- Live-data refresh (2026-09-03): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-25 -> 09-03 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war RESUMED and WIDENED after the Aug 25 exit-diplomacy moment. Iran and Oman finalized a Hormuz corridor framework (Aug 26, inbound via Iranian waters, outbound via Omani, revenue-sharing, a 30-60 day mine-clearing programme), then the US struck missile launchers on Larak Island (Aug 31) and Iran retaliated across FIVE countries at once, hitting US-linked bases in Jordan (Camp Titin, Prince Hassan), Bahrain (Sheikh Isa), Kuwait (Ali al-Salem) and Iraq (Erbil). A US strike hit a wedding at Kuhestak, Iran alleged a war crime at the UN, and Iran struck the Saudi supertanker Sidr in Hormuz, killing two Filipino sailors. Trump claimed 'almost total control' of the strait, floated renaming it, and told Iranians to rise up against their leadership. The rial hit a fresh record past 2.1 million per dollar and Reuters reported the blockade achieving what sanctions never did, with exports stalled outright. Second arc: a global long-bond rout deepened into September. Japan's 10Y JGB crossed 3% for the first time in 30 years with the 30Y at a record 4.18% and the yen at 160; France sold 10Y OATs at 4.23%, the highest since 2008, with debt at 117.5% of GDP; UK gilt yields hit a 19-year high in the new Burnham government's first Commons week; the US crossed $40 trillion in debt and doubled its long-end buyback ceiling. Third arc: catastrophe and consolidation elsewhere. A glacier-collapse flood on the Nepal-Tibet border killed 1,252 by Sept 3, passing the 2015 earthquake toll, with thousands missing. DRC's Ebola outbreak reached 3,007 deaths and 6,186 cases across six provinces at a 48.6% fatality rate, still expanding. Nicaragua's congress barred opposition parties from elections and extended the presidential term, drawing a near-unanimous OAS rebuke; Zimbabwe swore in senators and appointed 14 judges under a contested constitutional amendment; Zambia's Hichilema took a second term amid a disputed count and opposition arrests. Syria's SDF dissolved into the national military. Indonesia closed its central-bank vacuum. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: Peru's February 'Chifagate' removal, France's October-2025 Lecornu resignation, a 2020 Belarus protest piece, a 2025 DRC Uvira piece, a 2019 Zimbabwe crackdown piece, pre-window Cuba, and a FOURTH clean Thailand-Cambodia verification. CORRECTION: Serbia's Aug 20 snap-election announcement, missed by the 08-25 pass, is booked late. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV, EC, Eurostat, WJP, RSF, TI) + Estonian official (Statistics Estonia, Bank of Estonia) + Estonian independent press (ERR).

- A top-tier-institution, digital-government-leading EU/eurozone NATO frontline state; the dominant tail is frontline exposure to the Russia-Ukraine war, atop a 2023-25 recession.

- Standout features: world-leading digital governance, the EU's lowest debt, top-2 press freedom, against a Russia-border war tail, a Russian-minority cleavage, and demographic decline. Source-lean: MODERATE Anglophone on the threat narrative.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

The EU's lowest debt and a digital-tech base, against a multi-year recession and a defense-driven rising deficit. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +1.0 │ 0.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 78% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +2.0 │ +3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - The EU's lowest debt (~24% GDP) but rising fast toward ~31% by 2028 on a record deficit from 5%+ defence and tax changes. (IMF Art IV 2025; Bank of Estonia)

Monetary Independence - Eurozone, pooled at the credible ECB. (ECB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The euro, the world's second reserve currency. (IMF COFER)

Inflation - Eased from a 2022-23 spike but still elevated (~4.8% in 2025) with a 2025 VAT hike. (Eurostat; Statistics Estonia)

Banking Stability - Sound, well-capitalised, and Nordic-owned, with profits down but stable. (Bank of Estonia; ERR)

Trade Actions Capacity - A digital/tech leader (the most startups per capita, e-Estonia), EU-integrated; the lost Russia market and recession-hit but recovering. (OECD)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.41 │ 82% │

│ mid │ +2.33 │ 82% │

│ long │ +2.25 │ 82% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Top-tier across the board - world-leading digital government and top-2 press freedom. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Top-tier EU, with strong judicial independence. (WJP 2025)

Statistical Integrity - Statistics Estonia is independent and excellent. (EC; WJP)

Civil Service Capacity - World-leading digital government (X-Road, e-gov), with a high corruption standing. (TI CPI 2025)

Press Freedom - RSF ~#2 globally, its highest ever. (RSF 2025)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, backed by tested parliamentary oversight and a long unbroken record of apolitical command.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +7.59 │ 84% │

│ mid │ +7.59 │ 84% │

│ long │ +7.59 │ 84% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A stable democracy with very strong liberties, against a Russian-minority cleavage and demographic decline. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 82% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 78% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 72% │ +3.0 │ +2.50 │ +2.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 85% │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A stable EU democracy, orderly, with a strong anti-Russia consensus. (ERR)

Civil Liberties - Very strong and EU-protected. (WJP; RSF)

Treatment Non Citizens - EU-lawful, but with a large Russian-speaking minority, a legacy stateless 'grey-passport' population, and a 2025 amendment disenfranchising Russian/Belarusian citizens from local votes. (Verfassungsblog; ConstitutionNet)

Social Cohesion - Cohesive but with a persistent, security-sharpened Russian-minority cleavage. (ERR)

Demographics - Very low fertility (~1.16), ageing, and a population that has shrunk for two years. (Statistics Estonia)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.30 │ 79% │

│ mid │ +2.12 │ 79% │

│ long │ +1.94 │ 79% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Top-tier alliance value, squarely offset by frontline war exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -6.0 │ -5.50 │ -5.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A NATO/EU frontline stalwart and top-5 defence spender, locked in near ~5.4% of GDP. (NATO)

Conflict Involvement - Worsened near -5 -> -6: NATO F-16s stationed in Estonia scrambled on Sept 1 after drones flew close to and one crossed the Russia-Estonia border into Estonian airspace (Stars and Stripes). A violated NATO border requiring an alert launch is a step beyond the ambient threat environment already priced. Long held -5.

Sanctions Capital Controls - An EU regime with an open capital account. (EC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.45 │ 83% │

│ mid │ +1.62 │ 83% │

│ long │ +1.79 │ 83% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Excellent digital infrastructure and low crime, with low catastrophe exposure. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +4.0 │ +3.50 │ +3.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 78% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 78% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - A Baltic high-latitude winner near/mid-term (longer growing season, milder winters, strong readiness), with the benefit easing long-term (AMOC/Baltic-variability tail). (ND-GAIN; Burke et al.)

Healthcare - Universal and world-leading on digital health. (EC; e-Estonia)

Infrastructure - Excellent digital, with the Feb-2025 Baltic grid desync from Russia a resilience gain (residual sabotage risk). (ERR)

Crime Safety - Low - a strength. (Statistics Estonia)

Disaster Insurance - Low catastrophe exposure, insurable. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.18 │ 76% │

│ mid │ +5.09 │ 76% │

│ long │ +5.0 │ 76% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +4.46 │ 81% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +3.80 │ 82% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +3.31 │ 83% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +4.59 │ +4.53 │ +4.46 │

│ Assets │ +3.84 │ +3.80 │ +3.77 │

│ Currency │ +3.31 │ +3.28 │ +3.25 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘