- Live-data refresh (2026-09-19): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-09-08 -> 09-19 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the US-Iran war widened to a second maritime chokepoint as Houthis seized Mocha, Perim and Mayun, declared a Red Sea blockade on Saudi ports, and Iraqi drones shut Saudi Arabia's East-West Petroline, while Iran struck more tankers in Hormuz, the IAEA referred Iran to the UN Security Council, and Brent traded above $100. Second arc: the global tightening cycle landed, with the Fed hiking 25bp to 3.75-4.00%, the ECB to 2.50% on Sept 10, and the BOJ to 1.25% on Sept 18, all on war-driven energy inflation. Third arc: institutional strain, as Georgia moved to ban all five parliamentary opposition parties, Sudan's chemical-weapons dossier was published by NYT/WaPo, Brazil's STF froze the Moraes probe, and Cuba's grid collapsed nationwide Sept 18. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-25): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-08-14 -> 08-25 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central; WebSearch budget exhausted mid-pass, central verification via self-hosted SearXNG + targeted fetches), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and recirculated claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war entered an economic-strangulation phase even as exit diplomacy advanced. The US launched the global secondary-sanctions campaign 'Operation Economic Outcast' (Aug 24, 60+ designations, all-sector scope); Iran's crude exports effectively halted (Kharg Island berths empty since July 31, satellite-verified; China-bound imports ~823k -> ~534k bpd); the rial crossed 2 million per dollar; Iran fired its first ballistic missiles toward the UAE (Aug 18) and the UAE, Iran's second-largest trade partner, cut ALL trade indefinitely (Aug 19). Yet no US strike on Iranian soil was confirmed in-window and Iran-Oman Hormuz-corridor talks reached joint-statement drafting in Tehran (Aug 25). A global long-bond rout (Aug 18) set multi-decade records (UK 50Y 5.392%; JGB 10Y highest since 1996); the US Treasury doubled long-end buybacks (Aug 19), the Fed-independence fight reopened (Cook removal deadline Aug 26), and DXY hit a 3-month low with gold at a 3-month high. US-Canada trade talks collapsed (Aug 21), first-ever Section 338 tariffs took effect (Aug 22), and Canada announced dollar-for-dollar retaliation (eff. Sept 8). Ukrainian strikes took >90% of Russia's Black Sea grain export capacity offline and Russian inflation crossed 10%. DRC Ebola deaths reached 2,642 (PHEIC reaffirmed) while Geneva produced an M23 peace-talks roadmap. Pakistan's KP floods killed 368 in five days and Islamabad defied a Supreme Court order on Imran Khan. Venezuela freed 131 political prisoners. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the Sept-2025 Libya 'Sorman/Zawiya clashes' recirculation, Ghana's pre-window IMF completion run as fresh, Cuba's pre-window Aug 2-3 blackout, and a third clean Thailand-Cambodia verification (ceasefire holds, ASEAN observers verifying). CORRECTION: Serbia's June 27-30 Vucic resignation-pledge arc, missed while Serbia went unrefreshed since 05-28, is booked late as a note. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-08-14): discovery-first sweep of the 2026-07-30 -> 08-14 window (six parallel regional sweeps, all source rating central), triangulated across multilateral bodies and diverse independent press, with state, belligerent, single-chain and disinfo-network claims excluded or direction-only. Dominant arc: the Iran war paused without ending - no confirmed US strike on Iranian soil after Aug 1 (13 nights through Aug 12) while Oman-mediated Hormuz talks agreed safe-corridor coordinates with the fee rate still contested - but the strait stayed effectively closed (1 transit Aug 9 vs ~73/day), CENTCOM enforced the blockade kinetically, the Houthis hit Mocha in the worst Yemen escalation since the 2022 truce, and Saudi Red Sea exports collapsed ~90% with a compensating Sumed surge. Ukraine's deep strikes reached ~17% of Russian refining and halted Novorossiysk's grain terminals; Russia's H1 deficit hit ~6T rubles with the CBR cutting into rising inflation. The US opened a two-front trade escalation: first-ever Section 338 tariffs (50% on ~$20B of Canadian goods incl USMCA-origin, effective Aug 19) plus Section 301 tariffs on 60+ partners covering 99.4% of imports. The 30Y Treasury auctioned at ~5.24%, highest since 2001; central banks bought a record 288.9t of gold in Q2. DRC Ebola deaths jumped 1,487 -> 2,128 across six provinces. DC's National Guard deployment was extended through 2029. Colombia inaugurated de la Espriella in an orderly transfer; Indonesia nominated a BI insider and the rupiah recovered; North Korea resumed missile tests. TRAPS CAUGHT and excluded: the 2025 Katsina mosque attack, the pre-capture Maduro militia story, and the ended Jan-May Iran blackout, all recirculating as current; the news-pravda.com disinfo network is excluded entirely. Thailand-Cambodia verified clean: no kinetic event, ceasefire holds, diplomatic freeze continues. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-11): discovery-first news sweep since the 2026-07-07 pass across the whole canon, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded, used only for direction; confidence set from corroboration). Dominant arc: another turn of the US-Iran ceasefire CYCLE (announced and collapsing on ~weekly cadence, not a one-off) - Hormuz tanker strikes (July 7) -> OFAC REVOKED Iran General License X the same day (wind-down GL X1 to July 17), erasing the verified oil relief the last pass scored -> US strikes on ~80-90 Iranian sites incl the Bushehr perimeter (July 8-9, IAEA no radiation rise) -> Trump declared the ceasefire 'over' -> Iranian retaliation on Jordan/Kuwait/Bahrain/Qatar (July 9, GCC-condemned) -> talks resume. Iran near-term conflict deepens (near -7 -> -8, intermittent not floored) and the oil relief reverses (sanctions -8 -> -9); Gulf trade-chokepoint risk re-prices (Hormuz war-risk insurance ~5% of hull); Iran positive skew RETAINED because the talks keep resuming. Secondary: Russia's refining/fuel crisis deepened (diesel export ban July 8, now a fuel importer; MOEX 3-year low) vs Ukraine's Azov shadow-fleet strikes; NATO Ankara's 70bn-euro Ukraine pledge + EU Cluster-6 Coreper clearance (formal opening slated July 14) + Hungary's 10bn-euro RRP unlock; a European instability cluster (France Le Pen eligible for 2027, Germany AfD ahead of CDU, UK Farage by-election); Colombia's transition rupture (Petro rejects De la Espriella on debunked fraud claims); Syria's US state-sponsor-of-terrorism de-listing; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk mobilization; a UN genocide finding on Sudan's RSF; Venezuela's quake toll past 4,000 with the constitutional election-call unmet; Argentina's country risk at an 8-year low; South Korea's 'fake news' law; a stalled India-US trade deal; China's Vanke near-default + maritime coercion; and an IMF WEO cut to 3.0% global growth. Notes mark what moved.

- Live-data refresh (2026-07-07): news pull since the 2026-06-18 pass, triangulated across multilateral bodies + diverse independent press (state-self-reported data excluded). Dominant arc: the US-Iran ceasefire proved repeatedly reversible (remote MoU June 17 + 60-day Burgenstock roadmap June 21, then a Kiku-tanker strike -> US strikes on 5 Iranian sites -> Iranian retaliation on US bases in Kuwait/Bahrain June 27-28 -> fresh Saudi/Qatari tanker strikes July 7 -> Trump 'finish the job'), even as verified relief landed (OFAC General License X, a 60-day Iranian-oil-export waiver ~$8-9B) and Hormuz volumes recovered to ~90% of pre-war baseline. Iran's $24B/$12B frozen-asset claim stays Mehr/parliamentary-sourced and US-denied -> excluded. Secondary: Russia's refinery/fuel crisis + deficit blowout (160% of the annual target, exile-press sourced); Ukraine's EU-accession progress + NATO 140bn-euro pledge vs the deadliest Kyiv strikes of the year; Venezuela's twin quake + constitutional-legality shock; certified-but-contested elections in Peru (Fujimori) and Colombia (de la Espriella); Bolivia's blockade crisis easing under a state of emergency; US inflation topping 4% and SCOTUS striking the birthright-citizenship order while domestic-terrorism sentences and ICE-detention deaths mount; China's rare-earth coercion + HK Article 23 expansion; India's near-final US trade deal vs a press-freedom slide; an Ethiopia-Eritrea war-risk watch. Notes mark what moved.

- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF Art IV/ECF, World Bank, WJP, RSF, TI, V-Dem) + Ethiopian official (cautiously) + independent/international press (Addis Standard, Ethiopia Insight, Reuters) + HRW/Amnesty/ACLED.

- A genuine but fragile reform story (a 2024 currency float, an IMF program, GERD generating, disinflation) dominated by multiple active conflicts and an acute Eritrea war-risk.

- Standout drags: active insurgencies, ethnic-federal fragmentation, a reversed press opening, and an external war-risk; the demographic dividend is the main offset. Source-lean: independent/multilateral-heavy, skeptical of state framing.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: opaque - every composite below is confidence-capped at 0.60 (TIER_CAP.opaque).

The state controls the information environment, so scores rest on external proxies and carry a capped, lower confidence. The read may be flattered by what cannot be seen.

A fragile post-default reform (a float, an IMF program) against a low tax base, high inflation, and FX constraints. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 85% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 75% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Defaulted in 2023-24 and in IMF/World-Bank-backed restructuring with a low tax base, but reforming. (IMF CR 26/20; Addis Standard)

Monetary Independence - A July-2024 float eliminated the parallel premium, with inflation-targeting attempted from an FX-short, controlled base. (IMF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The birr is not held as reserves. (definitional)

Inflation - Down from 30%+ to ~11-12% but creeping back, with pre-election fiscal-loosening risk. (IMF; Reuters)

Banking Stability - State-dominated and opening to foreign entry, with thin/fragile reserves. (IMF)

Trade Actions Capacity - Coffee/agriculture and a state-led model with doubling goods exports and GERD hydropower upside, but FX-constrained and export-weak. (IMF; Horn Review)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.61 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -2.61 │ 60% │

│ long │ -2.61 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A conflict-disrupted, contested rule of law and a reversed press opening. (skew: negative)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 90% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Tigray effectively operates outside federal institutional control after the June elections excluded it (Addis Standard, Crisis Group - independent). Held at -6; confidence held.

Statistical Integrity - Opaque, with IMF-flagged data gaps and unmeasured conflict zones. (IMF)

Civil Service Capacity - A developmental-state ambition but weak and contested reach. (World Bank)

Press Freedom - RSF ~145/180 ('very serious'), the post-2018 opening reversed with detentions and restrictive 2025 media-law amendments. (RSF; HRW)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.78 │ 59% │

│ mid │ -4.78 │ 59% │

│ long │ -4.78 │ 59% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Multiple active insurgencies and ethnic-federal fragmentation, with a demographic dividend the offset. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 86% │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │ -8.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 85% │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │ -6.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Worsened -7 -> -8: OLA acknowledged a broader armed-groups alignment forming while distancing from one Fano faction (Kulu Media, MSN, Sept 15-18). Tulu Kapi gold project suspended after a deadly security incident (Kulu Media). Sudan accused Ethiopia of a hostile position amid rising cross-border tension (MSN, Sept 15). Al Jazeera Sept 5 reported Tigray detente remains fragile with key disputes unresolved. Confidence 0.85 -> 0.86.

Civil Liberties - The post-2018 thaw reversed, with detentions, conflict atrocities, and civic-space closure. (HRW; OMCT)

Treatment Non Citizens - A major refugee host, but not a relocation destination, with strained capacity. (UNHCR context)

Social Cohesion - Deep ethnic-federal cleavages and multiple active insurgencies. (HRW)

Demographics - Very large, young, and fast-growing - a dividend-or-strain double-edge. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.60 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.60 │ 60% │

│ long │ -4.60 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A pragmatic non-aligned posture, against internal insurgencies and an acute Eritrea war-risk. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │ -9.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 75% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - Non-aligned and a BRICS member, hedging the US, China, and the Gulf - pragmatic but unstable. (press)

Conflict Involvement - Held at -9: gunmen abducted three Ethiopian Red Cross workers in North Gondar (Aug 15); one was tortured and died of his injuries (Addis Standard, domestic independent, community-aligned flagged). Aid-worker targeting inside the daily Fano-ENDF fighting pattern the score carries.

Sanctions Capital Controls - FX controls easing under reform; not broadly sanctioned. (IMF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.05 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.05 │ 60% │

│ long │ -4.05 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A state infrastructure build-out undercut by conflict, weak healthcare, and drought/flood exposure. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 70% │ -6.0 │ -6.50 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 80% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 75% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - ND-GAIN bottom-25 - recurrent Horn drought plus deadly floods, a vast rain-fed population, low readiness. (ND-GAIN; WB)

Healthcare - Low spend, weak, and conflict-disrupted. (HRW)

Infrastructure - A state build-out (GERD now generating, rail, industrial parks) but with roughly half the population lacking electricity and conflict damage. (World Bank)

Crime Safety - Conflict-zone insecurity and regional kidnapping. (HRW)

Disaster Insurance - Negligible penetration against drought/flood exposure. (inference)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -4.50 │ 60% │

│ mid │ -4.60 │ 60% │

│ long │ -4.70 │ 60% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ -4.35 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Assets │ mid │ -3.76 │ 60% │ clear negative │

│ Currency │ near │ -3.36 │ 60% │ clear negative │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ -4.32 │ -4.33 │ -4.35 │

│ Assets │ -3.75 │ -3.76 │ -3.77 │

│ Currency │ -3.36 │ -3.36 │ -3.36 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘