- Live-data refresh (2026-07-30): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-21 -> 07-30 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent and single-source claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the 10-day ceasefire proposal was never accepted - a de facto US strike pause (July 25-29, Oman presenting a Gulf-backed Hormuz fee mechanism, Brent $94 -> $86) collapsed and CENTCOM resumed heavy strikes on Iran overnight July 29-30 (Brent back to $90.74). The war widened: a drone set fires in Egypt's Damietta port (first strike on Egyptian soil), the US and Saudi Arabia jointly struck militias inside Iraq, the Houthis set Aramco's Jizan refinery ablaze while enforcing their blockade of Saudi ports, and Iran publicly hanged two protesters. Elsewhere: a hawkish Fed hold with three dissents FOR a hike sent the Dow down 1,153 and the 30-year Treasury to its highest since 2007; the EU adopted its 21st Russia package freezing the oil price cap at $44.10 for a year; a Russian Kh-101 crashed 100 km inside Poland with Warsaw declining to invoke Article 4; DRC Ebola deaths jumped from 930 to 1,487 in six days; Tunisia's and Libya's blackout crises turned into anti-government mobilization; Bank Indonesia's governor resigned in a central-bank-independence shock; Ghana exited high debt distress after 13 years; Peru completed a contested but on-schedule transfer of power. CORRECTIONS: the Thailand-Cambodia 'fresh clashes' carry-forward was again misdated 2025 coverage (ceasefire holds; the real story is diplomatic hardening), and Mali's 07-20 'Anefis reversal' framing is corrected (the army retook Anefis July 10; the road remains insecure). Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-20): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-14 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran war DEEPENED rather than broke pattern - the US naval blockade of Iranian ports held all window, OFAC's wind-down GL X1 EXPIRED July 17 (full Iran oil sanctions restored), the US combat death toll rose to 17 (430+ wounded) after Iran hit Jordan's Muwaffaq Salti air base July 17, and the US ran a ninth consecutive night of strikes (incl. the Darkhovin nuclear-plant site, IAEA reviewing). Iran's retaliation crossed a threshold: it struck Kuwait's power + desalination plant twice (first civilian-infrastructure targeting) and Iraqi Kurdistan oil fields (-140-150k bpd), and on July 20 the Houthis opened a new front with a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia (ending the 2022 truce). Brent ran to ~$88-90; Hormuz war-risk hull premiums held at 3-10% of value. Secondary: the EU FROZE the $44.10 Russia oil cap for one week to July 23 (the prior pass's lapse risk did NOT materialize - held, not scored as relief) with the 21st sanctions package still stalled (a narrow Kyiv-strike mini-package adopted July 17 instead); Russia's MOEX hit a 17-week losing streak (worst since 1997), the deficit overshot plan by ~1T rubles and the ruble slid ~8%/mo to ~78.6; Ukraine's Kerch Strait / Don-Azov shipping halt PERSISTED with no reopening as Russia hit Kyiv with a 41-missile barrage July 19; the Poland-Ukraine White Eagle rift DE-ESCALATED (Zelensky opened SBU archives July 17, Tusk welcomed it); Andy Burnham became UK PM July 20 (7th in a decade but a clean handover, dropped digital ID); Israel's Knesset dissolved on schedule July 17 (Oct 27 elections) after a judicial-oversight/media legislative blitz; China's Q2 GDP printed 4.3% (weakest since 2022); India's rupee broke past its defense band to ~96.4; deadly monsoon flooding hit Pakistan, India, Bangladesh and Nepal; Nicaragua's Ortega declared no more elections; Cuba logged its 5th total grid collapse of 2026; Venezuela's quake toll passed 5,200; DRC's Ebola became the fastest-growing month-on-month; Mali's JNIM/FLA reversed the Anefis gain; Morocco released journalist Ali Lmrabet; a M7.4 quake struck the Mexico-Guatemala border. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-14): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-11 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire cycle BROKE PATTERN into the war's largest escalation - a third consecutive night of US strikes across Iran, Iranian retaliation on six Gulf/Levant states (Al Udeid struck; two UAE-flagged tankers hit in Omani waters, one sailor killed) and on US facilities in Bahrain/Kuwait, and a reinstated US naval blockade of Iranian ports (effective July 14) plus a proposed 20% Hormuz transit toll the UN IMO calls legally baseless; Brent jumped ~9% to ~$86 and Hormuz traffic virtually halted (war-risk ~5% of hull). Iran conflict near -8 -> -9 (not floored; talks nominally alive, positive skew retained) and sanctions -9 -> -10 (blockade = maximal isolation); Gulf conflict/trade re-priced across the GCC + Jordan; the US moves as a belligerent (conflict near -4 -> -5) with alliance reliability -7 -> -8 after renewed Greenland-annexation rhetoric + a threatened troop pull-out from Europe. Secondary: EU accession Cluster 6 FORMALLY OPENED for Ukraine + Moldova July 14 alongside the 37-leader Paris coalition summit (SAMP/T + 16 Rafale), but the EU's 21st Russia sanctions package FAILED July 13 (Greek LNG + Austrian Raiffeisen objections) with the $44.10 oil cap set to lapse (not scored as lapsed); Russia halted Kerch Strait + Don-Azov Canal shipping under Ukraine's Azov drone campaign while ~350 drones hit the Moscow region and the 5-month deficit passed 6T rubles; a Poland-Ukraine rift (White Eagle affair) opened; Colombia's transition rupture escalated to the inauguration venue itself; Venezuela's Article-233 180-day cap passed unmet (quake toll past 4,490); US June CPI 3.5% y/y (BLS partially-entangled, market-corroborated) as the DC National Guard deployment was extended through 2029; Pakistan's Balochistan wave killed 42+; Vanke's board passed to Shenzhen state control; North Korea fired ~10 ballistic missiles; South Africa's deportations doubled to 53,449; DRC's Ebola outbreak became the 3rd-largest on record; Bukele was proclaimed a 2027 candidate under indefinite-reelection rules; Jamaica's homicides fell 22%. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: triangulated across multilateral bodies (IMF Article IV May-2026, OECD, Eurostat, RSF, Transparency International, Venice Commission) + Spanish official sources (INE, Banco de España, AIReF, Ministerio del Interior) + Spanish/Catalan independent press (El País, elDiario, elEspañol, Catalan News).

- Source-lean: mild Anglophone amplification on the NATO-5% and anti-tourism stories; Spanish-language sources confirmed the underlying facts with less alarm. Slant balance adequate.

- Climate (water stress + fast warming) and a fragile minority government are the standout long-term drags.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A strong growth story - record tourism, a widening current-account surplus, sound banks - within the eurozone; a high (if falling) debt load is the structural drag. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +1.0 │ 0.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 75% │ -1.0 │ +0.50 │ +2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 78% │ +3.0 │ +2.50 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Debt ~100.6% GDP (falling toward ~99%); deficit ~2.4%, a sixth straight beat and a first primary surplus since 2007; but ageing-cost pressure and no budget passed since 2023. (IMF Art IV May-2026, Banco de España, AIReF)

Monetary Independence - Eurozone - ECB-set, credible and independent, no domestic interference. (ECB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Eurozone member; the euro is the #2 global reserve currency, a modest shared benefit. (IMF COFER)

Inflation - HICP projected up to ~3% end-2026 on an energy shock, back to ~2.2% in 2027; near-term overshoot, well-managed under the ECB. (IMF, EC, Banco de España)

Banking Stability - CET1 ~13.5%, ROE ~14.1%, NPL ~2.9% and falling; BBVA-Sabadell consolidation; a windfall tax is a margin drag, not a stability risk. (Banco de España FSR, IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Record tourism (~97M arrivals) and a widening current-account surplus with strong non-tourism services exports; stable trade policy; no resource curse; an anti-tourism backlash is a mild long-term cap. (INE, CaixaBank/BBVA Research)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.46 │ 81% │

│ mid │ +2.33 │ 81% │

│ long │ +2.20 │ 81% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Solid courts and independent statistics, eroding on judicial-appointment politicization and press pressure. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 80% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - David Sanchez, brother of PM Pedro Sanchez, was convicted July 14 of administrative misconduct/nepotism and banned from public office for 9 years, atop ongoing charges against the PM's wife (travel-banned June 21) and a former aide's 24-year corruption sentence (Reuters via US News, NBC - independent). The judiciary is functioning (prosecutions reach the PM's own family) even as the corruption pattern around the government widens: held at 0; confidence held.

Statistical Integrity - INE is independent and Eurostat-compliant; AIReF is a credible fiscal watchdog; no documented interference. (Eurostat, AIReF)

Civil Service Capacity - Competent professional bureaucracy; regional fragmentation and primary-care/registry staffing gaps. (OECD, WHO)

Press Freedom - RSF 23rd (2025) slipping to 29th (2026); SLAPPs, political pressure, and high ownership concentration. (RSF)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, backed by tested parliamentary oversight and a long unbroken record of apolitical command.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.17 │ 77% │

│ mid │ +3.17 │ 77% │

│ long │ +3.17 │ 77% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

The weakest category: a fragile minority government and a housing/cohesion strain, against strong civil liberties. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 78% │ -3.0 │ -2.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 72% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +1.0 │ -1.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A PSOE minority that lost a key partner's support, no budget since 2023, serial corruption probes, and early-election pressure; institutions remain peaceful. (El País, Freedom House)

Civil Liberties - Strong speech/assembly/due process; a 'gag law' reform pending; protest space robust. (Freedom House, V-Dem)

Treatment Non Citizens - Lawful, durable pathways (non-lucrative visa, the 2023 digital-nomad visa, EU Blue Card); citizenship after 10 years (2 for Ibero-Americans); the Golden Visa was abolished April 2025, narrowing the wealth route, but core residency paths and 2025 regularization momentum remain. (immigration bar, gov sources)

Social Cohesion - Catalan secession tension eased materially post-amnesty, but a housing-affordability crisis and anti-tourism protests are the new fault line. (Catalan News, Euronews)

Demographics - Fertility ~1.2 (among the world's lowest); 65+ heading toward ~30% by 2055; population still grows only via immigration; near-term migration cushions, long-term ageing is locked in. (INE projections, Elcano)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.16 │ 77% │

│ mid │ +0.25 │ 77% │

│ long │ +0.35 │ 77% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

NATO/EU anchored and geographically insulated; alliance reliability dinged by the defense-spending refusal. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 78% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A committed NATO/EU member, but the only ally to refuse the 5% target (capped ~2.1%), drawing US retaliation threats and some sidelining from key Ukraine talks - a credibility ding, not a rupture. (Atlantic Council, NATO)

Conflict Involvement - No active conflict; geographically insulated; only African-coast migration friction. (multilateral)

Sanctions Capital Controls - EU sanctions regime; no capital controls; full financial integration. (EU)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.96 │ 79% │

│ mid │ +2.96 │ 79% │

│ long │ +2.96 │ 79% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Strong healthcare, low crime, and a functioning catastrophe-insurance backstop, against acute climate/water stress and a grid-reliability flag. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.50 │ -6.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 85% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Held at near -5 with confidence up: one of Spain's largest fires ever burned 111,000+ acres near Madrid (started July 20, ~63,000 evacuated, ~50,000 affected across 10+ communities), total Spanish burn ~190,000 acres with ~330,000 evacuated France+Spain combined, as the fourth heatwave of the summer (>40C) began July 28; one major blaze was brought under control July 30 (AP, Reuters, CNN, Euronews - wire). The score already encodes severe Iberian exposure; this season confirms it. Long held -6.

Healthcare - Universal coverage, low preventable/treatable mortality, high system trust, long life expectancy (~84); a primary-care staffing deficit and regional strain. (OECD/EU Health Profile 2025, WHO)

Infrastructure - Excellent high-speed rail, ports, and broadband; but the April-2025 nationwide blackout and grid-investment lag are real reliability flags. (INE, The Conversation)

Crime Safety - Homicide ~0.64/100k (among Europe's lowest), stable/falling; petty theft concentrated in tourist cities. (Ministerio del Interior, Eurostat)

Disaster Insurance - The Oct-2024 DANA (Valencia, EUR 20B+ losses) was the public Consorcio's largest-ever event yet it functioned, paying claims at scale - a genuine mutualized backstop against rising flood risk. (Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros, S&P)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.93 │ 81% │

│ mid │ +1.82 │ 81% │

│ long │ +1.72 │ 81% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +1.95 │ 78% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +2.37 │ 79% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +2.56 │ 80% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +1.97 │ +1.96 │ +1.95 │

│ Assets │ +2.43 │ +2.37 │ +2.32 │

│ Currency │ +2.56 │ +2.49 │ +2.41 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘