- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral (IMF, OECD, Eurostat, WJP, RSF, TI) + Finnish official (Statistics Finland, Bank of Finland, Migri) + Finnish press (Yle).

- Standout drags: a fiscal deterioration / weak growth, a locked-in demographic decline, and a real Russia-border tail; the world's happiest country with top-tier institutions otherwise.

- Source-lean: moderate Anglophone on hybrid-threat and happiness framing; macro data from Finnish/multilateral primaries.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

Eurozone monetary credibility and sound banks, against a genuine fiscal/growth deterioration. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 85% │ -1.0 │ -1.50 │ -2.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 85% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ 0.0 │ +0.50 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - A widening deficit (~4.5% GDP) and debt approaching ~95% after a 2025 technical recession; the IMF warns of eroding debt-sustainability confidence. (IMF Art IV; Bank of Finland)

Monetary Independence - Eurozone - the ECB is credible and independent; no national control. (ECB)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - Eurozone member; the euro is the #2 global reserve currency, a modest shared benefit. (IMF COFER)

Inflation - HICP near the ECB target (~2.4%), with a contained early-2026 electricity spike. (ECB; Statistics Finland)

Banking Stability - A sound, well-capitalised Nordic system; the watch-item is wholesale-funding reliance and Nordic-Baltic interconnection. (IMF; Bank of Finland)

Trade Actions Capacity - Forestry/tech/machinery exports; the lost Russian market (absorbed) post-2022; stable policy, no resource curse. (OECD)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.06 │ 82% │

│ mid │ +2.02 │ 82% │

│ long │ +1.98 │ 82% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Among the world's strongest institutions - top-tier rule of law, statistics, civil service, and press freedom. (skew: symmetric)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 90% │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │ +8.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 65% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - WJP ~#3 globally; strong judicial independence. (WJP 2026)

Statistical Integrity - Statistics Finland is independent and uncompromised. (WJP; EC)

Civil Service Capacity - Professional, high-capacity (CPI #2 globally). (Transparency Intl 2025)

Press Freedom - RSF ~#6, top-tier, with a slight global-trend dip. (RSF 2026)

Civil-Military Relations - Settled civilian control over a professional officer corps, backed by tested parliamentary oversight and a long unbroken record of apolitical command.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +7.24 │ 84% │

│ mid │ +7.24 │ 84% │

│ long │ +7.24 │ 84% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

The world's happiest, highest-trust society, against labor unrest, a tightening migration stance, and a locked-in demographic decline. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 85% │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │ +7.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 80% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 75% │ +6.0 │ +4.50 │ +3.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 85% │ -3.0 │ -4.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Political Stability - A stable Orpo center-right coalition (thin majority), with recurring multi-sector strikes over labor/strike-law reform. (Yle)

Civil Liberties - Consistently among the freest, with strong protections. (WJP; RSF)

Treatment Non Citizens - A functional skilled path (EU Blue Card, specialist permits), but real 2024-26 tightening (higher pay floors, longer PR, a language test); work permits down. (Migri; TEM)

Social Cohesion - #1 World Happiness for years running with very high trust, but an immigration debate and youth-wellbeing decline pull the long horizon down. (World Happiness Report 2026)

Demographics - TFR ~1.26-1.3 (record-low band); the only Nordic with natural decrease - a locked-in long-term negative. (Statistics Finland)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +3.68 │ 81% │

│ mid │ +3.36 │ 81% │

│ long │ +3.05 │ 81% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A strong new NATO member with a real Russia-border/hybrid-threat tail. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 85% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 80% │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │ -4.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 85% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - A NATO member since 2023, with Forward Land Forces presence forming. (NATO)

Conflict Involvement - A ~1,340 km Russia border closed indefinitely, with instrumentalized-migration and GPS-jamming hybrid threats - a real elevated tail. (Finnish Interior Ministry; Yle)

Sanctions Capital Controls - EU regime, open capital account, no controls. (EC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.13 │ 83% │

│ mid │ +2.13 │ 83% │

│ long │ +2.13 │ 83% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Low climate exposure, excellent infrastructure, and very low crime; healthcare strong with access waits. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬───────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼───────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 75% │ +5.0 │ +4.50 │ +4.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 78% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 80% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 78% │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │ +6.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 70% │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │ +5.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴───────┴──────┘

Climate - Among the clearest net beneficiaries near/mid-term - far-northern, top readiness, agricultural/forestry and winter upside - but the gain is windowed and erodes past warming-optimum overshoot. (ND-GAIN; IPCC AR6; Burke et al.)

Healthcare - Universal and strong, but with access waits, a 2023 county-reform strain, and 2025 copay hikes. (THL; OECD)

Infrastructure - Excellent and reliable. (World Bank; OECD)

Crime Safety - Very low - a strength; a minor 2025 uptick off a low base. (Police/Statistics Finland)

Disaster Insurance - Low natural-catastrophe exposure; insurable. (World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +5.06 │ 77% │

│ mid │ +4.96 │ 77% │

│ long │ +4.86 │ 77% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬────────────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼────────────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +4.60 │ 81% │ clear positive │

│ Assets │ mid │ +3.78 │ 82% │ clear positive │

│ Currency │ near │ +3.20 │ 82% │ clear positive │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴────────────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +4.83 │ +4.72 │ +4.60 │

│ Assets │ +3.83 │ +3.78 │ +3.72 │

│ Currency │ +3.20 │ +3.16 │ +3.12 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘