- Generated 2026-05-28 under v2.0: multilateral + independent (IMF, World Bank, ADB, Freedom House, RSF, TI, Lowy, CRS) + international press; state media EXCLUDED on governance.

- The most developed and best-governed Melanesian state - the Dec 2022 election ended 16 years of Bainimarama/FijiFirst rule, and RSF rank leapt to 24th in 2026 after the 2023 media-law repeal.

- Standout features: the region's strongest institutions and a democratic/press-freedom restoration, against elevated debt (~80% of GDP), severe cyclone exposure, a fast-escalating methamphetamine/organized-crime crisis, and a latent (non-violent) iTaukei/Indo-Fijian cleavage.

- civil_military_relations carries a v2.3 provisional baseline scored from coup history and military-in-politics status. It has not been through a full source-disciplined pass and its confidence is set low to reflect that.

Tier: observable - every composite below is confidence-capped at 1.00 (TIER_CAP.observable).

Free press and open civil society - scores rest on directly observable evidence.

A diversified, tourism-led economy above pre-pandemic output, with elevated but declining debt. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Fiscal State │ 0.22 │ 80% │ -2.0 │ -1.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Monetary Independence │ 0.22 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Reserve Currency Intl Monetary │ 0.16 │ 95% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Inflation │ 0.13 │ 75% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Banking Stability │ 0.10 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Trade Actions Capacity │ 0.17 │ 70% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Fiscal State - Public debt ~80% of GDP (down from the 2022 peak but still elevated); the IMF urges growth-friendly consolidation. (IMF CR 25/138; World Bank MPO)

Monetary Independence - A credible basket peg of the Fijian dollar delivers modest stability appropriate to a small open economy, at the cost of independent policy. (IMF; RBF)

Reserve Currency Intl Monetary - The Fijian dollar is not a reserve currency. (definitional)

Inflation - Decelerated through 2024 as the 2023 VAT-hike effect faded - well-managed and low. (IMF 2025)

Banking Stability - Adequately capitalized and stable by regional standards, though small and concentrated. (IMF 2025)

Trade Actions Capacity - Reasonably diversified for the region (tourism, sugar, water, fish, garments, remittances) but tourism-concentrated; open, stable trade policy. (IMF; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +0.36 │ 76% │

│ mid │ +0.59 │ 76% │

│ long │ +0.82 │ 76% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

The region's strongest rule of law and a major press-freedom rebound, with uneven anti-corruption enforcement. (skew: positive)

┌──────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Rule Of Law │ 0.31 │ 70% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Statistical Integrity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Civil Service Capacity │ 0.22 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Press Freedom │ 0.13 │ 80% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Civil-Military Relations │ 0.12 │ 55% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└──────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Rule Of Law - Strongest in Melanesia - CPI 55/100 (50th) with courts asserting themselves (Bainimarama convictions), though enforcement and police integrity are uneven. (TI 2024; Freedom House 2025)

Statistical Integrity - The region's more credible statistical system with IMF/RBF engagement, with small-economy capacity limits. (IMF 2025)

Civil Service Capacity - Functional and the regional administrative hub (PIF HQ, USP), but patronage and capacity gaps persist. (Freedom House 2025)

Press Freedom - A major positive trajectory - RSF 24th (2026), the Pacific's best, after repeal of the punitive 2010 Media Act. (RSF 2026; RNZ)

Civil-Military Relations - The armed forces are an autonomous power centre with a political veto, an independent economic base, or a coup record in living memory. Legislative oversight is nominal.

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.01 │ 65% │

│ mid │ +1.01 │ 65% │

│ long │ +1.01 │ 65% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

A holding democratic restoration over a latent (non-violent) ethnic cleavage and coup-prone history. (skew: symmetric)

┌────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Political Stability │ 0.30 │ 65% │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │ +2.0 │

│ Civil Liberties │ 0.20 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Treatment Non Citizens │ 0.25 │ 55% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

│ Social Cohesion │ 0.15 │ 65% │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │ -1.0 │

│ Demographics │ 0.10 │ 60% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

└────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Political Stability - Democratic restoration holding (a peaceful 2022 transfer, Rabuka governing toward a 2026-27 election), but coalition tensions and a coup-prone history temper confidence. (Freedom House 2025; CSIS)

Civil Liberties - Notably improved post-2022 (media-law repeal, restored institutions), though incumbency tools have been used against the opposition. (Freedom House 2025)

Treatment Non Citizens - A relatively open tourism/expat economy with functioning visa pathways and no systematic mistreatment. (inference; Coface)

Social Cohesion - A latent iTaukei/Indo-Fijian cleavage persists but everyday inter-ethnic trust is high and there is no current violence. (2025 social-cohesion survey; CRS)

Demographics - Stable but with persistent emigration/brain drain (a shrinking Indo-Fijian share). (Fiji Times; World Bank)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +1.35 │ 63% │

│ mid │ +1.35 │ 63% │

│ long │ +1.35 │ 63% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

The diplomatic hub of the Pacific, Western-aligned but non-aligned, conflict-free. (skew: positive)

┌────────────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Alliance Reliability │ 0.40 │ 70% │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │ +3.0 │

│ Conflict Involvement │ 0.35 │ 75% │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │ +4.0 │

│ Sanctions Capital Controls │ 0.25 │ 65% │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │ +1.0 │

└────────────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Alliance Reliability - The diplomatic hub of the Pacific (PIF HQ) with strong Western-aligned ties while engaging China pragmatically. (Lowy; CRS)

Conflict Involvement - No external conflict and no active internal violence; the risk is historical coup recurrence. (Freedom House 2025)

Sanctions Capital Controls - Unsanctioned and open, with routine exchange-control administration typical of a small pegged economy. (IMF/RBF)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ +2.91 │ 71% │

│ mid │ +2.91 │ 71% │

│ long │ +2.91 │ 71% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

The best system in Melanesia, against severe cyclone exposure and a meth-driven crime surge. (skew: negative)

┌────────────────────┬────────┬──────┬──────┬──────┬──────┐

│ Sub-factor │ Weight │ Conf │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├────────────────────┼────────┼──────┼──────┼──────┼──────┤

│ Climate │ 0.20 │ 78% │ -5.0 │ -6.0 │ -7.0 │

│ Healthcare │ 0.30 │ 70% │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │ -2.0 │

│ Infrastructure │ 0.20 │ 65% │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │ 0.0 │

│ Crime Safety │ 0.15 │ 70% │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │ -3.0 │

│ Disaster Insurance │ 0.15 │ 60% │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │ -5.0 │

└────────────────────┴────────┴──────┴──────┴──────┴──────┘

Climate - High cyclone/SLR exposure (TC Winston 2016, the costliest S. Hemisphere cyclone), moderate adaptive capacity, relocating coastal villages. (WB Pacific CCDR)

Healthcare - The best system in Melanesia but cyclone-vulnerable and strained, with rising NCDs and a meth-driven addiction burden. (WHO; 1News)

Infrastructure - The regional standard - functioning ports, an international air hub (Nadi), reasonable main-island roads/grid, weaker on outer islands. (World Bank; ADB)

Crime Safety - A moderate baseline sharply worsening on a methamphetamine epidemic (a record 4.8t bust, Jan 2024) with documented police corruption. (1News; RNZ)

Disaster Insurance - Low catastrophe-insurance penetration against extreme cyclone exposure, partly mitigated by regional pooling (PCRIC). (inference; PCRIC)

Category composite by horizon (categoryComposite, confidence-capped by transparency tier):

┌─────────┬─────────────────┬────────────┐

│ Horizon │ Composite score │ Confidence │

├─────────┼─────────────────┼────────────┤

│ near │ -2.84 │ 69% │

│ mid │ -3.07 │ 69% │

│ long │ -3.30 │ 69% │

└─────────┴─────────────────┴────────────┘

Confidence-weighted composite of every category above (decisionComposite), at each decision's native horizon (HORIZON_BY_DECISION), with the threshold reading (readingFor).

┌──────────┬─────────┬───────┬────────────┬─────────┐

│ Decision │ Horizon │ Score │ Confidence │ Reading │

├──────────┼─────────┼───────┼────────────┼─────────┤

│ Living │ long │ +0.51 │ 67% │ mixed │

│ Assets │ mid │ +0.74 │ 70% │ mixed │

│ Currency │ near │ +0.89 │ 72% │ mixed │

└──────────┴─────────┴───────┴────────────┴─────────┘

Same weighting projected across all three horizons (near 1-3y, mid 3-7y, long 5-10y):

┌──────────┬───────┬───────┬───────┐

│ Decision │ Near │ Mid │ Long │

├──────────┼───────┼───────┼───────┤

│ Living │ +0.50 │ +0.50 │ +0.51 │

│ Assets │ +0.67 │ +0.74 │ +0.82 │

│ Currency │ +0.89 │ +1.04 │ +1.19 │

└──────────┴───────┴───────┴───────┘