inference) - insufficient data

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -5.26 │ 47% │

│ mid │ -5.39 │ 47% │

│ long │ -5.52 │ 47% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -6.27 │ 50% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -5.33 │ 50% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -4.77 │ 50% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -5.84 │ -6.05 │ -6.27 │

│ Assets │ -5.26 │ -5.33 │ -5.41 │

│ Currency │ -4.77 │ -4.80 │ -4.83 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘